Recent MYP Delivery Estimates

[Jbapckfan]

When speculating about the 4680 keep a few things in mind. The purported power increase is primarily related to the larger volume per cell and this is being done to reduce cost, drop weight, and speed manufacturing. It is very possible Tesla will reduce the battery pack size but manage an equal or slightly higher range. I am expecting maybe 320-340mi range on the new MYP, not 400. I also expect a range increase on the current MYP since the change from 77kw to 82kw pack size did not change the range, so there should be room for a software range or acceleration improvement. Also, it is new technology so who knows how smooth the first iteration will be. Going to be fun to see the changes and Tesla really cannot afford to hold back anymore when it comes to range and acceleration with the Mach E GT and other legitimate competitors. The end result will be a win for the consumer but supply chain constraints are slowing production and increasing prices unfortunately.

 

[Rugg3r]

When speculating about the 4680 keep a few things in mind. The purported power increase is primarily related to the larger volume per cell and this is being done to reduce cost, drop weight, and speed manufacturing. It is very possible Tesla will reduce the battery pack size but manage an equal or slightly higher range. I am expecting maybe 320-340mi range on the new MYP, not 400. I also expect a range increase on the current MYP since the change from 77kw to 82kw pack size did not change the range, so there should be room for a software range or acceleration improvement. Also, it is new technology so who knows how smooth the first iteration will be. Going to be fun to see the changes and Tesla really cannot afford to hold back anymore when it comes to range and acceleration with the Mach E GT and other legitimate competitors. The end result will be a win for the consumer but supply chain constraints are slowing production and increasing prices unfortunately.

I guess they'll have to be certain all production vehicles will have the new packs before update the website to reflect any newly increased range. Wonder if they'll start introducing 4680s soon but limit the range via software until every vehicle off the line has then, then increase the range of all stealth 4680 vehicles to coincide with listing a new max range on the website.

 

[Jbapckfan]

I guess they'll have to be certain all production vehicles will have the new packs before update the website to reflect any newly increased range. Wonder if they'll start introducing 4680s soon but limit the range via software until every vehicle off the line has then, then increase the range of all stealth 4680 vehicles to coincide with listing a new max range on the website.

They could do that. I think that as soon as Austin is ready with the 4680’s and casted fronts they’ll have every US Y come from Austin while they make changes to Fremont so that all Y’s produced are the same. The news will be all over Twitter as soon as Austin starts pumping ‘em out.

 

[Stook02ss]

When are the MYP expected to start receiving the 4680? I see some reporting saying early 2022 Texas will start manufacturing the "new" Y....I guess...how do we get more fidelity on that?

Nothing other than likely* starting next month and deliveries in early 2022... with no indication whether those will be LR or P... or both. My first hold ends on 2/27/22. If no new info is released by then I intend to let the hold expire and take delivery ASAP.

That said, if in early to mid-February it becomes known that a few cars are being delivered with 4680s or other changes, it'd be nice to have the option to wait another month...

 

[Stook02ss]

I guess they'll have to be certain all production vehicles will have the new packs before update the website to reflect any newly increased range. Wonder if they'll start introducing 4680s soon but limit the range via software until every vehicle off the line has then, then increase the range of all stealth 4680 vehicles to coincide with listing a new max range on the website.

While I generally agree with most of what you said, three things are left out.

When it comes to the Mach-E GT, it has a huge flaw in that it can only max accelerate for 5 seconds. That's absurd imo...

The 4680 cars aren't just about being longer range or faster - they'll likely be lighter and more rigid do to needing a less massive battery to get the same total output and improved rigidity stemming from the structural battery pack and single piece rear assembly. Those are some pretty significant improvements.

 

[Starway2001]

This is why I'm leasing our first Tesla. In three years the battery technology and manufacturing will have matured and, hopefully, the build>delivery process won't be as insane.

 

[pittsy]

Got my VIN this morning with a EDD of 12/6-12/10 in FL. VIN 319XXX

 

[Rugg3r]

Nothing other than likely* starting next month and deliveries in early 2022... with no indication whether those will be LR or P... or both. My first hold ends on 2/27/22. If no new info is released by then I intend to let the hold expire and take delivery ASAP.

