Probably not the case if not CARB would have also spilled the beans on the 100. So the 100 is not as close to be released as the 75, and the 75 might just mean they switched over the new chemistry already in the 90's. I would love my 90 on order to come with 100, but I doubt it. Would be really nice if it came with the extra hardware for the next AP even if not enabled due to testing etc.
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Probably not the case if not CARB would have also spilled the beans on the 100. So the 100 is not as close to be released as the 75, and the 75 might just mean they switched over the new chemistry already in the 90's. I would love my 90 on order to come with 100, but I doubt it. Would be really nice if it came with the extra hardware for the next AP even if not enabled due to testing etc.
CHG-ON
Still in love after all these miles
It's like a lot of things battery related--computers, cars, lawn mowers, etc. 100kWH might be possible but you might break the batteries. IOW, any battery can be overcharged. Just watch the heat/current and keep the voltage up there and you probably can charge the battery 10% higher. Then run it until the polarity reverses on the cells--breaking them-- and it's possible. Somewhere in between is the sweet spot. Counting the number of cells in the car can give you some indication. If the number of cells in the 85 compared to the 90 are the same--and the chemistry is similar--another 5% should be easy. Just change the software dv/di points and allow a little more latitude. Let a little more discharge and a little more charge and you've got it. But if you do this regularly the battery will age prematurely. Maybe someone can tell us: How many cells are in the 85..how many in the 90? Then work backwards to determine the number of watt hours that are possible for each cell.
The commonly available Panasonic 18650 cells are peak 3.7volts and 3.4 AH. So if you have an application that is 85kW that would mean 6800 cells. I recall that the Model S has 7,104 cells. So from 6800 to 7104 is about 4 % or 88.4kWH from an 85 kWH pack. Not quite 90 kWH but close. Now consider that those Panasonic 18650 cells are commodity cells that YOU can buy from say Amazon. Tesla is going to get the most advanced chemistry and latest design. And the rating on the cells is an average parameter. If you're really good in the design phase you can probably stretch those numbers.
So it wouldn't surprise me to see a 100 kWH model S sometime in the next couple of years. Same cell pack numbers just different chemistry and software.
If Tesla gets down the road and the engineers look at the statistics and say..'..hey, you know what? We've got battery packs lasting 8 years no problem' then you're going to see the capacities coming up. At some point they will hit a limit and then they'll have to look at new technology but this buys them time. It's always like this in the industry. Sometimes it's what you can get away with. I'm not being critical of Tesla. That's the way you should test a product in the wild. IOW, the batteries are all the same recent mfg.
The commonly available Panasonic 18650 cells are peak 3.7volts and 3.4 AH. So if you have an application that is 85kW that would mean 6800 cells. I recall that the Model S has 7,104 cells. So from 6800 to 7104 is about 4 % or 88.4kWH from an 85 kWH pack. Not quite 90 kWH but close. Now consider that those Panasonic 18650 cells are commodity cells that YOU can buy from say Amazon. Tesla is going to get the most advanced chemistry and latest design. And the rating on the cells is an average parameter. If you're really good in the design phase you can probably stretch those numbers.
So it wouldn't surprise me to see a 100 kWH model S sometime in the next couple of years. Same cell pack numbers just different chemistry and software.
If Tesla gets down the road and the engineers look at the statistics and say..'..hey, you know what? We've got battery packs lasting 8 years no problem' then you're going to see the capacities coming up. At some point they will hit a limit and then they'll have to look at new technology but this buys them time. It's always like this in the industry. Sometimes it's what you can get away with. I'm not being critical of Tesla. That's the way you should test a product in the wild. IOW, the batteries are all the same recent mfg.
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I spoke with a tech for Tesla yesterday and he said most of the batteries have a little more capacity than what they say to account for degradation. He said something to the effect of, "Some people just don't believe degradation is real, but it is and if someone says, 'hey my batter is losing capacity' we could potentially unlock some extra juice."
DISCLAIMER: I am botching what he said exactly but he was talking fast and that was the general concept I got from what he was saying.
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
5 years from now, someone will accidentally spill some oatmeal into a lithium mix and up capacity 5X. You'll look a back at this post and cry, because you didn't patent it.
