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Resale Value of Performance Model 3

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I'm doing a budget calculation and am curious about people's thoughts on this, since I don't have good data on how Teslas fare in terms of resale value.

1. Is it reasonable to assume that the car will loose ~20% of its value during the first year of ownership, and perhaps 15% in each the 2nd and 3rd year (so it will have lost ~half its value after 3 years)?

2. Can I expect a Performance Model 3 to retain a decent portion of its $10k premium over AWD, $15k over RWD, if I sell it? Say I sell after 5 years, and assuming the above total depreciation of 50%, will it sell for $5k more than an AWD (when it originally cost $10k more)?

3. It is reasonable to assume that since tax credits will expire by next summer, that the $7,500 I will have received absorb some of the depreciation (say the car looses 20%=$15k in value in the first year, that would become $7500 after tax credits).

Just trying to get a sense if these guesstimates are completely crazy one way or another, or sound reasonable. Thank you!
 
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