Really Really on the fence . . .

[mbhforum]

I ordered my 2015 85D with AP1 with only 10k miles yesterday as opposed to ordering a new 60D with AP2. I struggled with this decision for a couple of weeks.

My decisions came down to this:

1) For the same money, I was getting a faster car, better range, nicer interior trim, pano roof and power liftgate in the CPO car compared to AP2.0 and maybe more comfortable seats in a new 60D. AP 2.0 is unproven so far and there is a lot of debate in the forums about how comfortable the new seating is. From what I've read, CPO cars with very low mileage are delivered practically brand new. I don't think I will feel like I am getting a used car.

2) I will be paying less interest now as I will finance less and not have to wait for a tax credit.

3). If your worried about depreciation, the worst thing you can do is buy a new car. This goes with every car manufacturer. My CPO car was a 100k car a year ago and I am now getting it for 72k. Need I say more?

4) Like a lot of people in this forum, I am in the technology field, and when buying gadgets or electronics, I always try to buy the latest and greatest. I'm the type to buy the nicer 4K tv as opposed to the 1080p. Sometimes, this comes at a cost of being on the cutting edge with newer technologies that take years to pan out. For a 70k purchase, I didn't want to take that risk. Being patient sometimes does pay off with technology. I am sure AP 2 will be amazing and better than AP1, but it could take awhile for it to show its merit. Do you want to pay while waiting? Or enjoy something proven for less money?

 

[LastGas]

Free Supercharging has been extended until January 15, so you still have a time if you hurry. I'd wager that by the time you get your car, a significant part of AutoPilot will be available. The slickest feature is traffic-aware cruise control, and that's available now for AP2 cars.

Tesla is extending unlimited Supercharging for cars ordered in the next 2 weeks

 

[Ormond]

After I ordered my Model X, AP 2.0 was announced. I debated cancelling but I have a 2 year lease. I'm getting what I ordered. I gave up features in my prior luxury car to go electric. I paid a premium to further Tesla in its goals.

If I bought AP 2.0, I'd expect it to do a better job than AP 1.0--eventually. Because I read the forums, I know it's hobbled now. I wouldn't pay for FSD, because I have low expectations. If it's out in two years, I'll get it in my next Tesla.

The Summons feature is a neat trick, but has big limitations. I'm okay with that because I'm aware of them. Summons is like a nine year old. You can ask it to do something, but you have to supervise.

None of the driving aids are fool-proof. The driver's responsible. Know what your buying. I love my Tesla, but it's not for everyone.

 

[Electroman]

With a 90 mile highway commute you should be Nuts not to buy a Tesla. There is no luxury, no amount of soft leather in the world that would compare to the luxury of having the car drive you daily to your office and back. What price would you pay for a commute that would be far less stress - especially when the traffic is heavy.

Every day when I hit the road back home at peak 5 pm evening traffic, as my Tesla impeccably drives me through the miles of stop and go traffic, I look around and see the plush interiors of my fellow commuters on their BMWs and Mercedes and chuckle to myself and mutter - what idiots !

 

[HX_Guy]

Every day when I hit the road back home at peak 5 pm evening traffic, as my Tesla impeccably drives me through the miles of stop and go traffic, I look around and see the plush interiors of my fellow commuters on their BMWs and Mercedes and chuckle to myself and mutter - what idiots !

Don't be too quick to judge - Mercedes also now has TACC with Autosteer and auto lane change. My wife's new E300 has it, and it works without any +0 MPH over the speed limit limitations.

 

[Electroman]

Don't be too quick to judge - Mercedes also now has TACC with Autosteer and auto lane change. My wife's new E300 has it, and it works without any +0 MPH over the speed limit limitations.

Yes I have driven that. There is a reason why there is no speed limit restriction. Because it is a joke, that you would not use it even for a single day for one full commute, why bother with any restrictions?

 

[Az_Rael]

3). If your worried about depreciation, the worst thing you can do is buy a new car. This goes with every car manufacturer. My CPO car was a 100k car a year ago and I am now getting it for 72k. Need I say more?

This is the direction I took as well. My car was over $100k 3 years ago, and I got it for about half of the original sticker.
I figure in three years, I will be ready for an AP2 car after the next latest and greatest has been released.

 

[HX_Guy]

Yes I have driven that. There is a reason why there is no speed limit restriction. Because it is a joke, that you would not use it even for a single day for one full commute, why bother with any restrictions?

I think it works fine - but then I have no reference for comparison since my HW2 Tesla has no AP whatsoever at the moment.

 

[Andyw2100]

I mean for the rest of the community, what was promised for AP that didn't get delivered?