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
Tesla does something about every 6 months to the S to up slumping sales, in the fall they will release 100K and hopefully updated AP. Wont happen any sooner than fall.
wk0057 here on the forum has taken apart a few wrecked Teslas and learned a lot of the secrets. He found in recent firmware references to a 100 KWh version and the badge image for a P100DL. The 100 is coming and it will probably be within the next year.
Camera-Cruiser
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As much as I want to upgrade to the face-lifted model S, I think I'll hold out to the battery after the 100. That, or the Tesla, or any EV that can really get true 350 miles of range in real world situations, at real world speeds, most of the time, in mostly fair weather. I include rain in fair weather, but not 25 below and 50 mph wind gusts (Sorry my Canadian friends). I love my S, but to take long trips where you are charging 90 to every 120 miles or so is not the way I want to travel, especially if those stops are 20 to 40 minutes at a time. I just read a great post about a person who drove from Boston to Tampa Bay (5 lessons learned from a long-distance Tesla road trip) and they had about 9+ hours of charging. That is too much.
So, yes, bring out the 100, but we probably need a 150 battery to get us into this real world ballpark.
So, yes, bring out the 100, but we probably need a 150 battery to get us into this real world ballpark.
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
The first road trip I took to Vegas from Portland was fun for the first half of the first day then the charging got old real fast.
It only takes an extra 9+ hours if you make some extreme assumptions, like the assumption that in an ICE car you would never stop for food, restrooms, breaks, or sleep. I don't know about you, but if I'm doing a 20 hour road trip, I'd probably take at least 6 hours for food and breaks.
An easy solution to your problem would also be faster supercharging. Tesla has financed a lot of research in this field. Dr. Jeff Dahn for example, did publish some very interesting findings about fast charging and if they really shorten the batteries life cycle as much as thought and what can be done to make the charging process faster, by increasing overall charging speed, but also by making the charging process more uniform (less taper at the end).
Keeping in mind that Teslas new charging cable already has the potential of higher currents, it would be interesting if there would be an increase in charging speeds with the next gen cells. A faster charge, combined with a sufficient network, would eliminate some of the need for higher range. At least in the unexperienced view of the vast majority that take a 5-minute-to-400-miles refueling as standard with their daily dives.
I am on your camp, we don't need larger batteries which weigh more and take longer to charge, what we need is quicker charging and increase drive efficiency. If they can increase drive efficiency 10% thats the same as if the battery were a 100kwh
Camera-Cruiser
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Well obviously. I don't eat gas station microwave burritos and pee in a cup....anymore, but my bladder and need to take in sustenance while traversing the countryside can manage 4 to 6 hours when traveling without my better half and offspring, and even they are good for a solid 3 and half hours and up to 4 with some complaining. Sleep is important too, I would just prefer to pick where I want to sleep, not sleep near a Supercharger (and yes I know about destination charging and the other options).
Even the writer of the linked article concluded that flying or driving ICE would have been a better choice, and he is a self acknowledged long trip Tesla veteran.
My issue, and remember, I am an owner, is that I don't want to stop every 80 to 95 minutes for at least 20 minutes per stop on any trip. Sure, I could skip a charger, but then might risk running low on charge, having to slow down, and thus alter my driving experience. I know it is what it is right now, my point is that EVs will be far more successful once they have the true range of ICE vehicles, nothing more.
Yes! this would be great, but often the time to exit and reenter the highway system is as much of a time suck as charging. But, it is a huge step in the right direction.
I would actually love it if Tesla put 2 to 4 Blasters (that is what I would call them) at or near petrol stations and interstate rest areas. Even if at only Supercharger speeds - the big difference is that a Blaster would start an eight minute timer from the moment you plugged in and then turn off if there were any other Teslas waiting and would not restart until others had charged. The entire point is to be able to slip in and get a Blast charge that might help you make it home or to one more meeting, not to fully charge your car.
Still love my S85.
We need it all.
Larger batteries charge faster.
Improved chemistry decreases battery mass
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
Yup!
And corporate sponsored induction highway segments! Why bother getting off the road at all?
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