Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[T3slafan2500]

nope bc Tesla does rolling improvements they don't owe anyone anything. Also going 4680 would likely require complete redesign of battery area not likely anytime soon.

Yeah the chemistry and pack design of the S/X are new according to Elon. So I doubt they'll redesign it and put it into production until 2023 at least IMO. Especially since when Elon was asked why they still use the 18650 cells he said they are cell constrained and it wouldn't make sense to abandon cells that both work and are already available at scale. IDK where would that 110gWh of cells go since the S/X are the only products that use that form factor.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Yeah the chemistry and pack design of the S/X are new according to Elon. So I doubt they'll redesign it and put it into production until 2023 at least IMO. Especially since when Elon was asked why they still use the 18650 cells he said they are cell constrained and it wouldn't make sense to abandon cells that both work and are already available at scale. IDK where would that 110gWh of cells go since the S/X are the only products that use that form factor.

Exactly! As I said before on this subject:

I agree with most points, but S and X are not on high priority for 4680s. Remember they have to ramp Y for a year, and then move over to CT, which alone will take up all of '22's (and a good amount of '23's) battery supply. After CT they have to launch Roadster and the $25k car, and then they could do a 4680 S and X. So I think at the earliest that we could see a 4680 Plaid is maybe mid to late '23 up to '26 or '27. Remember this is essentially a new generation of 18650s, so they have a looooong way to go in their life. Both Panasonic and Tesla need to get their investment back from this, so they will keep the 18650s around for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if eventual 18650s could get to 500+ miles of range alone (there's rumors of a 10% to 15% range increase via SW as they sit right now with no changes), before opening the gates to the 4680s. In fact, the amount of redesigning and retooling required to fit both a cast front and rear along with the structural pack may dictate a new generation of S and X when they do it.

Oh I agree with the small run thing! It's just they have iterated countless times that it will be Y and CT first, and everything after. There are only so many batteries, and the main limiting factor for EVs is not demand or price, but battery production. After everything is running, sure they could do a 4680 S and X, but I wouldn't bet on it being too soon. I used to have this same hypothesis, but after seeing the amount of changes and hard work put into the new S and X packs, I'm very sure they need their investments filled. This new pack isn't a nudge for the 18650s, it's a new breath of life entirely. The new packs are completely different, and a marvel in battery engineering themselves.

 

[EV_LIFE]

Low range is the biggest problem. 85% charge is 145 ish miles (233 km) - BUT... Since it's just a daily driver/grocery-getter I have never had range anxiety. The only problem came up when I wanted to drive to Laughlin, NV for work (from Chandler, AZ) - I could have easily made it to the Wickenburg Supercharger (#unlimitedsuperchargingforthewin) but ABRP (A Better Route Planner) said that I'd make it to the next supercharger with 10% charge... I DO NOT TRUST any prediction under 20% in this car. It has 140k miles (225k km) and tends to lose range at 7/8 projected.

As far as speed... HA! this thing is SUPER FUN! (Mind you, my previous car was a 2007 Prius with 360,000 miles ) I mean, It's not scaring passengers with whiplash or anything, but I gave my wife's grandfather a turn behind the wheel and he never stopped giggling the entire time! For context, he used to work on the production line at GM for 40 years... He kept punching it and giggling, trying to surprise me. It was amazing!

But it still feels like a new car. The white perf'd leather is PRISTINE. If I didn't know better, I would say it was a 2019. I LOVE it. I JUMP at the opportunity to go run errands because I want to spend more time driving it!

I would love to see some photos

 

[Niranga]

Agreed

I think unplanned delays in 4680 cells cancelled/delayed Tesla plans. Hence the cancellation of MS Plaid + clearly for Lucid competition.

 

[Niranga]

Didn't lucid deliver $170k vehicles? They're not going to kill Tesla by any stretch of the imagination. Tesla likely got more new orders on their website today than all of the Lucids that will be delivered this year.
That being said...my Aunt ordered an Air... And while I don't particularly like the styling, it's 100% a luxury car.

There is a reason why we all like Tesla. They produce and deliver a superior product than legacy auto makers. Don’t judge number of orders as the stick of success. You can use the same stick for legacy automakers whom still sells millions of cars more than Tesla. IMO Tesla has to beat or meet competition regardless of price. $170k is not going to deter someone already spends $150k. I know Elon has a plan already. We just don’t know it yet!

 

[VLTWGGN]

Looks like the MX range estimates changed to unusually precise numbers on the configurator. I wonder if the MX Plaid finally got EPA numbers which means deliveries soon???

 

[jbrowdy]

And no plaid versions, right?

I don’t think you could tell unless you saw the badge on the back

 

[zk19]

Is there any clarity on whether we’d be included in the new tax incentives, or if that’s even a possibility? Are we priced out because of the cost of the car? Income limits? I’m reading all kinds of different things so my guess is that nothing is actually determined yet. Maybe all just rumors. True?

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Is there any clarity on whether we’d be included in the new tax incentives, or if that’s even a possibility? Are we priced out because of the cost of the car? Income limits? I’m reading all kinds of different things so my guess is that nothing is actually determined yet. Maybe all just rumors. True?

