Resale value of EVs?

[Fr23shjive]

With the majority of costs of EVs coming from the battery and degradation of about 60-65% over 7 years/100k miles, what will be the resale value of an EV?

To me EVs are going to be similar to computers. The technology on EVs are going to advance rapidly and by the time an EV is paid off technology will have advanced so much that the residual value will be very low compared to an ICE vehicle. Granted, batteries will probably be dramatically less expensive in 5-7 years but it still doesnt bode well for the resale value of an EV when for the most part the battery is going to need to be replaced.

Do you agree? How will this affect EV sales?

 

[ckessel]

Battery tech hasn't ever really followed the computer tech curve, so I don't think EVs are going to suffer much on that account, plus batteries are replaceable. Also, I assume you meant degradation to 60-65% not of 60-65%, though even degrading to 65% sounds a bit low based on the estimates Tesla has given in the past.

I don't see any reason to believe at this point that EV resale will be significantly different than any other car.

 

[Lloyd]

Tesla has posted that they expect 70 to 80% capacity after 7 years. Many Rav4 EV's from 2002 are still on the road with their original batteries and still have great capacity! As a collectors item they are selling
still for a premium. There is one for sale on E-bay. $20,400. current bid. I'd say that is a pretty good resale after 10 years. Time will tell.....

With the majority of costs of EVs coming from the battery and degradation of about 60-65% over 7 years/100k miles, what will be the resale value of an EV?

To me EVs are going to be similar to computers. The technology on EVs are going to advance rapidly and by the time an EV is paid off technology will have advanced so much that the residual value will be very low compared to an ICE vehicle. Granted, batteries will probably be dramatically less expensive in 5-7 years but it still doesnt bode well for the resale value of an EV when for the most part the battery is going to need to be replaced.

Do you agree? How will this affect EV sales?

 

[Sparrow]

I don't think it will be quite like a computers. You had to continue to upgrade your computer because the uses for computers kept expanding and needing more capabilities. The uses for an automobile are pretty much fixed unless we start needing even more speed or start flying or sailing in them. That said the point about battery degradation and better batteries does make used EVs somewhat less valuable. I believe, the availability of replacement packs especially upgraded capacity packs for those used EVs would offset those problems quite a bit.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think the resell value will probably be pretty good.

You just have to replace the battery and do a full service, and the car is almost as good as new. Of course, you won't have all the latest gadgets, but no old car does.

If we look a a Model S and assume you have to replace the battery after 8 years, and the price has dropped by 50% for the same capacity, the replacement battery will probably cost $20,000 for the 85 kWh. How much do you think a $80,000 car that is as new (with a battery that is good for another 8 years) will be worth? $50k?
Detract the $20k for the battery and the remaining value of the car before battery replacement is $30k. That's 11.5% depreciation per year. Not at all bad.

Of course, we won't have the answer until around 2021 before we know how much a Model S depreciates in 8 years - but it essentially boils down to this - how much would you pay for a car that has been done work on to make it as good as new after 8 years?

(Looked a bit more at the numbers, and if we assume the resell value is $40k, the depreciation is still only 16% per year. That's not unusually high. I would think this would be a very good price - you'd get a 7 seater electric car with 300 mile range, 0-60 mph of 5.6 seconds and it should be good for another 8 years with minimal maintenance.)

 

[vfx]

I don't think it will be quite like a computers. You had to continue to upgrade your computer because the uses for computers kept expanding and needing more capabilities. The uses for an automobile are pretty much fixed unless we start needing even more speed or start flying or sailing in them. That said the point about battery degradation and better batteries does make used EVs somewhat less valuable. I believe, the availability of replacement packs especially upgraded capacity packs for those used EVs would offset those problems quite a bit.

Agree with this. It's almost more that an EV is ages like a house. You still can live in it but after time (10 to 30 years) it needs a refurbish as infrastructure like electrical, plumbing and insulation are tired, and appliances and styling get dated.

 

[Ardie]

Yeah, I think we will have to calculate an electric car's depreciation in three parts:

Part 1 will be the body and mechanics of the car,
Part 2 will be the on-board electronics, and
Part 3 will be the battery.

The body and coachwork will probably age similarly to current cars of the day. Maybe better if the aluiminum body holds up better than its steel competitors in cold, wintery (and salted) climates. (Maybe worse if the 7 seats encourage folks to carry around a pack of children who behave like wild animals. Did anybody watch that "MOM my ride" video?)

I expect that the battery will play a minor (but significant) consideration in the valuation. Batteries age, and become worn out. So do engines. That's why we look at the mileage when we consider buying a used car.
So the big question is "will a replacement battery pack cost <less | the same as | more than> a replacement engine?"
We all expect technology to improve battery performance and/or reduce their prices, so it may end up costing much less to swap out a battery pack than it would be to overhaul a similar ICE car.
That would make such a car's useable lifetime considerably longer.