At the D launch, Tesla demo'd cars that were automatically adjusting their speed based on speed limit signs. That functionality does not yet exist, as demonstrated. (It exists now as speed reduction when autosteer is engaged on undivided highways, but that is not at all what was demonstrated.)

I'll include a couple of videos of the test rides below.

The other thing that has not been delivered is the car self driving on private property. Musk promised the car would come pick you up. We're all still waiting for that.

I'll also include the D event video. Forward to 9:50 to hear Musk talk about the car picking you up on private property.

D Event Video:

Test Ride Videos At The D Event:

 

[Watts Son]

You're not risking $75K said the CFO, there will be SOME residual. Sounds like you're talking yourself out of the car.That's fine it will definitely get better not worse over time and if you like the 3 you won't have to risk as much to get in.

 

[JRMW]

I think you should wait.

You have said yourself, Tesla Model S is worth $40k to you without EAP

None of us know how good or bad EAP will be, or when it will be released.

There is no reason for you to gamble. There is no time crunch.

Just wait until EAP is up and running. Then see if Tesla with EAP is worth the extra $30k or not.

If not, wait until FSD is up and running. Then see if EAP and FSD are worth the extra $30k

I've noted that the people most unhappy with Tesla are those who bought with the expectation that Tesla would deliver everything Elon tweets about, on time and without limitation, in addition to being better than every other car on the road that they can possibly think of.

Those that are satisfied buy based on what a Tesla is now, happy that at some point their car will improve, knowing that future new cars will be even better than their car, AND knowing that their car will have some trade offs not seen in other car makes.

I just think you're setting yourself up for frustration and heartbreak if you buy now with the expectation that EAP will be up and running anytime soon.

 

[Andyw2100]

One thing I haven't seen anyone talk about in this thread is how safe the Model S is, even without any of the electronic safety features.

What I mean is that in a catastrophic crash, it is pretty much common knowledge that the Tesla Model S, and its occupants, will fare better than they would have in a similar crash in another vehicle. There are countless examples of Tesla drivers and those in the Tesla walking away from serious crashes, and crediting the Tesla for saving their lives, or at least keeping them out of the hospital.

How do you put a value on that?

 

[Pinot.Noir]

Those that are satisfied buy based on what a Tesla is now, happy that at some point their car will improve, knowing that future new cars will be even better than their car, AND knowing that their car will have some trade offs not seen in other car makes.
.

It is with this in mind that you should consider that very few people are going to start threads that state "I'm so happy with my car and have no issues whatsoever", but those people do exist.

 

[azred]

This thread reminds of my days before arthritis caused me to give up motorcycles. If I have to explain, you wouldn't understand was the stock answer Harley owners gave to those who couldn't see the logic in buying one of them versus other less pricey bikes. Same situation applies here. What I can't understand is why the OP comes to an Internet forum mostly populated by Tesla true believers and wants us to explain why he should or should not buy an S. He would be a fool to spend over $70k on a Tesla given his appraisal of their worth. It's funny to read some of the responses in this thread trying to win him over. I couldn't in a million years convince anyone why he should buy a $70k S vs. $40k Lexus. Heck I couldn't even say it is wiser to buy a $40k Lexus vs a $25k Honda Accord hybrid. Luxury cars are all about emotion not logic. While I haven't seen Tesla tatoos ala Harley, it wouldn't shock me. I like being part of this latest cult and don't care if it makes sense.

 

[Science fan]

Hey all, been reading a lot lately at all the good and bad press. Just can't quite get the balls to pull the trigger.

Here is my situation, Not quite as willing to spend the big bucks as most of you are. I've been driving a Lexus GS350 for a while. For a $40k car it felt and drove great. Obviously the S is not quite as comfortable but with the next gen seats its getting close. I'm currently looking at making a move on a S60. I'm trying to keep costs low. I've read a couple threads on how to keep things down. From my perspective to spend $70,000 on a car it must absolutely do everything as advertised, or at least be able to do so sooner rather than later. For me that means, Summon on AP2 in a tight garage, EAP, FSD on the horizon. My commute is about 50 miles each way of which 45 of that is Interstate. I plan on using the hell out of EAP when it hits AP1 ability.

Anyway, I thought I was all but out when they ended free Super Charging for Jan 1, I know it's not a huge value but again to me I need EVERY thing I can get to justify the cost. Without the auto driving capability this feels like a $40,000 car to me at best. EV adds value to me as well as FSD. The question is, is it really worth the gamble? It would be one thing if there was a $10,000 discount right now for all of those taking the "leap of faith" that EAP and FSD will work at some point. But at the current cost we are paying the price as if its 100% for sure happening.