That said, if in early to mid-February it becomes known that a few cars are being delivered with 4680s or other changes, it'd be nice to have the option to wait another month...

How did you go about placing a 2nd order and getting a hold that far out? My current no-vin hold ends 3 January.

 

[Piscado]

Come on folks. 4680 ain’t coming in in H1 for sure

 

[NoxGrimstad]

Woke up to a tightened window as well
EDD - December 03 - December 16

 

[NoxGrimstad]

Hey yall, I got this text this morning and wanted to double check what I need to do.

I am financing through my own bank, and I have a bank check from them - it just has you fill in the amount and the year/make/model/VIN. So clearly I can’t send them money through Plaid, but I’m also not doing their financing.

What do? I can call the bank and ask them what the best way to do it is, but I figure I’m not the first person to run into this so I wonder how others have resolved it.

 

[Clark_Kent]

View attachment 735743Hey yall, I got this text this morning and wanted to double check what I need to do.

I am financing through my own bank, and I have a bank check from them - it just has you fill in the amount and the year/make/model/VIN. So clearly I can’t send them money through Plaid, but I’m also not doing their financing.

What do? I can call the bank and ask them what the best way to do it is, but I figure I’m not the first person to run into this so I wonder how others have resolved it.

Can't you just follow the directions in the text? It sounds like the paragraph that starts with "If these funds..." matches your situation. If it doesn't, I suggest calling Tesla to inquire and not ask us. Things change rapidly at Tesla and the last thing you'd want is stale information from someone on a web forum.

 

[NoxGrimstad]

Can't you just follow the directions in the text? It sounds like the paragraph that starts with "If these funds..." matches your situation. If it doesn't, I suggest calling Tesla to inquire and not ask us. Things change rapidly at Tesla and the last thing you'd want is stale information from someone on a web forum.

My inference was that "if these funds" refers to "the funds you are paying them electronically through Plaid". But I will see what I can find out.

 

[Bisivni]

Got my VIN this morning with a EDD of 12/6-12/10 in FL. VIN 319XXX

Congratulations. Crazy I got a 319 VIN almost 10 days ago. According to tesla, car is still "preproduction." How'd they give a VIN that early prior to making the car!?! My rollercoaster ride continues!

 

[detwer]

View attachment 735743Hey yall, I got this text this morning and wanted to double check what I need to do.

I am financing through my own bank, and I have a bank check from them - it just has you fill in the amount and the year/make/model/VIN. So clearly I can’t send them money through Plaid, but I’m also not doing their financing.

What do? I can call the bank and ask them what the best way to do it is, but I figure I’m not the first person to run into this so I wonder how others have resolved it.

Curious, how long after your "trade in" (whether you had one or not) text did you get this, and how long after your vin did you get this?

 

[NoxGrimstad]

Curious, how long after your "trade in" (whether you had one or not) text did you get this, and how long after your vin did you get this?

No VIN yet and no "trade in text" either. EDD 21-30 Dec.

I called Tesla and they told me to go ahead and reply with the bank info. Clearly, my interpretation there was wrong

 

[detwer]

No VIN yet and no "trade in text" either. EDD 21-30 Dec.

Very curious.. i got the trade in text but not the one you got. EDD is sooner than yours.

It really is a shitshow, haha. Though I don't know what your build specs are.

 

[Clark_Kent]

Congratulations. Crazy I got a 319 VIN almost 10 days ago. According to tesla, car is still "preproduction." How'd they give a VIN that early prior to making the car!?! My rollercoaster ride continues!

Because the app or website likely are not updated in real time.

 

[NoxGrimstad]

Very curious.. i got the trade in text but not the one you got. EDD is sooner than yours.

It really is a shitshow, haha. Though I don't know what your build specs are.

Interesting. It seems it's a total toss-up! For what it's worth - MYP, white ext/black int, no tow, no FSD.

 

[detwer]

Interesting. It seems it's a total toss-up! For what it's worth - MYP, white ext/black int, no tow, no FSD.

Ahh, I'm MYP, MSM / black, TOW, NO FSD

And in DFW