Rear Wheel Drive P85 is a Missed Opportunity for Tesla

[mnx]

If my P85 got totalled I would be at a bit of a loss on what to replace it with. I'd probably try and find a used P85. I dunno maybe I'm in the minority but I guess I'm an enthusiast who likes to go sideways.

I think they should re-introduce the P85 with 2 motors in the rear for torque vectoring, and to split up the heat load so it can run longer on the track.

 

[MsElectric]

As I've said all along P85s might be preferable for enthusiasts that like to drive their cars sideways

It is still my opinion that the vast majority of Tesla customers will prefer the superior traction, performance, and safety that comes with AWD and any "missed opportunity" by Tesla not having a RWD P version is minimal...

 

[AmpedRealtor]

It is still my opinion that the vast majority of Tesla customers will prefer the superior traction, performance, and safety that comes with AWD and any "missed opportunity" by Tesla not having a RWD P version is minimal...

Yes, opinion would be the key word here.

 

[dirkhh]

Also, gotta agree with Todd, I think there's a performance niche there. The price niche is covered by the 85D, but the P85 rwd at same price holds more appeal for SOME buyers.

I think we can all agree on this (even the people who think that the numbers somehow prove that the market for it is small - there still is appeal for SOME buyers).

Maybe a coupe that comes in P85 and P85D variants? Or, a high end P3?

The Model S coupe. Soon after Model X, Model 3, Roadster refresh, small SUV and pickup truck. Let's start a forum for the coupe...
Seriously - I think right now Tesla is taking the calculated risk that even the people for whom such a car would have more appeal will find something else in Tesla's tiny line-up that will keep them entertained for a while...

- - - Updated - - -

If my P85 got totalled I would be at a bit of a loss on what to replace it with. I'd probably try and find a used P85. I dunno maybe I'm in the minority but I guess I'm an enthusiast who likes to go sideways.

I think they should re-introduce the P85 with 2 motors in the rear for torque vectoring, and to split up the heat load so it can run longer on the track.

This is an interesting point. What happens if you total your four months old P85 (I drive one right now while Tesla tries to figure out what's wrong with the TACC on my car). If your insurance has the "replacement clause"... what do you replace it with? An S85 is definitely not the same car. And a P85D isn't either, plus it's MUCH more expensive...

 

[MsElectric]

Yes, opinion would be the key word here.

Yup, whatever any of us says here is their own opinion Maybe just for you and the other sliding enthusiasts, they could enable a special mode in the P85D to turn off the front motor so you can go sliding with the back wheels spinning...

 

[Mnlevin]

In the southern part of the US there is no real need for AWD. I agree with the OP and Todd. I own a P85 and the list on that car was $103k. Even with a price increase you could get the car to around $110k. But today if you want a P85D it is about $130k+. There should be something less priced. I guess the want to keep the assembly line simple.

 

[neroden]

I guess they want to keep the assembly line simple.

This is certainly true. Tesla has repeatedly changed options to simplify the assembly line. There weren't many paint colors to start with, and now there are fewer. Options keep getting folded into packages. Stuff has been shoved from configuration choices into the aftermarket store. (This includes even the dual chargers, where installation requires tearing the car apart and putting it back together -- and which are pretty much a mandatory option both in and near Canada.) I would say that they are doing anything they can to simplify the assembly line, even when it hurts a substantial segment of customers and doesn't seem to make much sense.

 

[Cyclone]

One could almost wonder if they needed to limit the variations not just for improving the production rate of Model S's, but gear up for Model X production. But then, that would mean trusting their Q3 2015 delivery date when they haven't even unveiled the production design of the MX.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

My sense is that, with the P85D, Tesla has pushed the value equation to the point where the pool of potential customers has started to shrink. According to today's Wall Street Journal, the delivery time for a P85D is down to 20 days. Either this means the assembly line is operating at breakneck speed or demand is slowing down. While it may appear that the P85D is only marginally more expensive than the P85+ was, Tesla systematically raised the price of the P85+ by charging for options that were previously included on performance models at no charge, such as 21-inch wheels, air suspension, and an upgraded interior. Charging for these items was likely done in anticipation of the P85D release, to make it appear to be a modest step up from a P85+. My fully loaded P85 cost $102K in 2013. If you subtract the $5K AWD premium from the P85D, that still leaves a ~$20K price increase over 18 months.

As I pointed out in my original post, this has created a substantial gap in Tesla's product line. A $110K RWD Performance model without staggered wheels but otherwise fully optioned would find a significantly larger market than the $125K P85D. If Tesla doesn't fill this gap, eventually another manufacturer will.

 

[Alysashley79]

One could almost wonder if they needed to limit the variations not just for improving the production rate of Model S's, but gear up for Model X production. But then, that would mean trusting their Q3 2015 delivery date when they haven't even unveiled the production design of the MX.

