Regen causing unintended acceleration, according to new study?

[MP3Mike]

No one has convinced me (or will) why his conclusions in this article do not at least deserve careful examination, given what’s at stake. To flip this on its head, if you are so sure he is wrong, I think you’d look forward to having it be disproven.

I've already provided a link to someone that has been involved in SUA investigations in the past and has stated that he is willing to bet $1 million dollars that this guy is wrong.

He also seems to either get things very wrong, or has a poor attention to detail, for example he states: "Figure 4 shows the pre-crash accelerometer data. The longitudinal accelerometer data show that the vehicle had a rapid deceleration of -5 g’s from +1 g to -4 g one second before the crash. Since the Model 3’s regeneration is limited to -2 g’s (increased to -3 g’s by software update 2018.42 v9 on October 25, 2018), this higher -5 g deceleration could not have been caused by the vehicle’s regen system."

Those g numbers are all completely wrong. Tesla does not provide up to 3g's of regen deceleration. (All of those numbers appear to be off by a factory of 10.)

I'm not even sure he is correct in that Tesla is using the Bosch ESP-hev II unit. For example he says "All of these slip control functions are included in the ESP hev II modulator as software built into the modulator control unit by the brake system subcontractor, who in this case is Bosch. This software is proprietary to the modulator subcontractor and not accessible for modification by the vehicle manufacturer" But we know two things:

1. Tesla has said that with the Model 3 they stopped using a third-party vehicle stability controller and developed their own in-house. (Which is why they are able to have, and improve, track mode.)
2. That Tesla adjusted the ABS function very quickly after Consumer Reports released a report about poor braking performance on the Model 3.

So it seems unlikely that Tesla is using the Bosch ESP hev II which would completely invalidate his entire paper.

 

[1.21GW]

I just read through most of this paper. The problem is that he states many hypothesis without providing the evidence. He merely asks questions that are leading the reader to believe a statement is true.

I love this one: (question 7, page 6)
“If the driver never pressed the accelerator pedal, why does the EDR data show that the accelerator pedal was pressed?”

Page 38, he shows an image of the BMW i3 crashed into a shopping center wall and stated this happened as the person was pulling into the parking spot.

Also, has this guy never heard of ISO26262 Functional safety? Unintended acceleration is typically one of most stringent requirements.

 

[EnrgyNDpndnce]

Dr. Belt replied, “However, it is difficult to come up with any plausible theory of sudden acceleration,”

They hit the Go pedal thinking they were hitting the Brake pedal, and thus suddenly accelerated. There, that wasn’t difficult at all. I got my PhD from Ockham’s Razor University.

 

[Twiglett]

How can this person be called a pretty good scientist if his published paper isn’t verified by independent study or validated by testing.
Essentially it is one person speculating in an area he has been proven wrong in more often the being right.
Just because he is retired and volunteering time doesn’t preclude him from needing to prove his theory.

 

[SMAlset]

....Have they even bothered to check if any of these cars have a failed brake switch? It sound more like they are just assuming it does because the person said they pushed the brake pedal but the computer didn't register it.

To that point where there’s damage to other people’s property (sometime a building facade and inside building damage and loss of use incurred in addition to damage to the car), wouldn’t you think the car owner’s insurance company would have the car thoroughly checked out before paying out on a claim of property and vehicle damage and any medical? Especially if they could lay it off on Tesla or a parts provider? Also wouldn’t one of the govt agencies been super thorough over inspecting the car for all of the parts and systems? At this point I’m doubtful this is a valid explanation.

 

[SMAlset]

Dr. Belt replied, “However, it is difficult to come up with any plausible theory of sudden acceleration,”

They hit the Go pedal thinking they were hitting the Brake pedal, and thus suddenly accelerated. There, that wasn’t difficult at all. I got my PhD from Ockham’s Razor University.

And sometimes the simplest explanation is the right one.

 

[SMAlset]

Is @wk057 around?

 

[camalaio]

Just started reading. I find the stability control theory interesting with respect to yaw rate, if nothing else.

It think it's worth pointing out that Hold has some very strange, very rare behaviours. One that has been brought up on here is it accelerating in the opposite direction (both by itself briefly, or prolonged with accelerator pedal application). I've experienced this at least 3 times now. An additional one is it blipped forward by itself once. In my experience they were all brief, but it absolutely does some very wrong things in rare occasions. I'm back to Roll mode, where I've never had a problem.

