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Blog Report: Tesla Has Refunded 23% of Model 3 Deposits

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Nearly a quarter of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. have been refunded, according to a report from a company that analyses anonymized credit and debit card purchases.

About 450,000 people gave a $1,000 deposit to reserve a place in line for Tesla’s electric car for the masses. However, Second Measure says 23 percent of those people have asked for their money back.

A Tesla spokesperson told Recode that Second Measure’s data does not match its own, but did not offer more specifics. Second Measure says its numbers matched when Tesla CEO Elon Musk disclosed reservation figures last August that suggested 63,000 reservations had been canceled.

“Our analysis aligns with Tesla’s reported figures, also finding that 12 percent of deposits had been refunded at that time,” the report says.

tesla-chart2b-v3.png


The Model 3 has experienced serious production woes that could push out delivery of some reservations for years. It’s understandable that some consumers either can’t or are not willing to wait that long for a new vehicle. Still, there’s no doubt that Tesla will continue to sell Model 3s as fast as they can make them.

The company said it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s last quarter, but expects to notch a significant milestone in production this month.

“Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June,” Musk said in a letter to employees in April. “Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.”

Model 3 deposits are fully refundable up until the customer configures a car by selecting features and paying an additional fee of $2,500. After configuration, vehicles are typically delivered in just a few weeks.

Update: It’s worth noting that canceled reservations for the Model 3 may have been converted to orders for a Model S or Model X.

 
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If the numbers are true, it is just outstanding for Tesla
The more interesting stat though would be cancellation rate when the order window opens. Even so, now that people have pretty accurate pricing information they probably are either cancelling now or are good for a purchase excluding changes in financial means and buyer's remorse.
More will drop out when they are sure they will not get the pull tax credit, then again for the partial. Heck I might even drop out and buy a used S if I can't get the tax credit.
 
Back in the day, ~ 60k people signed an internet petition of interest in the Chevy Volt encouraging GM to bring the car to market. Based in part on that interest, GM reported plans to produce up to 60k cars in the first year and voiced optimism that sales would double by the second year of production.

Reality was quite a bit different. About 5% of the poll participants bought the car, and I don't think annual sales have ever gone over 30k despite steep discounts by GM. The Volt is now on the chopping block; GM is giving out strong hints that a 3rd generation will not be produced.

By comparison, Tesla is hitting 800.
 
Back in the day, ~ 60k people signed an internet petition of interest in the Chevy Volt encouraging GM to bring the car to market. Based in part on that interest, GM reported plans to produce up to 60k cars in the first year and voiced optimism that sales would double by the second year of production.

Reality was quite a bit different. About 5% of the poll participants bought the car, and I don't think annual sales have ever gone over 30k despite steep discounts by GM. The Volt is now on the chopping block; GM is giving out strong hints that a 3rd generation will not be produced.

By comparison, Tesla is hitting 800.
Volt is still a great car :p Loving my high mileage car that I picked up for the model 3 wait. I'm even going to fix the cracked lower bumper for about $300, although I know I shouldn't bother since it will be sold once I get a 3. I probably should not be investing in it at this point, but I like it allot more than I thought I would, so why not?! The Volt is probably allot more practical for most people than a tesla would be, at least for some time, if we are being honest. Most peoples daily commutes are under 50 miles, and it's easier to find a gas station than plan a trip around superchargers when you need the extended range... Nice compromise between gas and electric prices too. But who wants practical? Much more fun to be a member of the tesla cult and get something after waiting years for it :D.
 
However, any reputable article also links to the actual report.
Articles that are intentionally misleading are easily corrected IF there is real information from Tesla.
Without that real information, you simply have a case of he said she said, which fits into the short term goal of the shorts.

All of that doesn't matter because: "If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it." This has been confirmed in studies since 1977:

Illusory truth effect - Wikipedia

We live in an era of "truthiness", when fake news easily enters into the public consciousness. Just look at FaceBook's role in the 2016 election. None of your suggestions above work because:

• The "reputable article"s are outnumbered by the ones that don't link. (Look at all the clickbait gaming for SEO on Yahoo.)
• Articles that are intentionally misleading are not fixed with corrections, and the follow up article that corrects the wrong one is forgotten. (The correction isn't "news".)
• The shorts, when it suits them, accuse every Tesla representative of lying, "which fits into the short term goal of the shorts.", so it doesn't matter how much "real information" Tesla supplies.