But then...why offer a RWD 85 and a RWD 60? I'd think if they were trying to simplify things they would only be D models available. They're using the same rear motor they used at the end of the year on the P85D as they used on the last few P85s. It seems like a $ game.

 

[joefee]

I agree with OP ... I have driven the +, PD and still prefer my P85!

 

[dirkhh]

My sense is that, with the P85D, Tesla has pushed the value equation to the point where the pool of potential customers has started to shrink. According to today's Wall Street Journal, the delivery time for a P85D is down to 20 days. Either this means the assembly line is operating at breakneck speed or demand is slowing down.

We've seen this at the end of many quarters. The most expensive car is available within three weeks, everything else? Next quarter. We had this in 2013 and Elon said they'd stop doing that. We had it last year and he said they had started to stop doing that. And surprise, surprise, we have it this quarter again. I'm quite certain that in about a week delivery estimates for the P85D in the US will jump to late May.

- - - Updated - - -

But then...why offer a RWD 85 and a RWD 60? I'd think if they were trying to simplify things they would only be D models available. They're using the same rear motor they used at the end of the year on the P85D as they used on the last few P85s. It seems like a $ game.

No - they need a cheap model (S60, no supercharging, no tech, no nothing, $63k after tax break). Call it an entry level drug. The S85 is the "easy" upsell from there. And oh, for only an extra 5 grand you get AWD. And the P85D is what sucks your wallet dry

 

[dennis]

My sense is that, with the P85D, Tesla has pushed the value equation to the point where the pool of potential customers has started to shrink. According to today's Wall Street Journal, the delivery time for a P85D is down to 20 days. Either this means the assembly line is operating at breakneck speed or demand is slowing down.

This is no different than last quarter. When I was in Fremont in late November to test drive an early P85D, there were still a couple hundred open build slots for P85Ds to be delivered in December - and this was before that had actually delivered any! Car manufacturers operating with the traditional dealer model come up with "factory incentives" to get dealers to take extra cars at the end of the quarter and thus maximize revenue and profit. Tesla does it by shifting the mix in the last month toward the highest margin vehicles. Just another form of yield management.

 

[richkae]

As I've said all along P85s might be preferable for enthusiasts that like to drive their cars sideways

It is still my opinion that the vast majority of Tesla customers will prefer the superior traction, performance, and safety that comes with AWD and any "missed opportunity" by Tesla not having a RWD P version is minimal...

I do not believe that AWD is magic and provides superior safety in all cases.

In the snow a 2WD car with snow tires is almost always better than an AWD car with all seasons and those who believe they do not need snow tires because they have AWD have put themselves at risk.
Even with the same tires it is sometimes easier for the greatly unskilled to put an AWD car in the ditch than a 2WD car.

Whether you have 2WD or AWD you actually have the exact same amount of traction.
Each tire can exert the same amount of force on the road.
In a RWD car, 2 wheels can push you forward, and 2 wheels can turn you.
In an AWD car, all the wheels can push you forward, and the front wheels can do both turning and pushing. But if the front wheels are using some of their grip to push you forward, they actually have less available to turn you.
An AWD car has superior ability to push you forward, but not to turn your car, or slow you down.

Most may prefer it, and most may be safer with it, but not all.

Someone please correct me if I am wrong...

 

[ToddRLockwood]

We've seen this at the end of many quarters. The most expensive car is available within three weeks, everything else? Next quarter...

Good point.

- - - Updated - - -

This is no different than last quarter. When I was in Fremont in late November to test drive an early P85D, there were still a couple hundred open build slots for P85Ds to be delivered in December - and this was before that had actually delivered any! Car manufacturers operating with the traditional dealer model come up with "factory incentives" to get dealers to take extra cars at the end of the quarter and thus maximize revenue and profit. Tesla does it by shifting the mix in the last month toward the highest margin vehicles. Just another form of yield management.

Good point again.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

In the UK at least a fully loaded P85D is pretty much the same price that a fully loaded P85+ was - slightly over £100k.

When the P85+ was introduced, it was substantially less expensive than it was just prior to the P85D announcement. This is because the P85+ originally included numerous options as standard equipment, just as the P85 did. By the time the P85+ made it into the UK market, that standard equipment may have already been phased out.

I don't have any problem with Tesla creating an all out flagship model, but I believe they did make a mistake by eliminating the RWD P85. If you read the comments on this thread posted by P85 owners, you'll notice that many of them would buy a used P85 if their current car got totaled, instead of moving up to a P85D.