 

[Twiglett]

This reminds me of Keef and his spamming of the NHTSA with fake reports about wheels falling off causing accidents by using pictures taken of junkyard Teslas with missing wheels

 

[run-the-joules]

: Yes, it is possible that my latest two papers are also wrong because the theory has not been tested at this time. However, it is difficult to come up with any plausible theory of sudden acceleration,

Here's a plausible theory: There are people who suck at very nearly every possible activity. There are people who are bad at driving. There are people who are bad at peeing. There are people who are bad at BREATHING. The simple answer is likely to be the correct one: People suck.

 

[run-the-joules]

You call being 100% wrong on your two previous theories being a pretty good scientist?

Works for antivaxxers and the dinguses who believe homeopathic stuff works.

 

[drtimhill]

Answer: Yes, it is possible that my latest two papers are also wrong because the theory has not been tested at this time. However, it is difficult to come up with any plausible theory of sudden acceleration, so when is one is able to come up with a theory that explains so many of the observations associated with sudden acceleration as this one does, one feels that the theory must be largely correct.

This is very faulty reasoning. "I can't think of any other explanation so this one must be right". This is a classic argument from ignorance, which has no scientific basis whatsoever. You can't "feel" that a theory is correct .. you can only subject it to tests to verify or refute it. I dont fault him for not doing those tests, but he should lay out clearly what possible tests there are, and why they verify (or refute) his claims.

 

[GZDongles]

It’s funny that vehicles have unintended acceleration Pulling into parking spaces. Typically just as people are trying to pull into a parking spot (and the same time they are supposed to hit the brake), the vehicle takes off! I mean, what are the chances!!??

Did you read the article? It seems like there could be something more than user error here here. When did the Tesla "community" get so tribal that everyone who has educated criticism of their cars is painted as a short seller?

Also, as others have pointed out this applies to any cars that use these particular Bosch brakes, not just Teslas.

 

[GZDongles]

Did you read the article? It seems like there could be something more than user error here here. When did the Tesla "community" get so tribal that everyone who has educated criticism of their cars is painted as a short seller?

Also, as others have pointed out this applies to any cars that use these particular Bosch brakes, not just Teslas.

I now see that you did read the article!

 

[George Marley]

When did the Tesla "community" get so tribal that everyone who has educated criticism of their cars is painted as a short seller?
.

Ever since the Tesla IPO

 

[Knightshade]

Did you read the article?

I did.

So have numerous folks who know this stuff better than both myself and the guy who wrote the theory.... all of which say he has no idea WTF he's talking about, and point out numerous errors in his reading of the data and his conclusions from them.

And it's not like he's not been wrong before about SUA...(I'm unsure he's ever not been wrong?)

So while I'm perfectly willing to read this (and future) ideas from him- that's the context one should probably be approaching it from... a guy who's been pretty consistently wrong on this stuff, and who appears to make fairly basic errors in his reading of his own data, and who doesn't appear able to support any of his own theories other than "I couldn't think of any OTHER reasons"

It seems like there could be something more than user error here here.

I mean- it COULD be aliens too. But so far there's no more evidence for that than this guys theory. Arguably less since aliens isn't based on misreads of data.

When did the Tesla "community" get so tribal that everyone who has educated criticism of their cars is painted as a short seller?

FWIW I don't think this guy is a short seller- just a bored old dude tried to make up theories without having a deep enough understanding of the car or the data. I'm sure he means quite well.

Some of the folks that'll go on to repost his conclusions out of context and without including the debunkings or counter-evidence though not so much.

 

[Three3]

Some of the folks that'll go on to repost his conclusions out of context and without including the debunkings or counter-evidence though not so much.

I’m still waiting for someone—anyone—to debunk his theory that brake light faults may interact with the Bosch brake module and EV Regen to cause unintended acceleration. I’d welcome that. But all I see are people saying “well he’s been wrong in the past so he must be wrong now too,” or, “anyone considering his argument must be a short seller,” neither of which are terribly compelling.

 

[EnrgyNDpndnce]

I’m still waiting for someone—anyone—to debunk his theory that brake light faults may interact with the Bosch brake module and EV Regen to cause unintended acceleration. I’d welcome that. But all I see are people saying “well he’s been wrong in the past so he must be wrong now too,” or, “anyone considering his argument must be a short seller,” neither of which are terribly compelling.

I’m still waiting on someone to provide any data or compelling evidence to support his theory, other than “well it seems like this makes sense so it could be right.”

 

[smartypnz]

Brakes??? We have BRAKES ?????

 

[Gasaraki]

Interesting read. If you're afraid, it doesn't hurt to turn the regen setting to low until everything is sorted out.