Realistically, How Long Can We Expect a Model S to Last?

[astrotoy]

My first really luxury car, a 1991 Lexus LS400 bought new in 1990, lasted 16 years and 340K miles. The engine was never replaced, though many parts of the car had been. One thing that was really getting worn was the driver's seat and the 6 way power seat (IIRC) was not working too well at the end (and the leather was pretty worn). I normally had the car serviced at the Lexus dealer, so I paid prices probably similar to the Tesla hourly rates. However, it was much, much cheaper than buying another car.

I think that forecasting out 20 years is a good academic exercise, especially if it gives a good rationalization to spend the money on a Model S. However, the reality is that you don't know what you (and your wife) will be like in 20 years - including your economic condition. You also may be tired of the car by then. My Model S has a very good chance of lasting 20 years. Not sure I can say the same about me! And my daughter will have probably taken away my fob by then. Hopefully I can convert the Model S to an autonomous drive model by then, if I can remember where I want to go.

 

[Olle]

The other factor I would consider is that in 10 years, the replacement battery is likely to be significantly better performing that the current batteries. This is all hypothetical, not practical, so:

Question: if you drove a 60, and the battery went bad, could Tesla just swap in an 85kW batter with no other changes? (Obviously at some cost)

Question 2: With the *hypothetical* battery replacement technology, could one swap out a 60kW for an 85kW, say for a long road trip?

For the short term, if they do introduce a larger battery for the Model X, could be pay to get it upgraded into the Model S?

Question 1: Yes it has already been done. Today it is more expensive than trading to an 85, but that might change when bigger batteries come and even more so if a resale market for batteries emerge.
2: Yes Elon said that at one of the swap presentations.
3: Since S and X are built on the same platform there will be no special batteries for X. When a bigger one comes, it will be for both.

 

[swegman]

Don't overlook the cost of the cooling system. The car uses a heat pump, basically the same as what many houses use. A heat pump located outside has a typical lifespan of 15-20 years. A heat pump located inside the house (i.e., a geothermal heat pump) has a typical lifespan of 20-25 years. There are also numerous pumps associated with circulating the cooling fluid. These parts may be expensive.

Then we have the 17 inch touchscreen cost to consider if it fails, along with numerous other electrical features in the car. And lets not forget the air suspension.

 

[Olle]

Air suspension is an option though on Model S and ICE cars, so than can be simplified from the calculation

 

[Lloyd]

There were previous posts comparing Model S serviceable life to aircraft. The airframe stays usable but the subsystems (avionics, engine, interior, etc) get upgraded. I believe that this is possible but not necessarily economically wise. New aircraft are incredibly expensive, even a simple 172. It is usually better to refurbish an older aircraft, provided the airframe is sound, than to purchase new. Those same economics may not work for the S. If it costs me $40,000 (arbitrary number) to refurbish an S (new battery, motor, upholstery, etc) then I'm likely to buy new, particularly to get new features or more powerful electronics.

Someone mentioned that aluminum doesn't rust. While true, it does corrode (rust is just the specific corrosion of iron alloys such as steel).

Aircraft are not a fair comparison as up to 80% of the cost of a new aircraft is for Product Liability, not just the aircraft and it's systems.

 

[Ardie]

I suppose we could use the exact same argument about cell phones.
They have very few moving parts, a battery, and not much else to wear out.
As long as it isn't in an accident, or end up in water, it ought to last a lifetime.

But who among still uses a 20-year old cell phone?

It isn't that they fail mechanically, they just fall out of favor with the owner, who wants something new.
They lose their appeal after a couple of years, and the next model has all the features that you didn't know you wanted until you saw them. A memory for a list of names and phone numbers. A camera. Video. A big display screen. GPS. Internet access. Apps. A built-in assistant.

Today, so the car has cup holders, GPS, Bluetooth, USB ports, backup camera, online updates.
But 10 years from now the latest car may go 500 - 1000 miles on a single charge, ride on tires that never go flat, have an autonomous-drive feature, hold a conversation with you, and may even have color-changing paint to suit your whim of the day.

-- Ardie
"Okay Car, go pick up the pizza and bring it back."

 

[Brass Guy]

But who among still uses a 20-year old cell phone?

I had to retire my last (flip) cell phone after about 12 years. The hinge was getting sloppy so the backlight kept turning on in my pocket draining the battery.

My Model S will last at least 30 years. After 80, I'll have to review my ability to drive safely.

 

[scaesare]

The car uses a heat pump...

That's been surmised, but I've not seen it confirmed from any authoritative sources I've ssen. Do you have a source that that?

 

[ckessel]

I really hope 20 years. This was 3x my normal car cost and I normally keep cars for 10 years. There is no way I can afford to replace it with another Model S down the road. This was a once in a lifetime splurge for me.

My biggest concern is what happens when the center or dash screen fails 7 or 8 years from now, will replacements be available?

