Resale?

[carguy]

Hello-
I don't generally keep my cars very long and frequently sell or trade them within 1 to 2 years. Does anyone have an expectation of resale values on the Model S?

I totally understand that cars depreciate- I'm all too familiar with that. But I'm wondering how you guys think that the Model S will do vs. other luxury cars? I ask because I have to factor this into my decision more than most buyers, as I'll likely want to try something else new fairly soon.

Thanks,
Dave

 

[FlasherZ]

I think you're going to get a bunch of speculation... I thought about it for a little while and put some pros (constrained supply) and cons (limited demand, losing $7500 tax rebate) together in my head. Bottom line, I couldn't come up with a target. I think you're going to have to put a number out there and see if anyone bites.

 

[dsm363]

Welcome! I don't think most people will get tired of this car after a year but everyone is different.

You are already taking a major hit driving that first mile in the car. If you really get a new car that often then resale value (while important) probably isn't an issue financially. Just a guess though. If you were keeping the car 5+ years then it might be more of a factor.

 

[thelastdeadmouse]

No idea personally but you can send me a PM when the time comes and we might work something out. :smile:

I desperately want a Tesla, don't want to wait the (probably) 4 years for a Gen III, but also don't currently make enough money to rationalize a new 60kwh or 85kwh. So I'm going to be in the market for a used Model S as soon as used cars start showing up for a discount under new prices.

 

[mknox]

I've spoken with a few people who have decided to lease rather than buy hybrid vehicles over the years because of the supposed big hit in value the cars take because of their batteries. The fear is that someone who buys a used hybrid will be in for a big bill when they have to replace its battery. I can only imagine the same "fear" will drive down resale values of pure BEVs.

 

[jeff_adams]

I tend to think they will do real well with resale depending on your willingness to market it outside your local area. Because Tesla does not have dealerships, buyers are not likely to find these on car lots. I think that means lots of long distant sales. That is higher demand and better resale value

 

[MikeC]

This doesn't answer your question, but I can't imagine what car you would get in 1-2 years that wouldn't be a huge downgrade (except for a Model X or Model S 2.0)

 

[jerry33]

I've spoken with a few people who have decided to lease rather than buy hybrid vehicles over the years because of the supposed big hit in value the cars take because of their batteries. The fear is that someone who buys a used hybrid will be in for a big bill when they have to replace its battery. I can only imagine the same "fear" will drive down resale values of pure BEVs.

In practice, hybrids--or at least the Prius--hold their value very well. High ticket cars, not so much. I expect that the Model S will take a big hit because of the class of car it is, not because it's electric. After all, you could pre-pay the replacement battery which means a minimum of sixteen years before you have to purchase a third battery.

 

[William13]

Let me take a stab at this.

Sticker price
-$7500 gov credit
-20%(sticker) no longer new. There is only a two month wait currently.
-$1.00/mile driven
= resale price

 

[qwk]

Let me take a stab at this.

Sticker price
-$7500 gov credit
-20%(sticker) no longer new. There is only a two month wait currently.
-$1.00/mile driven
= resale price

So a base 85kwh with 20k miles sells for $36k? Lol
Not going to happen.

 

[LagunaDallas]

Good question. I've had 30 cars and rarely keep anything longer than a year, so I had the same concern. I've had a handful of cars that stickered near or above $100K, but have purchased all but 1 used after the steepest part of the depreciation curve was over. After just 6 weeks with this car, I have no idea what I'd even replace it with. It'd be really strange to sell this and go back to an ICE (like my previous M-B CLS550). I love the car so much that I stopped caring about depreciation and will deal with it when the time comes. I can say with great certainty that no other new $100K car would make me feel that way.

 

[yobigd20]

So a base 85kwh with 20k miles sells for $36k? Lol
Not going to happen.

