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May 19, 2017
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Nearly a quarter of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. have been refunded, according to a report from a company that analyses anonymized credit and debit card purchases. About 450,000 people gave a $1,000 deposit to reserve a place in line for Tesla’s electric car for the masses. However, Second Measure says 23 percent...
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Rowan256

Active Member
Sep 5, 2017
1,026
514
Amsterdam
This number doesn't say much, it probably became more popular in America and Canada and maybe a bit less in Europe. This since Tesla is planning to mass produce it in Canada and America this quarter because of some tax rule and in Europe it will only start in 2019 if I understood it correct.
So, 23% might be refunded, but at the same time a milion new ones could be added, the amount of new reservations is still unknown.
 

TimK

Member
Apr 18, 2018
42
36
Woking, UK
Same. I couldn't wait, so I took back my reservation for the Model 3 and picked up a Model S in September of 2016. Been loving it ever since.
When the UK got dropped back to September 2019 (as told by my Service Centre) earliest, the waiting game lost its charm.
 

Soff

Member
Apr 20, 2016
9
4
Santa Barbara, CA
That looks exactly like my car in the photo on delivery day! Famous now :)
 

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commasign

TeslaAdviceBlog.com
Aug 31, 2013
3,202
4,178
Davis, CA
This is just FUD. When Tesla starts building the standard battery Model 3 at the end of this year or early next year, the flood gates will open. Reservations won't matter anymore.
 
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Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
Unclear why refunds are growing as of late, when the exponential capacity growth is obvious and Tesla is about to start manufacturing at a full throttle, which means getting to everybody's reservation asap, no more delays.
 

Krazaak

Member
Jul 30, 2017
909
1,004
Charlotte, NC
Not surprising, but also not a particularly meaningful number in my opinion. Some of those are up-sells, but there's probably a significant chunk that thought they were going to be able to buy a $27,500 Tesla and it's pretty obvious at this point that few if any SRs will be sold before the credit starts to phase out. I'd also bet a decent chunk were people hoping to flip the car at a profit and the window for that is closing. It'll probably only be another year before you start to see used Model 3s hitting the market for reasonable prices as people opt for newer features.

What really matters for Tesla is that they reach the production volume they need to be profitable and then have enough demand to sustain that profitability. I don't think reservations/cancellations are really good indicators of long term demand, but they have more than enough to either hit or miss their profitability goals.
 
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Marsnaut

Member
Apr 7, 2016
311
276
NYC
23% is a very good number in my opinion.

Also, I'm not sure how accurate Second Measure is due to anonymized data (and their respective customer behaviors). I've used it for market data and the numbers ran contrary to other sources.
 
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twonius

Member
Feb 28, 2016
464
380
San Diego CA
Reading a glass as 23% empty? Why not read it as 77% full + upselling to Model S & X?

The other thing that's missing are the numbers in absolute accumulated terms. If the total of deposits kept + 3's delivered is constantly increasing, why worry?

maybe but I don't think we've seen a bump in Model S/X sales to support that idea. In fact Model S sales are down about 10% vs last year.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
 
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