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resell value of model S in 2019
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davidc18
Active Member
Tesla is definitely positioning the model S as a step above the model 3 with more features and such, so I think there will definitely still be a market for the model S even when the model 3 is out.
But that said, the model 3 will still be a decent electric car for a lot less than the model S and some people who are buying the S now because it's the only choice might go with the 3 in two years to save money.
There are also people like you who will be planning to sell an older S and replace it with a 3, so there will probably be more used S's available.
I suspect that both of these facts will reduce the demand for the model S and will likely lower the price to some extent, but I don't think the value will totally tank either.
Like the pp said, buy the car because you want it and don't worry too much about the value in a few years. A car isn't an investment.
But that said, the model 3 will still be a decent electric car for a lot less than the model S and some people who are buying the S now because it's the only choice might go with the 3 in two years to save money.
There are also people like you who will be planning to sell an older S and replace it with a 3, so there will probably be more used S's available.
I suspect that both of these facts will reduce the demand for the model S and will likely lower the price to some extent, but I don't think the value will totally tank either.
Like the pp said, buy the car because you want it and don't worry too much about the value in a few years. A car isn't an investment.
a 2013 model has already taken a good depreciation hit. while I don't think that you'll ever see it's value higher than whatever you paid for it, I don't see it taking a massive hit again. the guys who will take a bigger hit are the ones who buy an S after the 3 is in production and proves itself a viable purchase.
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
People worried about Roadster values when the S came out. And classic S values when P, D, Autopilot, etc came out. And S values when the X came out.
There is always a hit to existing cars when something new comes out, but it never seems to be terribly large. The later the model and the more loaded it is, the larger the hit; but the effects of that wear off over time if you keep the car. The biggest impact on depreciation is generally not anything that happens externally, but how long you choose to keep the car. The longer you keep any car, the less it matters what happens with resale values.
Other manufacturers seem to manage to keep decent resale values on their high-end cars despite offering cheaper cars. The S will always have more room and flexibility with the hatch than a 3, and Musk said it would have more range, speed, and tech too. There are plenty of buyers for the high-end S, so demand for the S will not drop off a cliff.
Obviously some people buying the S now will move to the 3 when it is available. But keep in mind there will also be a lot more Teslas on the road, and that's Tesla's best form of advertising. Having a bunch of 3's on the street may get a lot more people interested in Tesla, and some of the newbies will want a Model S. While I wouldn't rank it as probable, it is possible that all the new interest could result in resale prices rising. More likely, it will slow down the downward price trend.
Plus there are many external events that could affect resale values. A change in incentives, a radical swing in gas prices, a large earthquake in Fremont, supplier issues, etc. In short, nobody knows what will happen to resale values. Nobody ever does.
There is always a hit to existing cars when something new comes out, but it never seems to be terribly large. The later the model and the more loaded it is, the larger the hit; but the effects of that wear off over time if you keep the car. The biggest impact on depreciation is generally not anything that happens externally, but how long you choose to keep the car. The longer you keep any car, the less it matters what happens with resale values.
Other manufacturers seem to manage to keep decent resale values on their high-end cars despite offering cheaper cars. The S will always have more room and flexibility with the hatch than a 3, and Musk said it would have more range, speed, and tech too. There are plenty of buyers for the high-end S, so demand for the S will not drop off a cliff.
Obviously some people buying the S now will move to the 3 when it is available. But keep in mind there will also be a lot more Teslas on the road, and that's Tesla's best form of advertising. Having a bunch of 3's on the street may get a lot more people interested in Tesla, and some of the newbies will want a Model S. While I wouldn't rank it as probable, it is possible that all the new interest could result in resale prices rising. More likely, it will slow down the downward price trend.
Plus there are many external events that could affect resale values. A change in incentives, a radical swing in gas prices, a large earthquake in Fremont, supplier issues, etc. In short, nobody knows what will happen to resale values. Nobody ever does.
Keep in mind, the electric market is currently only a tiny portion of the overall market - but something like 40% of people in a few different surveys say they'll consider an EV for their next car. We're probably approaching a tipping point here.
Also remember, there's likely going to still be a several month waiting list for the 3 throughout 2019.
I could actually see the 3 resulting in a higher resale price for the S, if it sparks more desire/demand for EVs in general while a waiting list remains and Tesla keeps a clear feature separation between the two.
If the 3 does turn into the 20% smaller S for half the money that many folks seem to be hoping for and Tesla somehow ramps production fast enough that there isn't a huge waiting list while the price of oil falls and folks forget about global warming (which just disappeared from the EPA site) then it could have a major negative impact.
