Realistically, How Long Can We Expect a Model S to Last?

[Kermit]

If I recall my Properties of Materials class, steel does not fatigue unless it is stressed beyond a certain threshold. Aluminum has no fatigue threshold; it accumulates even small repetitive stresses. I have an aluminum bicycle that was quite stiff when new, but after 30000 miles it is as flexible as a noodle.

Plastics also degrade with age, even without repetitive stress or exposure. I have old (25-30 yr) items like flashlights and boxes and such that simply crack when I use them, even though they've been stored unused indoors for years. Plastic connectors and fittings in cars are exposed to serious heat and UV and tend to fail even without structural loads. Try unplugging a bunch of clips and onnectors in the engine bay of a 15 year old car and see how many stay intact.

Those 100 year old cars had no plastics to crack and no electrical connectors to fail. of course, their wooden frames may have rotted ;-)

So although Teslas wont fail due to burnt rod bearings or worn clutches or rusty chassis, the aluminum and plastics can still age ungracefully.

 

[alexkiritz]

The “buy” point for me will be when I can make my 250 mile roadtrip, even in the cold winter, without worrying about recharging, and the car has some of the more common options found on a new Hyundai or Toyota (blind spot monitor, active cruise,etc.). [/FONT][/COLOR]

Luckily for you they do have those more common options now, so you're halfway there.

 

[Genebe]

Luckily for you they do have those more common options now, so you're halfway there.

I hope more than halfway!

 

[Lloyd]

If I recall my Properties of Materials class, steel does not fatigue unless it is stressed beyond a certain threshold. Aluminum has no fatigue threshold; it accumulates even small repetitive stresses. I have an aluminum bicycle that was quite stiff when new, but after 30000 miles it is as flexible as a noodle.

This will depend on the formulation of aluminum for the various pieces in the car. Some formulations are very resistant to this.

http://www.keytometals.com/page.aspx?ID=CheckArticle&site=ktn&NM=227

 

[robby]

I found this a little disconcerting. When asked whether Tesla is trying to increase the lifespan of the car (for sustainability purposes), the Head of Product said this:

"We're not trying to change how people buy cars, in terms of how long it will last for them, or like you're saying, 'I'm going to keep my car for 30 years.' We're at the point where we're just trying to build the company out rather than work through that issue."

This is a bummer because as I explained in my OP, I think the potential lifespan of a Tesla is one of its greatest (but least talked about) benefits. I understand broadly that Tesla's mission is to show what electric cars can do, but it seems to me that better sustainability and a longer product lifetime are a big part of that. I inferred from Tesla's free software updates that part of their model is making people feel their car can get better long after their purchase. The combination of this quote and expensive and unavailable hardware retrofits makes me wonder if I've misjudged them in this capacity. It's especially peculiar given their excellent eight-year warranty. I can't quite make sense of the cognitive dissonance.

Tesla Model S Head of Product Design (Behind the Scenes) - YouTube at 48:10

 

[bullgates]

First and foremost a business needs to fill a role in the current market or create a market. With Tesla you have overlap into both fields. Unfortunately with an unknown product you have to take the risk if you want the reward. With Tesla you have a firm/product that is relatively unknown in it's current application. We know about the products that make up the car and company to some degree because they have been used other applications and industry. What we don't know is if those items if used in proper application that will create a synergy that ensures a disruptive and lasting influence in the auto industry. As a purchaser of cars I would hope (as everyone should) that Tesla is successful in creating a product and personnel synergy because you should see better products across the market.

Company growth and product growth should be done in parallel to maintain an effective sustainability.

The reality is that you have to take a "leap of educated faith."