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Recent MYP Delivery Estimates

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I got ya beat... I refreshed it about every 30min today and still no VIN. I honestly wouldnt mind seeing a 22 MY in October now that I am becoming comfortable with my patience and my borrowed 08 SL550 from a friend. They dont make em like the oldies.
Is October when the model year has switched historically? Thought I saw others saying it was Jan 1 for Tesla.
 
I got ya beat... I refreshed it about every 30min today and still no VIN. I honestly wouldnt mind seeing a 22 MY in October now that I am becoming comfortable with my patience and my borrowed 08 SL550 from a friend. They dont make em like the oldies.
Same. I almost refresh every hour hoping for a VIN so I can get my insurance coverage ASAP. Hopefully that will push my delivery date closer. I highly doubt it though. It's just been crickets.
 
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VIN was just assigned a few minutes ago. SC told me it would be today so glad to see they were correct.

OD: 8/19
VIN: 9/9 (267xxx)
EDD: 9/23/-9/25

MYP Blue, Black Interior, No FSD, No Tow

As I mentioned in a previous comment they think it'll arrive 9/19 and be ready for pickup 9/20-9/24.

Just got the text to schedule delivery. My first time being forced to do a home delivery, my original MY LR delivered last December was at the SC (~15 min away). Scheduled delivery for 9/23 which was the earliest date.
 
Is October when the model year has switched historically? Thought I saw others saying it was Jan 1 for Tesla.
From everything I've read, historically they start updated model year production in Q4, but they will not use the year in the name until Jan 1 rolls over. I want to say this is because Tesla doesn't use "model year" as a primary indication of feature set since minor feature upgrades are implemented throughout the year.
 
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I haven’t been around long on here but it sounds like this is Tesla’s pattern for delivering cars based on past EOQ pushes. The Bay Area will likely see tons of deliveries the last couple of weeks
My guess, they are issuing VINs from East to West which would make sense given the logistics/time to deliver to the east coast when they can hit Western orders within 1 or 2 days. Thats just me being optimistic that my 9/14 - 9/30 EDD doesnt get blown into October. My luck they will deliver while Im out of town from the 24th - 28th.
Tesla uses a quarterly production and sales model that I've read is very consistent. Over the course of the quarter, they will prioritize scheduling far away deliveries (which are likely further ranked by config cost) because those can be scheduled in the first half of the month for the second half of the month, making their way west. This makes sense and historically I believe the result was that everyone would basically get deliveries around the same time.

However, my speculation is that at a certain point in the final month of the quarter, they begin planning EOQ logistics to ensure that they can maximize deliveries are in the queue. These are west coast deliveries since they should be able to complete these much faster.

Now for the tinfoil hat....I think west coast purchases towards the end of the quarter are explicitly put at the bottom of the queue with an asterisk (any configs that get released can easily be assigned to a west coast buyer, hence enormous EDDs deep into the wait time). But when EOQ rolls around, the queue is inverted, putting any far away orders placed around the same time but not fulfilled into the following quarter and rewarding some late quarter west coast purchasers.

Unclear what sort of impact this year has had on this schedule, since Tesla is behind across the board on MYLR orders and now backlogged for MYP. I'm on the fence about people who switched from LR to P and almost immediately received VIN and scheduled delivery; it seems like Tesla has been trying to reward those who have been waiting a long time who decided to switch, but this could also be explained by prioritized fulfillment for far away regions. Looks like numerous people in PNW switched to MYP around late August/early September but are in the same VINless state, which would be consistent.
 
Sharing my delivery experience and expressing gratitude for everyone before who shared theirs because I would never have thought to look underneath the car or seats or check for a loose spoiler.

1. Spoiler peeling off
2. Missing fasteners under the rear end
3. Torn seat cover strap under driver seat (never seen that in these forums before)

Otherwise, everything was tight, no panel gaps or misaligned doors, frunk, or hatch. While I wish they would have found these things themselves, I'm very happy with the Carlsbad SC. Everyone was super friendly and helpful. Tesla mobile service is coming to my house on Thursday to repair all of those and install the roof rack, mud flaps, and homelink.

PPF and window tint next week.
 

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While the model year change is important for resale value and, less likely, potential significant updates I think the bigger deal is the possible $8000 tax credit the Y would receive. (IF the infrastructure bill passes and likely only for deliveries January 1st and beyond)
I just can't see the Big 3 "allowing" anything that helps Tesla.
 
Sharing my delivery experience and expressing gratitude for everyone before who shared theirs because I would never have thought to look underneath the car or seats or check for a loose spoiler.

1. Spoiler peeling off
2. Missing fasteners under the rear end
3. Torn seat cover strap under driver seat (never seen that in these forums before)

Otherwise, everything was tight, no panel gaps or misaligned doors, frunk, or hatch. While I wish they would have found these things themselves, I'm very happy with the Carlsbad SC. Everyone was super friendly and helpful. Tesla mobile service is coming to my house on Thursday to repair all of those and install the roof rack, mud flaps, and homelink.

PPF and window tint next week.
Thanks for sharing. Hoping everything goes well for me in Carlsbad when it's my turn. Out of curiosity, who are you using for PPF and tint?