 

[donv]

Of course they'll be available-- and probably from third parties, as well. There are, what more than 50,000 Model Ss on the road? That's a pretty decent market for replacement parts. Might not be cheap, though-- but you may be able to get it rebuilt. Often, the parts that fail are the connections, and those can be rebuilt.

My biggest concern is what happens when the center or dash screen fails 7 or 8 years from now, will replacements be available?

 

[skboston]

I wouldn't worry about the screen at all, I have LCD screens more than 10 years old and PC's that are over 15 years old and work just as brand new. There will be ones that fail here and there, but it won't be a huge thing and I'm sure Tesla will offer them further down the road. If you think about it, it's a pretty cheap system, some 17" touch screen and nVIDIA Tegra and some flash memory and all of these components are relatively cheap.
No moving parts really helps in the long run.

If you're a frequent driver/commuter with over 30000 miles driven each year, you can really see the savings over longer ownership period. My C Class I previously owned for 5 years costed me about $35000 in gas and maintenance, I consider myself lucky enough not to encounter any major breakdowns or repairs I couldn't fix myself.

I expect the car to last more than 1990 Toyota's and in much better shape inside and out.

 

[robby]

Thank you for the comments, everyone. Keep them coming! I'm only responding directly to select posts where I have something to add or clarify, but I appreciate everyone's input.

Robby:
Nice Spreadsheet.... a few questions however....


1) Insurance rates per vehicle appear to be ignored... in real life are they the same? I would suspect that insuring a $100K car vs. a $40K car would have some sort of difference?


2) My state/town has a personal property tax which is the current mill rate X the insurance underwriters blue book value of the car. Again the higher the value of the auto, the greater the annual tax. Not trivial.


3) Have you forgotten the Long Term Maintenance Plans, their cost and also their effect on annual maintenance? For example my Volvo XC60 has cost me $0 in maintenance since I purchased it 3 years ago. Bumper to Bumper, tires, wipers, oil, you name it....


Thanks
Art

1) They are not the same but the difference is somewhat insignificant relative to the difference in excise taxes. We are not yet sure whether we will be registering in MA or NH, but I will add that to the spreadsheet once more is known.


2) This varies from state to state. In MA it is based on MSRP, which is what I have in the spreadsheet.


3) Will research and do this. I suspect it won't make much difference over the lifetime of the car because the major expenses come later, but good catch. Thanks.

Some observations:
• You missed the air suspension and Pano roof in the list of expensive-to-repair components.
• Tesla will charge for data from year 4 (iirc), nav updates from year 7.
• Minor fixes at Tesla labor rates are expensive.
• No third party provider for Tesla components.
• The battery estimate seems way too low - would budget for north of $30k unless they introduce some kind of recycle scheme.
• Electricity prices may go up over the next 20 years, i.e. to compensate for loss of fossil fuel tax revenue or to pay for renewable projects.


Sorry if this seems overly negative, just trying to cover all the bases!

Not overly negative at all; this is exactly what I asked for. Great points on air suspension and pano roof (not sure if I would buy these). I didn't know Tesla plans to charge for data and maps; will investigate and add those costs. I think we will see third party providers for Tesla components as the brand becomes more of a household name and their vehicles become more popular. I think retired batteries will have significan trade value and thus my $10k figure, after 10 years of cost reductions, will prove reasonable. Electricity is indeed a wildcard. I think the price of gas will outpace it but I agree that those missing tax dollars will have to come from somewhere.

@OP: Great post.
How about coolant leaks? More or less repairs than ICE cars?


Regarding the Aluminum bodywork I wouldn't agree with "infinite" lifetime. While it will probably last much longer than a steel ditto, you can observe plenty of corrosion on old Land Rover alu bodies.


While electronic components will eventually fail, which is the case also with ICE cars, I am more hopeful for Tesla. Elon says that he doesn't want to make exuberant profits on spares and service. What kills the economy in repairing many old ICE is that they charge 50 times cost for some unique components that you can't find at generic parts outlets.

I'll investigate the cooling system. IME metal pipes are less leak-prone than rubber hoses and clamps, but I need to research this more. Fair point on the aluminum bodywork - "infinite" is certainly an overstatement; by that I really mean I expect it to outlast everything else. I agree about electronic components, and I think that as the Tesla market grows, finding parts will not be a problem.

My first really luxury car, a 1991 Lexus LS400 bought new in 1990, lasted 16 years and 340K miles. The engine was never replaced, though many parts of the car had been. One thing that was really getting worn was the driver's seat and the 6 way power seat (IIRC) was not working too well at the end (and the leather was pretty worn). I normally had the car serviced at the Lexus dealer, so I paid prices probably similar to the Tesla hourly rates. However, it was much, much cheaper than buying another car.

Good point and same experience here, until recently when we learned our car needed frame welding.

I suppose we could use the exact same argument about cell phones.
They have very few moving parts, a battery, and not much else to wear out.
As long as it isn't in an accident, or end up in water, it ought to last a lifetime.


