Reservation Cancellation Rate

[luvb2b]

someone mentioned that there is a discussion on the yahoo boards that says my sales are too high and cancels too low. below i showed it with dropping sales 5-15% and increasing cancellations by 10-20%. actually this works out well for tesla in terms of giving them a longer backlog. you'd have to drop new reservations by almost 600 per quarter to reach the ending reservation count i was at in the last post.

i mentioned before you can just plug in your own numbers and come to your own conclusions.

i find that generally speaking elon's statement holds pretty much no matter what numbers are used: reservations should soon sell out production for the rest of the year, and the important thing is building out the sales channel to generate 6000+ units of reservations in 2014q1 and beyond.

	Prior Count	Plus New	Minus Sold	Minus Cancels	Equals End Count
2012Q3	11500	2900	250	950	13200
2012Q4	13200	6000	2400	1800	15000
2013Q1	15000	3500	5200	2500	10800
2013Q2	10800	4000	5200	1800	7800
2013Q3	7800	4500	5200	1400	5700
2013Q4	5700	5000	5200	1400	4100

 

[caddieo]

It may be due to changes in build order. I for one postponed my finalization/build order (reservation # 16,227) from mid-February to mid-May in order to get delivery by July. Had I said "go" when asked, delivery would occur in late April or mid-May while I am abroad. I could not get them to do the build early but delay the delivery.