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Blog Report: Tesla Has Refunded 23% of Model 3 Deposits

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by TMC Staff, Jun 4, 2018.

  1. TMC Staff

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    Nearly a quarter of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. have been refunded, according to a report from a company that analyses anonymized credit and debit card purchases. About 450,000 people gave a $1,000 deposit to reserve a place in line for Tesla’s electric car for the masses. However, Second Measure says 23 percent...
    READ FULL ARTICLE
     
  2. TimK

    TimK Member

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    What's not showing is how many people updated to the Model S/X. I got my reservation refunded as I bought a Model S - arrives on the 12th June :D
     
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  3. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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  4. dauger

    dauger Member

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    Reading a glass as 23% empty? Why not read it as 77% full + upselling to Model S & X?

    The other thing that's missing are the numbers in absolute accumulated terms. If the total of deposits kept + 3's delivered is constantly increasing, why worry?
     
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  5. Peaviner

    Peaviner Member

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    Same. I couldn't wait, so I took back my reservation for the Model 3 and picked up a Model S in September of 2016. Been loving it ever since.
     
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  6. Rowan256

    Rowan256 Member

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    This number doesn't say much, it probably became more popular in America and Canada and maybe a bit less in Europe. This since Tesla is planning to mass produce it in Canada and America this quarter because of some tax rule and in Europe it will only start in 2019 if I understood it correct.
    So, 23% might be refunded, but at the same time a milion new ones could be added, the amount of new reservations is still unknown.
     
  7. Darscot

    Darscot Member

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    Elon was right, when he said no matter what the number is it would be seen as negative, which is exactly why they don't release the data.
     
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  8. TimK

    TimK Member

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    When the UK got dropped back to September 2019 (as told by my Service Centre) earliest, the waiting game lost its charm.
     
  9. SSonnentag

    SSonnentag Supporting Member

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    I got my deposit refunded/transferred to my S as well.
     
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  10. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    Check out 10Q everyone should read the textual parts - use search, such as Ctrl-F to find key words such as deposits
    Tesla - Quarterly Report
    Customrer deposits are nearly $1 billion dollars - not all Model 3..
     
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  11. Soff

    Soff New Member

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    That looks exactly like my car in the photo on delivery day! Famous now :)
     

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  12. XjteX

    XjteX Member

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    I put a deposit down on a 3. Then I went to the showroom and sat in an X. I'm a pretty tall guy. The extra money for a roomier car, and not having to wait in line for 2 years.... I decided to make it work.
     
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  13. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Yeah I had a 3 reservation, but then decided to go for an updated S instead.
     
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  14. commasign

    commasign Tesla Superfan

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    This is just FUD. When Tesla starts building the standard battery Model 3 at the end of this year or early next year, the flood gates will open. Reservations won't matter anymore.
     
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  15. DR61

    DR61 Member

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    I had never driven a Tesla, so I went to a store and did a test drive on an S P100D. I was very tempted to get an S and switch my $1000 reservation fee. Ultimately decided it was too large for my taste.
     
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  16. Moderatefan

    Moderatefan Member

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    Unclear why refunds are growing as of late, when the exponential capacity growth is obvious and Tesla is about to start manufacturing at a full throttle, which means getting to everybody's reservation asap, no more delays.
     
  17. Krazaak

    Krazaak Member

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    Not surprising, but also not a particularly meaningful number in my opinion. Some of those are up-sells, but there's probably a significant chunk that thought they were going to be able to buy a $27,500 Tesla and it's pretty obvious at this point that few if any SRs will be sold before the credit starts to phase out. I'd also bet a decent chunk were people hoping to flip the car at a profit and the window for that is closing. It'll probably only be another year before you start to see used Model 3s hitting the market for reasonable prices as people opt for newer features.

    What really matters for Tesla is that they reach the production volume they need to be profitable and then have enough demand to sustain that profitability. I don't think reservations/cancellations are really good indicators of long term demand, but they have more than enough to either hit or miss their profitability goals.
     
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  18. Marsnaut

    Marsnaut Member

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    23% is a very good number in my opinion.

    Also, I'm not sure how accurate Second Measure is due to anonymized data (and their respective customer behaviors). I've used it for market data and the numbers ran contrary to other sources.
     
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  19. twonius

    twonius Member

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    maybe but I don't think we've seen a bump in Model S/X sales to support that idea. In fact Model S sales are down about 10% vs last year.

    Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
     
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  20. Kanting

    Kanting Member

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    Some downgraded too. :(
     

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