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Recent MYP Delivery Estimates

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Always hard to tell what Tesla is doing behind the scenes, but I am not personally reading heavily into the significance of the recent radio silence for MYP production. There's such a huge backlog of LR orders and realistically they only have a single factory capable of producing domestically delivered cars. I'm not sure what the relative numbers look like, but it seems possible that the opportunity cost of producing MYPs over LR is too high; that they might stand to lose out on revenue if they prioritized P over LR, at least right now.

Though it would come at the cost of August/September buyers still waiting on a VIN, if logistics and order volume permits, they could simply plan to build MYP at the end of the month knowing they could feasibly fulfill Q3 leftover orders and early October orders but need more time to fulfill the mountain of LR orders going back a couple months. As an MYP owner, it does feel easy to forget there's X times as many LR's out there.

Seems unlikely that this is mounting to some bigger plan to pleasantly surprise everyone with 2022 MYPs and/or units from GigaTexas but I could be wrong. With the amount of attention, rumors, and leaks that Tesla gets, it feels almost impossible keep any major plans under wraps. It increasingly seems like some folks who are still waiting on VINs from August/early September orders were just unlucky and Tesla doesn't mind having those loose threads. Would be nice to see Tesla throw in something (free month of FSD perhaps?) to dull the pain but I wouldn't hold my breath.

But hey, if Tesla has scorned you to the point of abandoning the brand, you should still be able to flip it for or maybe even above MSRP if you're willing to put in a little effort. So at least there's that.
 
@Jbapckfan @Luka816
From the latest news I can find, I agree that there's basically no chance we see 4680's/air suspension this year. If any are delivered I would imagine these would be at the very end of the year. Because of the fanfare and attention on the 4680's and since air suspension would be such a significant upgrade, I doubt those end up being "surprise" updates and will be heavily reported on leading up to eventual deliveries, starting with leaks/rumors.

The information about using the pilot plant to produce 4680's feels like a red herring. Tesla has already stated that this will eventually be a long term battery factory so the fact that it's currently able to produce the new batteries, which Tesla has theoretically been capable of for some time, likely doesn't tell us much about when to expect vehicles that have them. I also agree that Tesla will not build MY two different ways and deliver to customers, which in my mind reinforces how unlikely we see 4680 powered MY/M3 this year; unless that plant has capacity to produce batteries for all of the MY orders of the upcoming batches (or at least where they draw the line for 2022 models), they won't produce some MY that have them and some that don't.

I can't comment on how things went ahead of the minor 2021 upgrades, but I can say that they all basically addressed very common complaints at that time. I can't think of a ton of things that people still complain about, but these come to mind that could be addressed in the 2022 model year plus anything that's already been mentioned:
  • Power Frunk - feels unlikely based on the design (manual for safety reasons), but seems like a commonly desired feature. A mobile technician actually recommended I get it done by a 3rd party, fwiw
  • Ventilated seats - I could go either way on likelihood. Feels like a big deal but also is somewhat glaring "flaw" of M3/MY
  • Wheels - there's a history of updating these with model year. Just not that big of a deal to most.
  • Mudflaps/PPF bra - some 2021 deliveries had these installed (area specific).
  • Projector Headlights for LR - this one is a gimme since Tesla has already stated this is eventually coming
  • Adaptive Headlights - unlikely imo, but the tech is found in other cars and they have working modules on display (in Europe)
  • Some other possible upgrades just because it would be easy to produce: slight changes to the steering wheel, slight changes to interior finish (dashboard look/material), center console, tail lights/turning lights

I'm currently listening to the Webcast for Q3 earnings and Tesla always has interesting QA at the end talking about delays, cars, etc. that can be useful. I suggest folks on here to check this stuff out:

 
I have an iPhone. I deleted the app and re installed it and now my delivery shows up.
 

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