Basically what I'm getting to is: What is your gut feeling about Elon's ability to deliver? Do you guys really think FSD will happen soon? What are the odds that they release AP2, do some extensive testing, and the regulators say . . . 8 cameras? We'll approve if you add a 9th. Something that is not software related. Screw the $3,000 FSD upgrade, I'm driving a car that feels really OK, but not great and no longer has one of its major redeeming qualities. I work for a fellow Silicon Valley software company, I'm not used to press releases without 100% confidence on an impending release. Think hearing about the Iphone 8 with all the cool new features that you won't be able to get for another year at best.

As I see it, worst case for AP2 is that it will work no better than AP1. I have AP1, and it is all I need or want for the next decade or so. Double negative warning: That said, there is no way that AP2 will not outperform AP1, and most likely to a very significant degree. I do not want you to spend more than you can comfortably afford but, if you buy the Tesla, it is very unlikely that you will come to regret your decision.

 

[LoL Rick]

I'm going to take the other side of this: Please do not buy a Tesla. It is very clear that your primary interest is in self-driving and there is no guarantee when that will be released. The first iteration of Autopilot was a full year between announcement and release, with plenty of people complaining on this forum about making their huge monthly payments on a car that did not have all the promised features.

Second, with a 100 mile per day commute, the value of this car is going to drop like a stone. I have a 72 mile round trip, and have done a couple long road trips, resulting in 62,000 miles on my 2014 Model S 85. How much of my $100K initial investment do you think is left? Maybe half if I'm really lucky.

Rant/
Whether or not one believes in climate change, they must face the fact that oil is a finite resource. We have to transition away from oil onto something else, and someone has to start. Tesla started. That is the reason to buy the car.
/Rant

 

[RollinMS]

3). If your worried about depreciation, the worst thing you can do is buy a new car. This goes with every car manufacturer. My CPO car was a 100k car a year ago and I am now getting it for 72k. Need I say more?

I guess I shouldn't be that worried about the depreciation, I have priced out a S60 with a few options for around $77k before the tax credit. On the lease tab it projects $930 lease payment for 36 months. After the down payment the worst case scenario I'm looking at a loss of about $42,000 if I did that and turned it back in. Looking at EV-CPO That looks to be about right with asking prices of S85's in the high 50's. Which I assume is around the 50% depreciation, pretty high if I'm reading that right.

With a 90 mile highway commute you should be Nuts not to buy a Tesla. There is no luxury, no amount of soft leather in the world that would compare to the luxury of having the car drive you daily to your office and back. What price would you pay for a commute that would be far less stress - especially when the traffic is heavy.

Every day when I hit the road back home at peak 5 pm evening traffic, as my Tesla impeccably drives me through the miles of stop and go traffic, I look around and see the plush interiors of my fellow commuters on their BMWs and Mercedes and chuckle to myself and mutter - what idiots !

Very true, that's why I say the TACC with auto steer is worth more than the $4k option to me. I feel like the bulk of the money for that feature is already in the car. In all honesty, this is the A+ number 1 feature that is keeping me in the game. To me that feature alone is worth the $15k premium.

You're not risking $75K said the CFO, there will be SOME residual. Sounds like you're talking yourself out of the car.That's fine it will definitely get better not worse over time and if you like the 3 you won't have to risk as much to get in.

Couldn't agree more, You are right on with that. I guess in my head I'm saying "is $75k worth it" but thats not the point. When you say, It will get better not worse. Do you mean you expect them to hold value better than expected?

I think you should wait.
You have said yourself, Tesla Model S is worth $40k to you without EAP
None of us know how good or bad EAP will be, or when it will be released.
There is no reason for you to gamble. There is no time crunch.
Just wait until EAP is up and running. Then see if Tesla with EAP is worth the extra $30k or not.
If not, wait until FSD is up and running. Then see if EAP and FSD are worth the extra $30k
I've noted that the people most unhappy with Tesla are those who bought with the expectation that Tesla would deliver everything Elon tweets about, on time and without limitation, in addition to being better than every other car on the road that they can possibly think of.
Those that are satisfied buy based on what a Tesla is now, happy that at some point their car will improve, knowing that future new cars will be even better than their car, AND knowing that their car will have some trade offs not seen in other car makes.
I just think you're setting yourself up for frustration and heartbreak if you buy now with the expectation that EAP will be up and running anytime soon.

Yeah I think that pretty much sums it up. I feel confident EAP will be good, definitely good enough to get me up and down I75/275 every day. Maybe not so good on dodgy roads with little markings. Also bonus, pretty much the entire stretch I travel has been undergone recent construction and is all very well marked. I feel like this will be an ideal use case for EAP. That's said 90% of my trip should be accounted for. It's not that I'm trying to talk myself out of it. I'm just trying to be as pragmatic as possible.

