Resale Value of Model s after Model 3

[WestCoastP85D]

IMHO, this thread is silly.

Model S is the A8/S-Class/BMW 7-Series of Tesla. The Model 3 is the 3-series/A4/C-Class. Different demographics, different target personas, difference capabilities.

Yes, the Model S will depreciate as used cars do that. Yes, feature capabilities will improve from top to bottom. But when BMW intro'd the new 4-series Grand Coupe, 7-series sales/resales didn't collapse.

 

[DRasheed]

I am expecting that model 3 production will start to trickle in early 2018, hit some sort of decent pace in mid 2018, and then really start cranking in 2019. If that is the case, then the only people getting a model 3 in the next 3 years will be those who signed up on the first day. Everyone else who reads and hears about the car in the next 2 years and wants one will be hopelessly buried in the queue.

During that time, a lot of those buyers will get excited about a tesla and look to a used model S as an alternative to waiting for years. So I think during the 2016-2018 period the demand for used model S will increase, therefore increasing the price.

If the model 3 turns out great and production is strong enough to meet all the demand with a minimal wait, then in 2019 and beyond the availability of the model 3 might start to hurt the model S value. but it is not something I'm worried about now...

 

[SDRick]

Nothing will affect used and new model S pricing in the next 2-4 years more than what the competition comes up with. ie if BMW took their 5 or 7 luxury platform and features with a Tesla type drivetrain there would be some serious competition and price compression. As it is, my wife's $98,000 2015 750 leased for $916 per month with nothing down (plus tax). Put Tesla's drivetrain underneath it and I'm all over it.

Either way I still want a P90D now but trying to justify the numbers.

 

[tomas]

Hmmm... perhaps more important question is whether/how much the 3 will cannibalize Model S sales as we approach 2017. I think Tesla will be challenged to keep $40k+ worth of additional value in the S. Size, yes. Perhaps interior features - though the spartan look is Tesla's interior trademark. Perhaps more AP - though that will flow down to the 3. Perhaps battery - though that also flows down with greater effect to the lighter, more aerodynamic 3. Making the 3 so appealing 2+ years in advance of volume shipments is a two edged sword. I'm sure they've pondered this, and it will be interesting to see the tactics.

 

[Dithermaster]

I know Model 3 is being compared to BMW 3 Series and Audi A4, but both of those have been around for a while.

To get a better understanding of "does a brand new lower end model hurt resale of older larger model", we could look at: Did BMW 1 Series hurt 3 Series (or higher) value? Did Audi A3 hurt A4 (or higher) value? I don't have numbers, but it didn't seem to me that they did.