Too many variables.
Also remember, there's likely going to still be a several month waiting list for the 3 throughout 2019.
I could actually see the 3 resulting in a higher resale price for the S, if it sparks more desire/demand for EVs in general while a waiting list remains and Tesla keeps a clear feature separation between the two.
If the 3 does turn into the 20% smaller S for half the money that many folks seem to be hoping for and Tesla somehow ramps production fast enough that there isn't a huge waiting list while the price of oil falls and folks forget about global warming (which just disappeared from the EPA site) then it could have a major negative impact.
Too many variables.
Thank you. Part of my motivation for buying a used S as an investment. The other half wants and desires 
it’s an incredible green car and I want to drive it everywhere! My thinking and approach is an in-between step until Model 3 is available. If I buy a 2013 S and drove it for two years, with the intent to sell in late 2018, then I would need to sell if for at least $21k to pay off the loan and break even. (assuming there are no costly repairs) The hope is that a 2013 S will still fetch $30k or higher in late 2018. (with that difference applied to a 3) However, this feels like a stretch seeing a brand new Model 3 starts at $35k. So this brings me back to the rhetorical question: will someone still pay that amount for an S with high miles on it when new M3 with full warranty etc is only a few thousand more? I am thinking out loud at this point. I know this is all speculation with impossible variables to consider, but many of you have great instinct with trends so I really appreciate the feedback.
it’s an incredible green car and I want to drive it everywhere! My thinking and approach is an in-between step until Model 3 is available. If I buy a 2013 S and drove it for two years, with the intent to sell in late 2018, then I would need to sell if for at least $21k to pay off the loan and break even. (assuming there are no costly repairs) The hope is that a 2013 S will still fetch $30k or higher in late 2018. (with that difference applied to a 3) However, this feels like a stretch seeing a brand new Model 3 starts at $35k. So this brings me back to the rhetorical question: will someone still pay that amount for an S with high miles on it when new M3 with full warranty etc is only a few thousand more? I am thinking out loud at this point. I know this is all speculation with impossible variables to consider, but many of you have great instinct with trends so I really appreciate the feedback.Thank you. Part of my motivation for buying a used S as an investment. The other half wants and desires
Well, according to KBB, a 2012 BMW 750Li with a ~$90k MSRP will fetch between $22k and $25k with a private sale today witth 70k miles on it, and a MB S550 4Matic with a ~$98k MSRP will fetch between $27k and $31k with 70kmiles. I think $30k for the S then is plausible, what with OTA updates and unlimited battery warranties and the Model 3 waiting list.
ZAKEEUS
Member
A 2013 Model S will be worthless in 2019. Didn't you hear about all the Tesla Killers coming in 2020. Some will have up to 300 miles of range!
A 2013 Model S will be worthless in 2019. Didn't you hear about all the Tesla Killers coming in 2020. Some will have up to 300 miles of range!
But that's 2020 - that's why the OP and the rest of us have to sell in 2019.
Yikes! No, can you expand on this?A 2013 Model S will be worthless in 2019. Didn't you hear about all the Tesla Killers coming in 2020. Some will have up to 300 miles of range!
Last year and this year, five Audis, a Jaguar, Faraday Future and Lucid Air and I think a couple others were promised "for 2020."
In my opinion, that's just companies floating concept cars and making pie in the sky promises to avoid admitting that Tesla is stealing all of their lunches and laughing all the way to the bank while they have no realistic plans to compete. Zak likely thinks similarly, given the emoticon.
do you really think that is so?
my view is based on the reality today is that ALL the other manufacturers sell cars at many price points .
the lower end cars do not hurt the sales of the higher end cars, for example MB maintains the 6 figure prices of the S class while the also offer a C class can be had for $40k, BMW sell 7 series when 1 series can be had for a fraction of the price. Even Buicks and Fords are priced at various price points.
I do believe that many people will buy the model 3, and that will put a small dent into model S sales but I do not believe that the model S prices will collapse because of the 3 being available. there are people who are willing to pay more for the higher end cars and the onus is now on tesla to make the S class more worthy of it's lofty price point.
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down the road all of these teslas will be functionally obsolete as technologies of the batteries, FSD evolve. just like the cars of the 60-70s seem crude to what can be bought now.A 2013 Model S will be worthless in 2019. Didn't you hear about all the Tesla Killers coming in 2020. Some will have up to 300 miles of range!
eye.surgeon
Active Member
Some of those crude 60s-70s cars are worth more now than their original purchase price.
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