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Reminding myself how Tesla is so far ahead that it is seriously undervalued

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,451
28,023
Today I went to a Volvo dealership to look at an XC 40 electric, then passed by a Porsche dealer to look at the Taycan. They obviously are not comparable to each other but I have been thinking about a non Tesla EV.
What I learned is that regardless of some distinct merits of these cars, there is zero chance I’ll end out buying a non-Tesla, but my reasons are subtly different than I expected.

First, neither has anything resembling an integrated OS. Thus the buyer must have regular dealer maintenance and servicing. Brakes, and much else are not included in OTA updates. The Model 3, by contrast had a major brake upgrade included in a routine firmware update, not to mention cooling, heating and all the rest.

Sure we all know that. I did not viscerally understand it until I actually looked at required service.

Next we all know every other brand has dealers. I had not seen a dealer since 2016. Somehow I forgot how irritating it is to talk with a salesperson who knows nothing at all about the product, and nothing about the competition.

How do OTA updates work? “Oh you don’t have to do it yourself like Tesla. Just drop off your Taycan and we’ll do it here.” “Volvo has excellent safety, not crashing all the time like Tesla”. And so on…

Sone irritants we have with Tesla. We do not have the horrible dealers.

Notable new information: “We have nationwide charging with Electrify America, our own network”

with these two routine examples I wager there is not likely to be serious Tesla competition anytime soon. Many people will become EV buyers through all those competitors, many of whom will migrate to Tesla once they learn more.

some Tesla buyers will also buy these competitors. They’ll certainly advocate for much better solutions.
Daily life with weird charging networks, dealer servicing and multi-step driver assistance will be irritating.

suddenly I reach the idea that the best sales expansion prospects for Tesla is every one with a non-Tesla EV.
Inam saying nothing new, but today I just learned how valuable direct sales and total concentration of EV can be.
As for production cost, the competitors are still building ice-style vehicles.

All that said, the Taycan is 100% Porsche. As a firmer multi-Porsche owner that is a Good Thing. The XC 40 electric is clearly Volvo and Volvo lovers will instantly be at home.

That will not help them reduce cheaper or better cars, it just increases the costs because they have not really built them as ground up BEV.

So, next week I’ll add to my Tesla position.
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,311
12,951
QLD Australia
Battery Day and castings are underestimated.
In terms of a path to producing around 20 Million vehicles by 2030, I don't think batteries or castings will be an issue.
They still need to build new factories at the rate of Austin and Berlin and perhaps have even more factory construction sites in parallel.
Take out Batteries, Castings and Cybertruck style bodybuilding, the residual skill set is in common with ICE vehicle manufacturing so as ICE plants close or downsize, Tesla has the opportunity to tap into some useful engineering talent.

I can't see a competitor managing the combination of in house cell production and casting any time in the next 5 years, but perhaps we will see that from a Chinese competitor.

I see the Chinese and VW as the main competition for volume EV sales and Tesla has a significant brand advantage over the Chinese.

So by 2030 annual production of around 20 Million vehicles per year, 3 TWh of annual cell production and working Robo-taxis are all possible, and IMO likely.
Aside form the quality of the vehicle experience, I can't see legacy auto scaling vehicle production as fast as Tesla and making good enough margins to keep funding expansion.

IMO it looks likely Tesla can expand production rapidly, and make a good enough margins to keep funding rapid expansion.
Battery Day and Castings are at the heart of that, especially over the next 5 years, there is a good chance the race is run and won, in that time period.

Tesla producing 5-7 Million vehicles annually, within 5-6 years seems achievable. Demand will not be a problem.

As improbable as this rate of rapid expansion seems, I would not bet against it.
 

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,232
10,428
Sweden
Like Tesla went from Roadster 1.0 to Model Y, so will Tesla go to scale mass production of their vehicles. Once you understand why Tesla could go from Roadster to Model Y you will understand why Tesla will learn to scale better. People who failed to understand the improvement of Tesla from Roadster to Model Y will fail to understand Tesla from today to the future...
 

mickificki

Member
Mar 25, 2016
745
10,156
Long Beach, CA
Every time I get down about the stock price or have doubts about holding lately, I think about this:

6B9CA452-458E-4591-822E-348C284F920A.jpeg
 
May 13, 2019
521
1,811
Raleigh, NC
First, neither has anything resembling an integrated OS...

Next we all know every other brand has dealers. I had not seen a dealer since 2016. Somehow I forgot how irritating it is to talk with a salesperson who knows nothing at all about the product, and nothing about the competition.

Those are 2 big things for me as well.

Thinking back to my past experiences with car dealerships it was just a nightmare. 1 was packed with people waiting to talk to a salesman (wtf?) , salesperson who knows nothing about the product or technology in the car (a mid 2000's VW "that has so much technology it will blow your mind", lol), or all the little things they throw in at the end to make more money (theft protection stickers, wheel locks, seat protection, etc). 1 time we went in knowing exactly what car we wanted to buy and it still took like 4 hours ("I want that one, where do I sign")

Integrated OS is amazing. The fact that the entire car can be changed via OTA is just incredible. Also the UI completely changing and getting more modern. I know there are some diehard v8/v9 fans out there but for the car to get a completely new look and feel is exactly what I am looking for every few years. I've never known of a car's GUI to change so much just with an update, its like going from Windows XP to Vista to 7 to 10 vs other cars that go from Windows XP to Windows XP SP1.

Not to mention Battery tech, heatpump, Gigacasting, TeslaVision, Charging network, on and on and on.....
 

30seconds

Active Member
Feb 28, 2013
2,200
5,365
SF
Battery Day and castings are underestimated.
In terms of a path to producing around 20 Million vehicles by 2030, I don't think batteries or castings will be an issue.
They still need to build new factories at the rate of Austin and Berlin and perhaps have even more factory construction sites in parallel.
Take out Batteries, Castings and Cybertruck style bodybuilding, the residual skill set is in common with ICE vehicle manufacturing so as ICE plants close or downsize, Tesla has the opportunity to tap into some useful engineering talent.

I can't see a competitor managing the combination of in house cell production and casting any time in the next 5 years, but perhaps we will see that from a Chinese competitor.

I see the Chinese and VW as the main competition for volume EV sales and Tesla has a significant brand advantage over the Chinese.

So by 2030 annual production of around 20 Million vehicles per year, 3 TWh of annual cell production and working Robo-taxis are all possible, and IMO likely.
Aside form the quality of the vehicle experience, I can't see legacy auto scaling vehicle production as fast as Tesla and making good enough margins to keep funding expansion.

IMO it looks likely Tesla can expand production rapidly, and make a good enough margins to keep funding rapid expansion.
Battery Day and Castings are at the heart of that, especially over the next 5 years, there is a good chance the race is run and won, in that time period.

Tesla producing 5-7 Million vehicles annually, within 5-6 years seems achievable. Demand will not be a problem.

As improbable as this rate of rapid expansion seems, I would not bet against it.
going to be really interesting to see how production capacity of the Y increases at Fremont with the front and rear castings. Will be something of a read through for capacity of Texas and Berlin. I'm thinking that the stated capacity of these factories will be 2x the initial guidance over the next year or two
 
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