This thread reminds of my days before arthritis caused me to give up motorcycles. If I have to explain, you wouldn't understand was the stock answer Harley owners gave to those who couldn't see the logic in buying one of them versus other less pricey bikes. Same situation applies here. What I can't understand is why the OP comes to an Internet forum mostly populated by Tesla true believers and wants us to explain why he should or should not buy an S. He would be a fool to spend over $70k on a Tesla given his appraisal of their worth. It's funny to read some of the responses in this thread trying to win him over. I couldn't in a million years convince anyone why he should buy a $70k S vs. $40k Lexus. Heck I couldn't even say it is wiser to buy a $40k Lexus vs a $25k Honda Accord hybrid. Luxury are all abiut emotion nit logic. While I haven't seen Tesla tatoos ala Harley, it wouldn't shock me. I like being part of this latest cult and don't care if it makes sense.

I was actually pleasantly surprised in all the responses that I hadn't heard anyone say something like this. I knew there would be that one guy. I'm not sure I can agree with Luxury being " all abiut emotion nit logic" I have 15 Honda Accord sport, at 13 GS350 and a 15 Escalade Premium in the driveway right now. The Accord isn't anywhere near the GS FSport. I get that to each their own, but something about the ergonomics of the GS fit me. After driving the S for a full 24 hours I would have to say its close. Not great but coupled with the other cool features I can deal. Which is no less than amazing to me that Tesla has come this far in such a short time.
I guess I don't really need any more convincing, I was just trying to flush out if anyone had a substantial reason why they really don't see EAP and FSD happening. I know its a gamble, I'm not looking for a psychic.

In the end I think what I will do is just keep watching. Assuming there are no "Model S's driving through living rooms with the new software and everybody seems happy. At best I'll sit back until 11:59pm on the 15th before placing my order. Free supercharging is another great feature to have for me, though I'm not making that the deal breaker.

Thanks everyone for their input. I think I may be ready to take the dive.

 

[RollinMS]

I'm going to take the other side of this: Please do not buy a Tesla. It is very clear that your primary interest is in self-driving and there is no guarantee when that will be released. The first iteration of Autopilot was a full year between announcement and release, with plenty of people complaining on this forum about making their huge monthly payments on a car that did not have all the promised features.

Second, with a 100 mile per day commute, the value of this car is going to drop like a stone. I have a 72 mile round trip, and have done a couple long road trips, resulting in 62,000 miles on my 2014 Model S 85. How much of my $100K initial investment do you think is left? Maybe half if I'm really lucky.

Rant/
Whether or not one believes in climate change, they must face the fact that oil is a finite resource. We have to transition away from oil onto something else, and someone has to start. Tesla started. That is the reason to buy the car.
/Rant

Good point, I see you are in the Pasco/Hillsborough area. Any issues with TACC on your AP1? Do you travel 75/275 often?

 

[Watts Son]

Do you mean you expect them to hold value better than expected?

No, I mean the car will get better over time..although I do think cars with free unlimited supercharging will depreciate less than ones bought in two weeks. Now I think you're wanting us to talk you in to buying one. If that's the case read below, if not stop here.

Dear Rollins, get your checkbook out of your purse and grow a set. These cars are light years better NOW than your lexus or most any car on the road today. Maybe you need the next gen seats to make it seem more "luxury" or worth your money but the truth is, it's the guts that most people are buying the car for. Want to go fast to impress your friends ? Sure go Ludicrous but no real need. It'll easily keep pace with your current ride and you will blow past gas stations and be able to take your eyes off the road once on a while and enjoy some form of AP in the near future. Will you be sad that you don't have the latest crap in a year or two, just like your phone, yes you will. Will you get over it and not pollute the Gulf ? We all hope so...looks like you may even still qualify for free lifetime SC but the cojones will have to drop really soon.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

That's kinda the point. Let's say $40-$50k. All electric adds $10k for cost, environmental impact, performance, Free charging is worth something. The safety features add, when it comes down to it a 75% FSD car and I sleep at night with a ~$75k car. I mean for those of you driving one, what are you comparing comfort to? Go sit in a Lexus or similar Luxury brand, its not even close. I hate to say it but I don't know from a comfort level its even on par with Cadillac, which underwhelms. If the seats were crazy comfortable this would be a no brainer. I'd gladly be buying a P90D and laughing my way all the way to the quarter mile finish line. It would be worth every penny.

Go buy something else. I dare you. If you've put this much thought into it, you're already hooked.