Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

[mkaresh]

For the past ten years I've been conducting a car reliability survey designed to provide up-to-date, objective stats. The survey is quarterly, for frequent updates. It asks that all repairs be reported, but excludes any problems that first appeared before someone joined, to minimize bias. We also don't count problems fixed entirely with software.

I don't have a bias for or against any car. My top priority is providing the best possible reliability information, whatever the stats might be.

We've been providing stats for the Model S for a while now, partly due to help from members of this forum. Though the Tesla's repair frequencies are still high, they've improved considerably from earlier.

I'd like to do the same for the Model X, now that a significant number have been delivered. Those who are interested in helping can sign up here:

www.truedelta.com/join

 

[mkaresh]

I just discovered that I'd entered 2017 as the first model year for the Model X, so anyone who tried to enroll a 2016 would not have been able to. This has now been fixed.

I've also added Model X pricing, features, and specs to our database, so the Model X can be configured and thoroughly compared to other cars in our pricing section. It's not easy getting a full features list for the car. If anyone notices a feature I've missed, please let me know.

I'll add the Model X to the quarterly survey once enough owners sign up. Since the survey is quarterly, it will note changes (for better or worse, better in the case of the Model S) far sooner than annual surveys can.

 

[Drivin]

For the past ten years I've been conducting a car reliability survey designed to provide up-to-date, objective stats. The survey is quarterly, for frequent updates. It asks that all repairs be reported, but excludes any problems that first appeared before someone joined, to minimize bias. We also don't count problems fixed entirely with software.

I don't have a bias for or against any car. My top priority is providing the best possible reliability information, whatever the stats might be.

We've been providing stats for the Model S for a while now, partly due to help from members of this forum. Though the Tesla's repair frequencies are still high, they've improved considerably from earlier.

I'd like to do the same for the Model X, now that a significant number have been delivered. Those who are interested in helping can sign up here:

www.truedelta.com/join

Are you selling this information to other people?
Are you affiliated with tesla or another car related org?

 

[mkaresh]

We're affiliated with no car manufacturers. We're an independent site. My wife and I do all of the work to develop and operate it.

We sell the data to no one unless you count paid individual subscribers to the site. Over 99 percent of our members are non-paid, as we offer a choice between buying a subscription and helping to provide the site's information.

We conduct the survey for the benefit of members and car buyers in general.

 

[Blastphemy]

Those of us who owned other brands of cars over the years are well acquainted with Michael Karesh. The data he collects can be invaluable when trying to track down how many owners have had a problem you discover in your own car. And it also helps to identify those vehicles that have better track records than others, so you can make an informed choice. His entire operation is above board and in service to everyone who owns (or wants to buy) a car.

 

[Darryl]

Typically on surveys such as this those who have problems report those who don't have issues don't register. Therefore the information gets skewed and then is picked up my the media. The media loves to report issues and could care less if the information is valid.

 

[Blastphemy]

Everyone who participates in his research gets regular reminders to report a quarter with no repairs, regular maintenance, or service repairs. So it's fairly even-handed. He just needs a large enough sample to make statistical conclusions.

 

[mkaresh]

Typically on surveys such as this those who have problems report those who don't have issues don't register. Therefore the information gets skewed and then is picked up my the media. The media loves to report issues and could care less if the information is valid.

You're right about most such surveys.

But there is no other car reliability survey like this one. It's ongoing, not a one-time thing. This way we can and do exclude problems that first appeared before members joined.

For some models we have dozens of "no repair" responses and no repair reports. Here's one example, the 2016 Outback (and Legacy), with 59 responses:

Subaru Outback Reliability

Some Model X owners now signed up. A good start, but we'll need more to provide stats. And, given the system described above, it takes a few months once enough people are signed up to start providing stats.

 

[mkaresh]

Eight Model X's signed up so far. Not enough, but a good start. At this rate we'll likely have initial stats in November, but possibly in August. The more owners participate, the more precise these will be.

www.truedelta.com/join

 

[dhanson865]

Typically on surveys such as this those who have problems report those who don't have issues don't register. Therefore the information gets skewed and then is picked up my the media. The media loves to report issues and could care less if the information is valid.

as an example I've been putting data for the 2005 Prius and 2012 Leaf in truedelta since I got each. In the case of the Prius that has been quite a few years worth of no repairs. For the case of the Leaf it's only been one year.

I tend to buy used cars so any car I put into truedelta is a 2nd or 3rd owner car.

Other people buy new cars and put their data in truedelta.

It takes all kinds to get accurate data.

 

[mkaresh]

Thanks for putting a good word in, dhanson!

I just posted our latest stats for the Model S in that forum. As mentioned in that post, my own father recently bought a post-update Model S, and has been loving it.

We should have an initial stat for the Model X with the next update, which we'll release around the end of November. The more participants we have, the more precise this stat will be, so I hope more Model X owners will continue to join.

www.truedelta.com/join

 

[mkaresh]

We will have an initial stat late next month, but the sample size would be small. Put another way, additional participants would be very helpful.

 

[mkaresh]

Sorry, I thought I'd already posted this. We have an initial stat for the Model X, based on owner experiences through September 30, 2016. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year (lower is better):

2016 Model X: 154, very high, small sample size

With additional participants, we could provide more precise stats in future updates. So I hope more owners sign up.

For the repairs behind these stats, reliability information on other models, and to sign up to help improve this information:

Tesla Model X reliability ratings and comparisons

 

[mkaresh]

Sorry that I haven't updated these recently. The Model X has been improving. Our latest stats cover the year ending December 31, 2017. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars the model X improved from about 150 during 2016 to 81 during 2017. Still high, but not super-high.

Additional participants always helpful. We especially need more owners with the 2017 and 2018. To help:

www.truedelta.com/join

 

[mkaresh]

We conducted a special survey that included the Teslas in January, covering owner experiences through the end of 2018.

The 2016 Model X remained unreliable, if much less so than early on in its run, with a score of 77. We do not have enough owners signed up for more recent model years.

In general it is no longer free to join the site. But since we might continue to survey Teslas, I'm thinking of letting Tesla owners join for free. If you're interested in this, PM me here or contact me through the contact form on the site, www.truedelta.com.