Resale?

[lolachampcar]

It will fall like an A8 or 750IL..
Normally, $1 a mile is reasonable for a three year old car.
This car will have a line of people that simply will not or can not take the new car depreciation hit.

Add it all up and you will be one of the first to the secondary market and thus the market will be stronger than an MB, Audi or BMW with the same sticker. I think you are in good shape but I would stick to the 85kw battery and (personally) performance which should not be a problem given your previous cars.

Those were my thoughts and I'm normally a three year guy. I hope Tesla has something better in three years

 

[Robert.Boston]

Another factor to consider is that the 2014 Model S will probably include some of the extras missing from the current version, e.g. power-folding mirrors and parking sensors. This evolution of the car won't help resale values for first-generation Model Ss.

 

[thelastdeadmouse]

I suspect that these first year cars, especially 85kwh vehicles, will keep their value very well for the first 2-3 years at least. There will be very few for sale on the market, and lots of people like myself that want one but can't afford the new price. When 2015 rolls around we're likely to see the Model S 2.0 and some earlier Model S owners will have owned their cars for 2-3 years, about the amount of time a lot of higher end new car buyers start looking to upgrade. At that point the market will start to balance out a bit.

Another thing that should keep it high for the next couple years is the apparent lack of any other manufacturer developing a 200+ mile electric car. The lack of alternatives will keep these are in demand for some time.

 

[CarlK]

I suspect that these first year cars, especially 85kwh vehicles, will keep their value very well for the first 2-3 years at least. There will be very few for sale on the market, and lots of people like myself that want one but can't afford the new price. When 2015 rolls around we're likely to see the Model S 2.0 and some earlier Model S owners will have owned their cars for 2-3 years, about the amount of time a lot of higher end new car buyers start looking to upgrade. At that point the market will start to balance out a bit.

Another thing that should keep it high for the next couple years is the apparent lack of any other manufacturer developing a 200+ mile electric car. The lack of alternatives will keep these are in demand for some time.

Hmmm...People can always buy a brand new MS with full 4 year warranty and their choice of color and options if the saving is not that significant, can't they?

 

[mknox]

So, are there actually any used Model S's out there yet? The only one I recall was a guy from (I think) New York who had ordered two Performance models and was offering one for a bit above the list price. That was some time ago.

 

[ByeEnzo]

Good question. I've had 30 cars and rarely keep anything longer than a year, so I had the same concern. I've had a handful of cars that stickered near or above $100K, but have purchased all but 1 used after the steepest part of the depreciation curve was over. After just 6 weeks with this car, I have no idea what I'd even replace it with. It'd be really strange to sell this and go back to an ICE (like my previous M-B CLS550). I love the car so much that I stopped caring about depreciation and will deal with it when the time comes. I can say with great certainty that no other new $100K car would make me feel that way.

My exact sentiments. The Tesla P85 fits the bill for me. I see myself as a long term owner. My first luxury sedan (I'm over 50 now). Super acceleration and handling, comfort, quietness, great sound system. This comes from a guy who has had some loud sportscars....2 Ford GT's (over 40k miles of seat time), a Carrera GT, and 360 Ch. Stradale.

 

[SebastianR]

I suspect that these first year cars, especially 85kwh vehicles, will keep their value very well for the first 2-3 years at least. There will be very few for sale on the market, and lots of people like myself that want one but can't afford the new price. When 2015 rolls around we're likely to see the Model S 2.0 and some earlier Model S owners will have owned their cars for 2-3 years, about the amount of time a lot of higher end new car buyers start looking to upgrade. At that point the market will start to balance out a bit.

Another thing that should keep it high for the next couple years is the apparent lack of any other manufacturer developing a 200+ mile electric car. The lack of alternatives will keep these are in demand for some time.

Good points, I think. For me, what it comes down to is the following:

Factors to will keep the price high:
- There is no alternative to the Model S out in the market. If you want 200 miles electric, the Model S is your only choice.
- If the Roadster is any benchmark the battery performance should be pretty ok over the coming years (it's not the same as your laptop)
- Until Gen3 comes out, there will be a lot of people who don't need to "have it new" but are ok with (or can't afford anything else but) a used Model S
- Predicable service costs (if they stay at the service plan level)
- Access to free Super Charger network

Factors that will push the price down:
- Any luxury car loses dramatically more value in the beginning than a car that's purely bought for mobility / cost reasons
- Any widening of the market in terms of alternatives (e.g. Model X, but also better versions of the Leaf etc.)
- Any unforeseen issue (e.g. if we learn that all 5 year old Model S all of a sudden need an expensive repair etc.) - on this last one, I don't see it right now, but you never know.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Another factor to consider is that the 2014 Model S will probably include some of the extras missing from the current version, e.g. power-folding mirrors and parking sensors. This evolution of the car won't help resale values for first-generation Model Ss.

That makes my first year S even better to me & worth a little more :wink:

 

[brianman]

That makes my first year S even better to me & worth a little more :wink:

Especially if the "extras" are government-mandated noise pollution.

 

[mknox]

Especially if the "extras" are government-mandated noise pollution.

If that is ever mandated (hopefully not!), I fear it may take the form of a recall and retrofit order.

 

[Robert.Boston]

If that is ever mandated (hopefully not!), I fear it may take the form of a recall and retrofit order.

This is already in federal law; the enabling regulations have been (thankfully) slow, however. I doubt that they will require retrofits.

 

[brianman]

If that is ever mandated (hopefully not!), I fear it may take the form of a recall and retrofit order.

... and aftermarket "improvements" that are mysteriously unreliable and break that functionality.