Believe it or not, that's basically the same calculation that would be made for the 'fair value' under most state Lemon Laws if you needed to use that for some reason on the P85. The law states that the manufacturer must repurchase the vehicle back at the purchase price minus a “reasonable allowance for vehicle use” fee. In NJ, this is defined as: "This deduction equals the total purchase price multiplied by the mileage at the time the vehicle was first brought to the dealer or manufacturer for repair of the defect, divided by 100,000 miles."

So basically this fee is calculated as follows: (milesDriven/100,000miles) * totalPurchasePrice. Since the P85 was ~$100,000, that translates to $1.00/mile driven. So lets say I drive 40,000 in 12 months and I need to lemon the car for some reason (hypothetical of course, I friggin love my Tesla), under the law, Tesla would buy the car back at purchase price minus fair usage fee. so (40,000/100,000)*$100,000=fairUsageFee. So fairUsageFee=$40,000. So if you look at it that way, You bought it for $100,000, Tesla buys it back for $60,000, and the result is you "rented" the car for a year for $40,000.

Pretty crappy, seems unreal, but that's the law, and nothing you can do about it.

Basically the point is that while an 85kWh might not sell THAT low, I also wouldn't expect the resale value anywhere on the mid-to-high end of that scale. $50k maybe...? Total guess though.

 

[dave]

I am hopeful but not optimistic about high resale values. The first few years will be a typical steep drop, even more so since people would rather buy a new one to get the tax credit. In 4 or 5 years or so, there will be the usual depreciation, plus the fact that bigger / better batteries will probably begin popping up at better prices. I think we're all paying an early adopter tax. Buying new exciting tech is great, but you know new stuff will come out eventually, and then not only is it a used car, but a used car with outdated tech.

 

[mknox]

In practice, hybrids--or at least the Prius--hold their value very well. High ticket cars, not so much. I expect that the Model S will take a big hit because of the class of car it is, not because it's electric. After all, you could pre-pay the replacement battery which means a minimum of sixteen years before you have to purchase a third battery.

I don't know about the Prius, but I do know someone who *claims* to have taken a big hit with a Toyota Highlander hybrid.

 

[vfx]

If you sell when the X comes out you could get hit with the market glut of people swapping to the EVSUV they always wanted.

 

[Plug Me In]

I think it will depend if they're still producing the Model S in quantity or not. I'm curious what will happen next year when Model X production ramps up. If they scale down significantly on the MS, I suspect resale prices might stay pretty high.

I don't think it correlates well with a pure BEV, but resale prices on Priuses are pretty good. I just sold my 2006 Prius with 72K miles for $10K ($24K new) and it was cosmetically is pretty bad shape, although mechanically sound. Probably could have gotten 11K if I shopped it around more. Compare to the 2005 Passat wagon I traded in last year with similar mileage for $5K.

 

[jeff_adams]

I remember when iPods came out, they were so far ahead of the tech curve that they held their resale value well. Same with iPhones and iPads. There is nothing else out there like it. Unless they are plagued with serious problems like premature battery failures or safety issues, they should do well. Competition is years behind.

 

[v12 to 12v]

I think your best bet is to take a look at Roadster resale values. I waited for the price of Roadsters to come down for years. They didn't until the Model S hit the streets.

I can't make sense of comparing ICE or hybrid depreciaton trends. The Model S is very different. The Model S has continuous upgrades and updates with new features, few moving parts and no real competitor on the horizon. Some excellent battery replacement prices/programs are on the horizon but I am beginning to think that battery depreciation is only going to be a major factor for batteries that have not been cared for properly. After 4 months of use our standard range charge has acutally improved. I attribute to this to the batteries balancing out and conditioning. I expect our battery to have excellent capacity for many, many years to come.

I expect that your only real hope for depreciation of any significance is a Model S being offered with AWD. Although, as I drive the car more I realize that I really don't miss AWD like I thought I would.

 

[jeff_adams]

What is the average depreciation for Motor Trends "Car of The Year" vehicles? I bet it's less than average

 

[jomo25]

Not sure, but lets hope the MS fares better than the PT Cruiser (2001 MT COTY).