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Blog Report: Tesla Has Refunded 23% of Model 3 Deposits

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Nearly a quarter of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. have been refunded, according to a report from a company that analyses anonymized credit and debit card purchases.

About 450,000 people gave a $1,000 deposit to reserve a place in line for Tesla’s electric car for the masses. However, Second Measure says 23 percent of those people have asked for their money back.

A Tesla spokesperson told Recode that Second Measure’s data does not match its own, but did not offer more specifics. Second Measure says its numbers matched when Tesla CEO Elon Musk disclosed reservation figures last August that suggested 63,000 reservations had been canceled.

“Our analysis aligns with Tesla’s reported figures, also finding that 12 percent of deposits had been refunded at that time,” the report says.

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The Model 3 has experienced serious production woes that could push out delivery of some reservations for years. It’s understandable that some consumers either can’t or are not willing to wait that long for a new vehicle. Still, there’s no doubt that Tesla will continue to sell Model 3s as fast as they can make them.

The company said it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s last quarter, but expects to notch a significant milestone in production this month.

“Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June,” Musk said in a letter to employees in April. “Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.”

Model 3 deposits are fully refundable up until the customer configures a car by selecting features and paying an additional fee of $2,500. After configuration, vehicles are typically delivered in just a few weeks.

Update: It’s worth noting that canceled reservations for the Model 3 may have been converted to orders for a Model S or Model X.

 
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This number doesn't say much, it probably became more popular in America and Canada and maybe a bit less in Europe. This since Tesla is planning to mass produce it in Canada and America this quarter because of some tax rule and in Europe it will only start in 2019 if I understood it correct.
So, 23% might be refunded, but at the same time a milion new ones could be added, the amount of new reservations is still unknown.
 
Not surprising, but also not a particularly meaningful number in my opinion. Some of those are up-sells, but there's probably a significant chunk that thought they were going to be able to buy a $27,500 Tesla and it's pretty obvious at this point that few if any SRs will be sold before the credit starts to phase out. I'd also bet a decent chunk were people hoping to flip the car at a profit and the window for that is closing. It'll probably only be another year before you start to see used Model 3s hitting the market for reasonable prices as people opt for newer features.

What really matters for Tesla is that they reach the production volume they need to be profitable and then have enough demand to sustain that profitability. I don't think reservations/cancellations are really good indicators of long term demand, but they have more than enough to either hit or miss their profitability goals.
 
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23% is a very good number in my opinion.

Also, I'm not sure how accurate Second Measure is due to anonymized data (and their respective customer behaviors). I've used it for market data and the numbers ran contrary to other sources.
 
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Reading a glass as 23% empty? Why not read it as 77% full + upselling to Model S & X?

The other thing that's missing are the numbers in absolute accumulated terms. If the total of deposits kept + 3's delivered is constantly increasing, why worry?

maybe but I don't think we've seen a bump in Model S/X sales to support that idea. In fact Model S sales are down about 10% vs last year.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
 
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