But who among still uses a 20-year old cell phone?


It isn't that they fail mechanically, they just fall out of favor with the owner, who wants something new.
They lose their appeal after a couple of years, and the next model has all the features that you didn't know you wanted until you saw them. A memory for a list of names and phone numbers. A camera. Video. A big display screen. GPS. Internet access. Apps. A built-in assistant.


Today, so the car has cup holders, GPS, Bluetooth, USB ports, backup camera, online updates.
But 10 years from now the latest car may go 500 - 1000 miles on a single charge, ride on tires that never go flat, have an autonomous-drive feature, hold a conversation with you, and may even have color-changing paint to suit your whim of the day.


-- Ardie
"Okay Car, go pick up the pizza and bring it back."

My problem with the cell phone analogy is that unlike cars, cell phones are no longer built for their original purpose. They are not "phones"; they're small computers that happen to be able to make phone calls. The percentage of time I use my phone as a "phone" is approximate zero. The percentage of time I use my car as a "car" is 100 and will be for the foreseeable future. You make a fair point that self-driving cars may cause me to re-evaluate whether I want to keep my car. If that happens, we'll be at a point with automobiles where technology moves faster than physical hardware can keep up, and cars will effectively be disposable. For the sake of the environmentalist in me (and a big part of my motivation to get a Tesla), I hope that's not what happens.

 

[russman]

As much people believe the cars are low maintenance, the fact that the extended warranty costs so much (and has a deductible) and the service plans are still high, gives me concern. There's a lot of gadget things that might break in the Tesla. I didn't get the air suspension because of that, but things like AC, door handles, windows, trunk, sensors, etc will become an issue.

 

[swegman]

The personnel at the Rockville SC told me the HVAC is essentially a heat pump unit. And don't quote me on the price for the touchscreen, but I seem to recall an owner that had it replaced and indicated the cost was around $1700.

 

[Genebe]

I have a 1914Overland that still runs, although it's been restored and has probably never been a daily driver over the last 100 years. Things WILL last if they are maintained. And there's not much to maintain on a Tesla. (I like that)

Fact: Electronics age & deteriorate. I've had 20-30 year old cars that used a lot of plastic in them, including in the electrical components,which were a challenge to repair. But what is undeniable is that components today are MUCH better designed, and I'd predict that they will age much better than the stuff we're used to from the 70's & 80's. I can see the electronics in a modern car lasting 20 years without being touched.

I'm a car guy, and while the Tesla fascinates me, I still look at that ~$100Kprice and can't help thinking of what else I could buy for that money (i.e., a used Ferrari Testarossa and a new Ford F150 to use when I had to tow it to the repair shop). And I can't ignore that, with the same money, I could get through the next 10-15 years with a much more luxurious car with more accessories (i.e., a Mercedes S550), or 2-3 nicely equipped Asian cars and enjoy that "new car" feeling every few years.

Very very few modern cars will ever reach that 500K mark, primarily becausethey'll be involved in a collision (not a light fender-bender) at some point in their life, and that's usually the beginning of the end for them, even if they are repaired.

But I think our family will be biting the bullet within the next year or so and buying a Tesla,which will be our “nice” car, leaving the Prius for daily commute duties (Loved hearing the 300K+ reliability for them!). The “buy” point for me will be when I can make my 250 mile roadtrip, even in the cold winter, without worrying about recharging, and the car has some of the more common options found on a new Hyundai or Toyota (blind spot monitor, active cruise,etc.). I’ll expect it to last 20+ years,after which I’ll probably be replacing it with some sort of Google-built, flux-capacitor powered self-driving box that will parked outside my retirement home.

 

[iadbound]

Elon Musk strikes me as the sort of leader that wasn't envisioning planned obsolescence when putting together the Model S. Since his grand plan is to have as many electric cars out there as possible, I like to think he imagined old Model S cars making their way to all corners of the globe -- especially places where few people could afford to buy them new. Thus, I'm hoping that the car was designed to soldier on no matter how old and tattered.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Olle]

not a big item but how often do you need to change oil in the gearbox?

 

[jerry33]

not a big item but how often do you need to change oil in the gearbox?

My thoughts are:

If it's 100% totally sealed or has a good dust filter, then 75,000 miles is likely.
If there is no filter and air enters and leaves as the oil temperature changes then 40,000 miles.

 

[physicsfita]

My thoughts are:

If it's 100% totally sealed or has a good dust filter, then 75,000 miles is likely.
If there is no filter and air enters and leaves as the oil temperature changes then 40,000 miles.

I asked a rep in the Miami area about that almost two years ago -- I'm having trouble remembering the exact numbers, but I want to say it was something like 15 years or 500,000 miles. Of course, I don't know how authoritative he was (or my memory, for that matter).

 

[WhiteStar]

Apparently Elon is still driving prototype no.2 - Old Faithful - presumably manufactured in 2007? I wonder how many miles it's done & how it has travelled. Good subject for an official Tesla video.