My advice: Don't feed the trolls.
 
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At the last minute, after camping out at the mall on 3/31/16, we made 2 reservations. So glad we did! We took delivery of mine 3/31/18. My husband is waiting for white interior and he believes we only need one of them to be the long-range battery. He has changed his mind about auto-pilot, now he wants it! But, I don't know how much longer he'll be able to hold out, he loves the M3 so much.
 
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The problem is M3 has too many reservation. Optimal should be a 6-9 mos backlog. Too many reservations has both negative and positive impact. The large reservation number is great. Proves that demand is good. But it cause a problem where there are more people reserve base on hunch (they may order or not). This cause the wait time to appear longer than it actually is. Because not so serious buyer reserve to be in line, do not configure their car or cancel, cause the wait time to balloon - put off some new reserver. Whatever, the bottom line is, reserve number does not matter. Cancellation number does not matter. M3 has plenty of demand. More FUD... ignore. move on.
 
All of that doesn't matter because: "If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it." This has been confirmed in studies since 1977:

Illusory truth effect - Wikipedia

We live in an era of "truthiness", when fake news easily enters into the public consciousness. Just look at FaceBook's role in the 2016 election. None of your suggestions above work because:

• The "reputable article"s are outnumbered by the ones that don't link. (Look at all the clickbait gaming for SEO on Yahoo.)
• Articles that are intentionally misleading are not fixed with corrections, and the follow up article that corrects the wrong one is forgotten. (The correction isn't "news".)
• The shorts, when it suits them, accuse every Tesla representative of lying, "which fits into the short term goal of the shorts.", so it doesn't matter how much "real information" Tesla supplies.

My advice: Don't feed the trolls.

Sure, but don't go crying "Troll" everytime there is a article you view as critical of Tesla.
This wasn't a troll. It isn't a hit piece. It is written in a very even handed manner.
It reports on both the people getting refunds as well as those making reservations.
It mentions possible reasons without making factual statements.

Will some use the data in here to point at and yell "the sky is falling!"? Sure, but they have been yelling that anyways.
The majority of the investors use data. The majority of the shorts (which I don't count as investors) don't, which is why they tend to loose a lot of money.

If you start yelling "Troll" at anything that even indirectly could be viewed as negative, you simply feed into the 'cult' view of Tesla fans.
 
I am surprised there are only 23% cancellations - I thought there will be much more. It is good for Tesla that some of the "not very determined" buyers decided to cancel, as having such a big number of reservations without being able to give them cars in a reasonable period of time, creates a lot of frustration and disillusion...

It is easy to put one grand for your place in line..... Then the push comes to shove and you have to figure out how to produce 50-60 grand; It is just natural that some people get cold feet.... I bet that many of the cancellations came when people got the invitation to configure.... That's why Feb, Mar, Apr are higher cancellation numbers... Many people can afford to emotionally jump in to an idea by putting $1000 - and without risk - they can always get it back if change their mind... When committing to the configuration and paying another non-refundable $2500, that is that - point of no-return! I always thought at least half of all the reservation holders will cancel.... It is human nature!

As far as the future demand for the car, I do not worry... I got my Model 3 last Wednesday in Toronto and the last 3 days at work it was "show and tell"... I showed the car and gave rides to most of my colleagues, and all of them were without exception VERY impressed... They did not expect such a revolutionary product.... And all of them conceded that the future of cars is electric.... Two of my colleagues (younger ones) asked me a lot of EV financial and economic questions and said they will put a deposit for a Model 3. Three others said they will wait for Model Y or the Tesla truck.... All of them said they are seriously considering a Tesla or another EV as their future car....

After seeing the reaction of all the people whom I showed the car, I am sure that the more the car is getting in the hands of the people, the more and more people will want one and will order one.... The EV revolution is happening and Tesla is at the forefront of it!
 
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Sure, but don't go crying "Troll" everytime there is a article you view as critical of Tesla.
This wasn't a troll. It isn't a hit piece.

If you start yelling "Troll" at anything...

