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Blog Report: Tesla Has Refunded 23% of Model 3 Deposits

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Nearly a quarter of all Model 3 deposits in the U.S. have been refunded, according to a report from a company that analyses anonymized credit and debit card purchases.

About 450,000 people gave a $1,000 deposit to reserve a place in line for Tesla’s electric car for the masses. However, Second Measure says 23 percent of those people have asked for their money back.

A Tesla spokesperson told Recode that Second Measure’s data does not match its own, but did not offer more specifics. Second Measure says its numbers matched when Tesla CEO Elon Musk disclosed reservation figures last August that suggested 63,000 reservations had been canceled.

“Our analysis aligns with Tesla’s reported figures, also finding that 12 percent of deposits had been refunded at that time,” the report says.

tesla-chart2b-v3.png


The Model 3 has experienced serious production woes that could push out delivery of some reservations for years. It’s understandable that some consumers either can’t or are not willing to wait that long for a new vehicle. Still, there’s no doubt that Tesla will continue to sell Model 3s as fast as they can make them.

The company said it delivered just 8,180 Model 3s last quarter, but expects to notch a significant milestone in production this month.

“Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June,” Musk said in a letter to employees in April. “Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.”

Model 3 deposits are fully refundable up until the customer configures a car by selecting features and paying an additional fee of $2,500. After configuration, vehicles are typically delivered in just a few weeks.

Update: It’s worth noting that canceled reservations for the Model 3 may have been converted to orders for a Model S or Model X.

 
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This is just FUD. When Tesla starts building the standard battery Model 3 at the end of this year or early next year, the flood gates will open. Reservations won't matter anymore.

Diasagree. If the article had said "Tesla reservations collapsing as hoards flee two year wait!", I would agree it is FUD.
This is simply an analysis of information that can be found by a third party. Considering the longer than expected ramp to full production, it also doesn't seem unreasonable.

Now, we could certainly get more accurate information directly from Tesla. When Tesla isn't forthcoming with that data, other people will try to fill in the blanks.
We do it, Bloomberg News did it with their Tracker (based in part off of the ones created by forum members), this company did it, and yes, the FUDsters on Seeking Alpha do it.

Best way to stop it is for Tesla to be more transparent.
 
How would they spin mine I wonder... I am an un-converted reservation from Day 1 line, when we didn't know how far off was Model Y. I don't need a Model 3, since my Model S is running fine... this should be a positive, right? I am willing to let TM keep my deposit until the Y is orderable, or until I need to replace the S, that trust should be spun as another positive ...RIGHT?
 
Not surprising, but also not a particularly meaningful number in my opinion. Some of those are up-sells, but there's probably a significant chunk that thought they were going to be able to buy a $27,500 Tesla and it's pretty obvious at this point that few if any SRs will be sold before the credit starts to phase out. I'd also bet a decent chunk were people hoping to flip the car at a profit and the window for that is closing. It'll probably only be another year before you start to see used Model 3s hitting the market for reasonable prices as people opt for newer features.

Concur with your first point, but not the second. Most likely folks wanted a new car for $27.5k, but then the extra year before the SR goes into production just means that they buy something else (Volt, Prius, Camry...). How many folks have we seen on TMC with current leases expiring in '18, and deciding what to do?
 
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How would they spin mine I wonder... I am an un-converted reservation from Day 1 line, when we didn't know how far off was Model Y. I don't need a Model 3, since my Model S is running fine... this should be a positive, right? I am willing to let TM keep my deposit until the Y is orderable, or until I need to replace the S, that trust should be spun as another positive ...RIGHT?
Since you didn't cancel, they'd consider you waiting to configure. However, if you had cancelled then they might claim that you are disillusioned with Tesla and fed up with the wait. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
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Diasagree. If the article had said "Tesla reservations collapsing as hoards flee two year wait!", I would agree it is FUD.
This is simply an analysis of information that can be found by a third party. Considering the longer than expected ramp to full production, it also doesn't seem unreasonable.

Now, we could certainly get more accurate information directly from Tesla. When Tesla isn't forthcoming with that data, other people will try to fill in the blanks.
We do it, Bloomberg News did it with their Tracker (based in part off of the ones created by forum members), this company did it, and yes, the FUDsters on Seeking Alpha do it.

Best way to stop it is for Tesla to be more transparent.

It's FUD because the only purpose of the article is click bait and to promote the short thesis. Elon already said many times that reservations are stable and the only reason people cancel is because of the wait.

The headline is key. Other similar FUD would be to say that 4% of Tesla owners say they will never buy another Tesla. Or that 70% of new Tesla buyers don't want FSD. (I'm just making up these numbers of course)
 
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Reactions: adaptabl
This number doesn't say much, it probably became more popular in America and Canada and maybe a bit less in Europe.
If you read the original article it's specifically about US deposits only.

I'm somewhat concerned that the trend may grow once the federal tax credit starts phasing out. Alternatively, Tesla may have to lower prices to compensate which will reduce their profit margins The cancellations may also have a significant effect on Tesla's dwindling cash, since the reservations make up a full third of their cash holdings according to the article. Hopefully they'll become profitable before it becomes critical.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Rowan256
Diasagree. If the article had said "Tesla reservations collapsing as hoards flee two year wait!", I would agree it is FUD.
This is simply an analysis of information that can be found by a third party. Considering the longer than expected ramp to full production, it also doesn't seem unreasonable.