The on-board electronics, though, will probably fall out of favor quickly. (Hey, *I* don't buy a car for the radio in the dashboard, but I might be the only one.) See how the tape player, or CD player for that matter, are passé nowadays? Sheesh. Without an app to control your car from anywhere, your car is sooo 2010. No active noise cancellation from the 22 speakers? No self-tinting windows? No streaming video from the car's 8 cameras? No anti-theft system that locks the doors, windows and seatbelts, engages the GPS and auto-drives the car to the nearest police station? Pffft.
Oh, well. A car company needs a reason for you to get the latest model.




-- Ardie

"What do you mean, they don't make the 18650 battery anymore?"

 

[Lloyd]

MOM my ride: As a car lover, this is painful! Sorry OT !

 

[smorgasbord]

The truth is that even high end cars at 100K miles don't have much resale vale. The divide is very obvious just looking up and down the road that the Santana Row store is on. On their side of Hwy 17 the road is Steven's Creek Blvd., and it has new car dealerships and high-end used car places. Cross the highway and the road is called West San Carlos St. and there are low-end used car places - the cars with more than 100K miles. With some Model S batteries being warrantied for over 100K miles, you're going to be looking pretty good trying to sell a 5 year old car with 60K miles - that's less than half the guaranteed life for the 85kWh battery. ICE cars warranties run out at 12K or 36K or 50K miles at best. Then, as has been stated earlier, putting a new battery in will pretty much return the car to performing as new (Roadster owners are hoping for a bump in range and/or decrease in weight to also increase performance). People don't rebuild/replace engines in normal cars reaching 100K miles - even luxury ones, as it's just not worth the trouble and expense. Replacing batteries in EVs will become more common, I believe, thus reducing the environmental impact from having to trash cars and build so many new ones.

 

[vfx]

MOM my ride: As a car lover, this is painful! Sorry OT !

Forgot the M&Ms in the defroster vents and the family sticker(s) in the rear window.

French fries was so right though.

 

[Steph]

As a small plane private pilot, I can see EV lasting much longer then ICE. I usually fly a Cessna 172 made in the 70's or 80's

These plane a lasting forever because they are being maintained as new. The most part of the cost is the engine. Having a battery and an electric motor, a C172 would required very little maintenance and last as long.

Other similarities with airplanes is when they age, avionics are replaced, It will be easy to upgrade a model S with new electronics in the future. Airplane used prices are mostly based on remaining time before engine replacement or refurbished, EVs will be probably priced the same way, time (or miles) remaining before the battery is unusable. (unusable may mean different things depending on who you speak with)

 

[vfx]

.... Replacing batteries in EVs will become more common, I believe, thus reducing the environmental impact from having to trash cars and build so many new ones.

This is a great argument for the "What will happen to all those batteries?" question.

A recycled car is longer on the road and is better for the planet. When an EV needs a new battery at 100k miles the new battery gives the car a better range and the old battery gets recycled. At the same time the car gets a new life. At the end of an ICE engine's life the car gets scrapped because it's just not worth changing out all the dirty worn out things that make a burner work.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think used EV batteries have a great future in grid energy storage as well as off-grid energy storage. It's important to squeeze every but of utility out of the batteries before recycling them.

 

[dhrivnak]

Looking at the 7 Roadsters for sale on eBay alone and how few have sold. I am afraid the resale value does not appear to be great. Or at least not much better than similar performance cars.

 

[vfx]

Buy it now for $62.5 K. Low 4K miles.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/e...104373&viewitem=&sspagename=ADME:B:SS:US:1123

 

[Yggdrasill]

Buy it now for $62.5 K. Low 4K miles.

That's about 13% depreciation per year. That's not too bad.

 

[Dan5]

Looking at the 7 Roadsters for sale on eBay alone and how few have sold. I am afraid the resale value does not appear to be great. Or at least not much better than similar performance cars.

It's like every other high performance car, there's an old saying about a Ferrari for every price range.

Almost the same percentage as the Lotus, new one is around 70 K, used 2008 is around 40 K

 

[smoothoperator]

It's like every other high performance car, there's an old saying about a Ferrari for every price range.

Almost the same percentage as the Lotus, new one is around 70 K, used 2008 is around 40 K

Yea but these roadsters are supposed to be the future of the automobile, where as current Lotus and Ferrari models are not nearly as revolutionary as the Roadster. I think people were hoping that Roadster prices would stay high due the rarity,uniqueness, and revolutionary nature of the vehicle. Seems as if the market does not see the Roadster as any different than any other vehicle in its class, perhaps its because most people see the Tesla as an electrified Elise?

 

[rabar10]

Yea but these roadsters are supposed to be the future of the automobile, where as current Lotus and Ferrari models are not nearly as revolutionary as the Roadster. I think people were hoping that Roadster prices would stay high due the rarity,uniqueness, and revolutionary nature of the vehicle. Seems as if the market does not see the Roadster as any different than any other vehicle in its class, perhaps its because most people see the Tesla as an electrified Elise?

Maybe those with the interest, knowledge, and funds to buy a used Roadster are instead holding out for a new Model S?

 

[smoothoperator]

Maybe those with the interest, knowledge, and funds to buy a used Roadster are instead holding out for a new Model S?

maybe so but its not like they made several thousand roadsters....there should have been enough pent up demand (without dipping into future Model S purchasers) over the years to keep used roadster prices higher than similarly priced sports cars? That is what is most surprising to me.