No, that's you putting words in my mouth and taking my words out of context, hence proving my point about sloppy journalism. Enough of that. Nowhere did I say this report's author is a "Troll". Maybe you're thinking of someone else.
I'm showing why your expectation of "transparency" from Tesla is unreasonable in today's circumstances. Tesla doing so would feed (indirectly or otherwise) trolls and short sellers.
 
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Volt is still a great car :p Loving my high mileage car that I picked up for the model 3 wait. I'm even going to fix the cracked lower bumper for about $300, although I know I shouldn't bother since it will be sold once I get a 3. I probably should not be investing in it at this point, but I like it allot more than I thought I would, so why not?! The Volt is probably allot more practical for most people than a tesla would be, at least for some time, if we are being honest. Most peoples daily commutes are under 50 miles, and it's easier to find a gas station than plan a trip around superchargers when you need the extended range... Nice compromise between gas and electric prices too. But who wants practical? Much more fun to be a member of the tesla cult and get something after waiting years for it :D.
I agree the volt is a great car. We still have one and a MS.
Both black. The GF drives the volt and hates when the engine runs for maintenance. During the summer months she gets close to 50 miles a charge...plenty for town driving.
 
I agree articles always have some errors. However, any reputable article also links to the actual report.
Articles that are intentionally misleading are easily corrected IF there is real information from Tesla.
Without that real information, you simply have a case of he said she said, which fits into the short term goal of the shorts.

My god I wish Electrek would link to the source, but they never do. They link to they're own prior articles. They mention quote emails from Tesla employees without ever posting the email in full. They very rarely link to an external source but seem to do anything they can to avoid it.

But he isn't the only one. Read Internal documents reveal Tesla is blowing through an insane amount of raw material and cash to make Model 3s, and production is still a nightmare and tell me what link on that page reveals the source the article is referring to.
 
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All of that doesn't matter because: "If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it." This has been confirmed in studies since 1977:

Illusory truth effect - Wikipedia

We live in an era of "truthiness", when fake news easily enters into the public consciousness. Just look at FaceBook's role in the 2016 election. None of your suggestions above work because:

• The "reputable article"s are outnumbered by the ones that don't link. (Look at all the clickbait gaming for SEO on Yahoo.)
• Articles that are intentionally misleading are not fixed with corrections, and the follow up article that corrects the wrong one is forgotten. (The correction isn't "news".)
• The shorts, when it suits them, accuse every Tesla representative of lying, "which fits into the short term goal of the shorts.", so it doesn't matter how much "real information" Tesla supplies.

My advice: Don't feed the trolls.
This "problem is way down the list.
Fewer trust the media day by day.

Tesla can't make ANY of its cars fast enough.
backlog vs bigger backlog = pretty meaningless - except perhaps for the stock manipulators.
 
Here in the flyover country I have not seen a single one. But the other day as I was getting in my MS a guy said "nice car...I am waiting on my Model 3 should have it in a couple weeks" So I guess they are coming.
 
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The whole article and chart is confusing and contradictory.
  • Tesla says these figures don't agree with theirs
  • 63K cancellations out of 450K reservations is 13% not 23%
  • a significant number of those model 3 reservations were converted to model S/X sales, which is what Tesla was trying to do in the first place.
  • If the chart is extrapolated based on whatever index they are using, it shows a factor of 525 (units?, the orange bars) cancelled while a factor of 810 (units? the blue bars) new reservations during that same period. That is a net gain for the number of reservations.
The title of the article is poorly written and although very interesting from a different and positive perspective, does amount to "clickbait."
 
My god I wish Electrek would link to the source, but they never do. They link to they're own prior articles. They mention quote emails from Tesla employees without ever posting the email in full. They very rarely link to an external source but seem to do anything they can to avoid it.

But he isn't the only one. Read Internal documents reveal Tesla is blowing through an insane amount of raw material and cash to make Model 3s, and production is still a nightmare and tell me what link on that page reveals the source the article is referring to.
SEC Filings | Tesla, Inc.
check SEC docs above - FORM 10Q - load up the html version
Ctrl-f to look for raw materials
and any other key words
IF you read this document (even if you don't understand the financial numbers) you'll probably be able to answer most questions asked on Tuesday.

AND you'll see why Elon has little patients for these guys calling in who can't take time to read.
AND you'll spot Media BS much easier.

please try