The price caps are absolutely true.
Here is a great walkthrough:

 

[nyNYCny]

Is there any clarity on whether we’d be included in the new tax incentives, or if that’s even a possibility? Are we priced out because of the cost of the car? Income limits? I’m reading all kinds of different things so my guess is that nothing is actually determined yet. Maybe all just rumors. True?

If u own ur own business, I think we can still accelerate the expense (whatever percentage business usage we are claiming) — instead of amortizing the expense over multiple years — all in the year of purchase. And my CPA says that for now, that can either be this yr or next yr…

 

[Grassright]

Is there any clarity on whether we’d be included in the new tax incentives, or if that’s even a possibility? Are we priced out because of the cost of the car? Income limits? I’m reading all kinds of different things so my guess is that nothing is actually determined yet. Maybe all just rumors. True?

Forget about it...

 

[zk19]

The price caps are absolutely true.
Here is a great walkthrough:

Thanks. Good video. Yea I see the $69k SUV cap definitely eliminates us. Makes sense. Can’t complain. While I would’ve loved the cash back, nobody actually needs help if you’re buying a $120k car.

Also, if I’m understanding it correctly, that would mean Model Y’s delivered next year would qualify for $8k right? That makes it really interesting for people on the fence between an X and Y.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

Thanks. Good video. Yea I see the $69k SUV cap definitely eliminates us. Makes sense. Can’t complain. While I would’ve loved the cash back, nobody actually needs help if you’re buying a $120k car.

You're welcome. I'm much more irritated by the $4,500 or $2,500 penalty Tesla, Toyota, VW, Honda, etc... get handed because they don't have unions. Oh well, that's the way it is, but I think Toyota (of all car makers LOL) puts this quite well:

Toyota Posts New Ad Pushing Back Against 'Union' EV Tax Credit

There has been a lot of controversy surrounding Democrats' decision to favor unionized automakers over those that aren't organized, and Toyota is stepping up.

insideevs.com

 

[Empty tank]

Looks like the MX range estimates changed to unusually precise numbers on the configurator. I wonder if the MX Plaid finally got EPA numbers which means deliveries soon???

Yes, 333

 

[AFBruin]

Thanks. Good video. Yea I see the $69k SUV cap definitely eliminates us. Makes sense. Can’t complain. While I would’ve loved the cash back, nobody actually needs help if you’re buying a $120k car.

Also, if I’m understanding it correctly, that would mean Model Y’s delivered next year would qualify for $8k right? That makes it really interesting for people on the fence between an X and Y.

I don’t think the credit should be intended as help for those that can’t afford it. It should be an incentive for people to get an EV if they are deciding between an ICE and and EV.

Even at the more expensive range, you still want someone to pick a Model X over a Mercedes GLS. To go even further, I would say that I think the incentive should be even bigger for more expensive cars because at the luxury level, a couple thousand dollar incentive won’t convince a luxury ICE buyer to purchase an EV.

 

[zk19]

I don’t think the credit should be intended as help for those that can’t afford it. It should be an incentive for people to get an EV if they are deciding between an ICE and and EV.

Even at the more expensive range, you still want someone to pick a Model X over a Mercedes GLS. To go even further, I would say that I think the incentive should be even bigger for more expensive cars because at the luxury level, a couple thousand dollar incentive won’t convince a luxury ICE buyer to purchase an EV.

That’s true. All fair points.

 

[EndlessPlaid]

I don’t think the credit should be intended as help for those that can’t afford it. It should be an incentive for people to get an EV if they are deciding between an ICE and and EV.

Even at the more expensive range, you still want someone to pick a Model X over a Mercedes GLS. To go even further, I would say that I think the incentive should be even bigger for more expensive cars because at the luxury level, a couple thousand dollar incentive won’t convince a luxury ICE buyer to purchase an EV.

OMG THIS 1000% lol! You as a person who's worked hard for what you've got shouldn't be punished for buying a more expensive vehicle lol. I know 99% if not 100% people here have most likely worked their asses off for these cars, so why cut them off? It's supposed to be an incentive right? Oh well lol what are you gonna do?

 

[GauchoHB]

If u own ur own business, I think we can still accelerate the expense (whatever percentage business usage we are claiming) — instead of amortizing the expense over multiple years — all in the year of purchase. And my CPA says that for now, that can either be this yr or next yr…

You can depreciate up to 100% in year one depending on business usage for the X. S plaid is 4 pounds short :-(

 

[GauchoHB]

Didnt sunny just become a member the day before delivery? The conspiracy theorist in me says it’s a Tesla plant to get the word of mouth via social media buzz about deliveries. I’m not saying he didn’t get a car but I also don’t believe he won the random delivery lotto either.

Or more likely, he got excited because he knew he was taking delivery and started googling Tesla forums.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Yeah the chemistry and pack design of the S/X are new according to Elon. So I doubt they'll redesign it and put it into production until 2023 at least IMO. Especially since when Elon was asked why they still use the 18650 cells he said they are cell constrained and it wouldn't make sense to abandon cells that both work and are already available at scale. IDK where would that 110gWh of cells go since the S/X are the only products that use that form factor.

Powerwalls? Megapacks? Just saying, those can take a LOT….