Now, we could certainly get more accurate information directly from Tesla. When Tesla isn't forthcoming with that data, other people will try to fill in the blanks.
We do it, Bloomberg News did it with their Tracker (based in part off of the ones created by forum members), this company did it, and yes, the FUDsters on Seeking Alpha do it.

Best way to stop it is for Tesla to be more transparent.
Care to actually read say the 10Q and tell us jest what/where you want/need more transparency ??
Tesla - Quarterly Report

Perhaps the FORM 8K?
Tesla - Current Report

nearly $1billion in deposits - can only make about 100,000 Model S/X per year max. we shall see how Tesla does.
side note: industry reports sedan sales down, SUV sales up - If Tesla can make the 100,000 who cares about the mix?

What transparency problem ??
 
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I stood in line on the first day, and I observed a very large amount of people reserved TWO cars, believing they would or could sell off one of their reservations. I bet many of these cancellations were not wanting the 2nd car, because they could not sell their reservations for a profit, or sell their 2nd Model 3 right away and keep the tax break.

I actually cancelled my reservation, becuase I was able to buy a used (200 mi) Model 3 early with the exact specifications I was looking for.
 
Hopefully they'll become profitable before it becomes critical.
Elon said Q3 will be profitable. I have no doubt as he previously stated 2.5k/week is a break even rate and with 200k in the rear view mirror there'll be nothing to hold them back from 5-6k/week.
He also said need 3-6 months after 5k/week to make $35k Tesla and live. They'll have the rest of this year at 5k/week. Hopefully, when they start making a $35k version half of their production will still be higher optioned configurations from the international backlog. I'm pretty optimistic about them staying afloat.
 
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A bit strange they only show numbers after May 2017.

Why? Could it be because so many ordered the Tesla Model 3 in the year prior to that that these later numbers doesn't matter in comparison? Show us the numbers of May 2016 for scale!
 
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My estimated guess is something like this:

Dec 31 2017
853.919.000
Mar 31 2018
984.823.000

Deposit possibilities:
Truck
Founder 200.000 Max 1,000 of them 50
First 5.000
later 20.000

Roadster deposit
Founder 250.000 only 1000 availeble
Normal 50.000 500
Model S 2.500 4.000
Model X 2.500 * 4.000
Model 3 1.000 * 680.000
Truck 200.000 * 50
Truck 20.000 * 1.000

Total deposit money amount of cars deposit money each car
10.000.000 50 * 200.000 Truck
20.000.000 1.000 * 20.000

250.000.000 250.000 * 1.000 Roadster
2.500.000 50.000 * 500

10.000.000 2.500 * 4.000 Model S
10.000.000 2.500 * 4.000 Model X
680.000.000 1.000 * 680.000 Model 3


Well, I hope the spacebars won't mess up my message too hard, but I estimate there are still about 680.000 Model 3 reservations between all cars and trucks worldwide.

*Edit: Oké, spacebars got completely ignored so it looks like trash.
 
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maybe but I don't think we've seen a bump in Model S/X sales to support that idea. In fact Model S sales are down about 10% vs last year.

We did see an increase in the reservation list for S&X, which supports that idea. In the Tesla quarterly call they said Tesla diverted labor from S&X to Model 3, which slowed down deliveries of S&X explaining the lack of a bump in S&X sales and contributing to an increase the reservation list for S&X.

Tesla extends delay on new Model S and Model X orders, says high demand is creating a backlog

That article was in February, which is around the time the orange bars in today's article grow.
 
My estimated guess is something like this:

Dec 31 2017
853.919.000
Mar 31 2018
984.823.000

Deposit possibilities:
Truck
Founder 200.000 Max 1,000 of them 50
First 5.000
later 20.000

Roadster deposit
Founder 250.000 only 1000 availeble
Normal 50.000 500
Model S 2.500 4.000
Model X 2.500 * 4.000
Model 3 1.000 * 680.000
Truck 200.000 * 50
Truck 20.000 * 1.000

Total deposit money amount of cars deposit money each car
10.000.000 50 * 200.000 Truck
20.000.000 1.000 * 20.000

250.000.000 250.000 * 1.000 Roadster
2.500.000 50.000 * 500

10.000.000 2.500 * 4.000 Model S
10.000.000 2.500 * 4.000 Model X
680.000.000 1.000 * 680.000 Model 3


Well, I hope the spacebars won't mess up my message too hard, but I estimate there are still about 680.000 Model 3 reservations between all cars and trucks worldwide.

*Edit: Oké, spacebars got completely ignored so it looks like trash.

I wonder if the $2500 between configuration and delivery sits in that fund as well. If so your quantity of reservations is high.

Imagine 6,000 S and X and whatever the current float of Model 3 all times $2,500. Each one counting to reduce the Model 3 reservation estimate by 2.5. So if it is 10,000 cars float, it'd be 25,000 less reservations?