 

[dirkhh]

Whether you have 2WD or AWD you actually have the exact same amount of traction.
Each tire can exert the same amount of force on the road.
In a RWD car, 2 wheels can push you forward, and 2 wheels can turn you.
In an AWD car, all the wheels can push you forward, and the front wheels can do both turning and pushing. But if the front wheels are using some of their grip to push you forward, they actually have less available to turn you.

Physics doesn't quite work that way.
Your statement about grip on the front wheels is not correct. In a zero friction environment you are toast with either setup. But if you have some friction available, then the ability to drive the front wheels does indeed increase your ability to steer.

 

[dennis]

I don't have any problem with Tesla creating an all out flagship model, but I believe they did make a mistake by eliminating the RWD P85. If you read the comments on this thread posted by P85 owners, you'll notice that many of them would buy a used P85 if their current car got totaled, instead of moving up to a P85D.

That's a good point, and reinforces your original point about Tesla missing out on a revenue opportunity. Let's hope they see that and fill the gap in the product line with a revenue booster.

Let's face it, even really good cars have an adoption curve that sees pent up demand at the beginning of the cycle and a gradual tapering as the model ages and the newness and wow factor wear off. The P85D/85D have provided a revenue boost to the Model S, but others will be needed as well to get to the Model 3 in 2017 or 2018. While much of that will come from the X in 2015/2016, I believe Tesla will need to bring a face-lifted Model S to the market in late 2016/early 2017 when the current design and look are 5 years old. While some will think that this is a distraction from the Model 3, I view it as necessary to keep Tesla revenue growing in the face of the inevitable slippage in the Model 3 schedule.

 

[Gizmotoy]

Physics doesn't quite work that way.
Your statement about grip on the front wheels is not correct. In a zero friction environment you are toast with either setup. But if you have some friction available, then the ability to drive the front wheels does indeed increase your ability to steer.

I'm not a physicist, but I am curious if you have any documentation on this? I only ask because it's directly contrary to my experience and also what they teach you in performance driving schools. The general idea is that at any given time a tire only has so much grip, and you can parse that grip out into braking/acceleration/steering. If you're already at the limit of grip and want to increase any one of those three, you'll need to decrease one or more of the others to maintain traction. Things like weight transfer factor in, but that affects all drive configurations. Things like corner exits rely on this theory heavily: as you decrease your steering input as you exit the corner you gradually increase acceleration to keep your tires at the limit.

The above is, I understood, why AWD cars almost universally understeer at the limit. The exception are advanced (and recent) AWD systems with active center differentials (or two motors, I suppose) and yaw sensors that allow the car to dial in oversteer up to a certain threshold to start rotating and combat this propensity. It's also why high-power FWD cars are at a substantial disadvantage compared to AWD and RWD in performance situations. If your statement were true, it would seem like FWD is actually the best drive configuration.

 

[dirkhh]

I'm not a physicist, but I am curious if you have any documentation on this? I only ask because it's directly contrary to my experience and also what they teach you in performance driving schools. The general idea is that at any given time a tire only has so much grip, and you can parse that grip out into braking/acceleration/steering. If you're already at the limit of grip and want to increase any one of those three, you'll need to decrease one or more of the others to maintain traction. Things like weight transfer factor in, but that affects all drive configurations. Things like corner exits rely on this theory heavily: as you decrease your steering input as you exit the corner you gradually increase acceleration to keep your tires at the limit.

The above is, I understood, why AWD cars almost universally understeer at the limit. The exception are advanced (and recent) AWD systems with active center differentials (or two motors, I suppose) and yaw sensors that allow the car to dial in oversteer up to a certain threshold to start rotating and combat this propensity. It's also why high-power FWD cars are at a substantial disadvantage compared to AWD and RWD in performance situations. If your statement were true, it would seem like FWD is actually the best drive configuration.

Oh boy. It's complicated. It's basically the difference between having traction and having lost traction (and therefore creating slip and a thin layer under the tire that acts like a liquid from a friction point of view).
So as long as you have traction, a front wheel drive (or the front wheels of an AWD) will create both thrust and steering (and better steering than unpowered wheels, btw). And that's why I said the simplistic statement was wrong.
But what you mention here is of course correct, once you get the wheels to slide (either by steering too hard or by accelerating too hard) you lose both, steering and thrust.
This is why a good traction control on an AWD is so critical - and if you have one engine and are using differentials to prevent front wheel slip, the car will most likely lose steering when you apply more and more thrust. But with a separate front motor that has a very responsive traction control, you can prevent the wheels from slipping and therefore maintain BOTH steering and thrust - within the boundaries of the friction that is available.

Edited to add:
One way to think about this is that the "grip" that provides steering are the longitudinal edges of your profile / tire. The grip for thrust is primarily the cross edges. So it is not true that you have one pool of grip for both axes. It's just true that once you slip and create the liquid-like situation, both types of edges lose friction.