Reservation number

[jamessmooth007]

It's far fetch however, many of the first youtubers were putting on 10+ reservation.

If you are thinking of a purchase, I would recommend getting in line now. I think once it comes out, there will be many more lining up to make the purchase.

This. Don't wait another day. It's $100 that's fully refundable. Very little risk.

 

[Berbinator]

I'm in at about 65k with the Tri-motor. Hopefully, my daily 85' Bimmer holds up! If not I'll take the wife's X,

 

[digitalboi]

{edited as I found the dates orders entered}

The RN numbers go across all Tesla's it appears or at least Model Y and S. I had a Model Y in late November and then same day but shortly after I ordered a MS PLaid. The MS plaid was around 400 higher in the RN number. Both started with 11424xxx

Yes, its been well documented on other forums and trackers that the reservation numbers are sequential amongst ALL Tesla products including energy. So the RN numbers increase very rapidly and you can not equate your RN for CT as your place in line for all CT orders

 

[wycolo]

I paid $100.00 on 1/31/2020. Any guess where that puts me?
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[wycolo]

I paid $100.00 on 1/31/2020. Any guess where that puts me?
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So, better than the Res# might be your bank receipt for the $100.00 from Tesla on xx_date since when would you ever be paying TM exactly $100.00 with no local tax etc. Reason I'm here with this is that my Cybertruck receipt is NOT on my TM webpage (should it be??).

I'm already towing junkers to the scrapyard with my goosenecked Cybertruck *in my dreamz*.
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[digitalboi]

So, better than the Res# might be your bank receipt for the $100.00 from Tesla on xx_date since when would you ever be paying TM exactly $100.00 with no local tax etc. Reason I'm here with this is that my Cybertruck receipt is NOT on my TM webpage (should it be??).

I'm already towing junkers to the scrapyard with my goosenecked Cybertruck *in my dreamz*.
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I dont have a receipt for any of my (pre)orders in my account... I do have emails from when I placed the order of course.

Have you entered your info into the tracker to see where you land?

 

[ctruckforever]

If that's the way to figure your place, I'm around number 400K so I hope my old Dodge won't get finnicky and cause me more issues.

 

[tedbmoss]

This. You are exactly right and there is no line or reservation order of precedence. There is only what is ever best for Tesla and if that happens to line up with your parameters (Location/Location/Location, Build, Price, .... big distance taken up by bureaucracy/a less than optimal IT paradigm/chaos... then some more distance.... and very distantly last... Previous Buyer, Reservation Number) then you get lucky/validated (if that matters). If not, then you don't and you won't know why.

I've gone on the record plenty: there is no line, there is no order of precedence that is known to anyone outside of Tesla, and there is NO WAY they have this many reservations/NO WAY they do not, in fact, know how many reservations they actually have. And that doesn't even begin to discuss all the multiple orders, punters who will never proceed and get their USD 100 back, and all those many that want to but will just not be able to swing it.

S

Well if you can't swing it why put in a reservation? Unless you are going to sell it to someone else?

 

[empiredown]

Well if you can't swing it why put in a reservation? Unless you are going to sell it to someone else?

Because people are weird. They find all sorts of satisfaction in the strangest ways. Being on a list, to say they are on a list, even though they have no inclination to do anything other than get their USD 100 back before they sign on the dotted line and park THAT thing in their driveway being just one of them. Then there are the non business/ fleet multiple orders. Who needs one CT, let alone two... or ten.
People bail on reservations all the time. Even on ones that cost nothing, let alone USD 100 before 30/40/60k ones...

ẞ

 

[Lephturn]

Ive been debating putting in a reservation, but for them to make 1.7m CT's will be 4+ years out....

Remember those numbers are, we think, for all Tesla reservations, and in addition to that this is $100 not $5k. That means the number that will drop out at crunch time will be significant.

 

[Lephturn]

I calculate mine to be 577,378 - but I am in Canada anyway so chances are I'll be in the first year after the first one arrives in Canada. Dual motor AWD, not tri-motor, but I suspect that will be the first one they produce, not the tri-motor.

 

[HellsKitchen]

Just used the spreadsheet and I see my delivery for the DM is estimated to be 3/2024. I may order a Y.

 

[slvervper99]

So, I am back, sort of. I cancelled my Model Y reservation due to unforeseen circumstances...well, mainly because we totaled our other car and had to buy a new one quick and was unable to wait the remaining 2 month time frame on my delivery date. So today, I ordered the Cybertruck....can someone tell me where I am at as far as the line up goes. Here's my RN # 115800830. Thank you very much. I understand that they have over 1 mil reservations but obviously, not all those will take delivery or may cancel their order. My guess is my delivery date won't probably be until mid 2024 which I really don't mind waiting.

 

[Pyre]

So, I am back, sort of. I cancelled my Model Y reservation due to unforeseen circumstances...well, mainly because we totaled our other car and had to buy a new one quick and was unable to wait the remaining 2 month time frame on my delivery date. So today, I ordered the Cybertruck....can someone tell me where I am at as far as the line up goes. Here's my RN # 115800830. Thank you very much. I understand that they have over 1 mil reservations but obviously, not all those will take delivery or may cancel their order. My guess is my delivery date won't probably be until mid 2024 which I really don't mind waiting.

I put in my order maybe two weeks ago for cybertruck dual motor with FSD. I think we are maybe 4 years out from delivery for dual motors if ordered recently... that is assuming 2023 is 50k deliverys, 2024 is 150k-200k deliveries and 2025 is 200k-250k deliveries.
Complete guess though.

 

[Ogre]

So, I am back, sort of. I cancelled my Model Y reservation due to unforeseen circumstances...well, mainly because we totaled our other car and had to buy a new one quick and was unable to wait the remaining 2 month time frame on my delivery date. So today, I ordered the Cybertruck....can someone tell me where I am at as far as the line up goes. Here's my RN # 115800830. Thank you very much. I understand that they have over 1 mil reservations but obviously, not all those will take delivery or may cancel their order. My guess is my delivery date won't probably be until mid 2024 which I really don't mind waiting.

If you ordered today, you likely have 3+ years to wait (seems like everyone is waiting 3+ years one way or the other).

My WAG is Tesla will deliver somewhere between 60-100k Cybertrucks in the first year of production, and 250k+ each year after that. So if they start production in late 2022, by mid 2024, they will likely only have about half a million produced.

It’s possible they will push production numbers higher than 250k/ year, they certainly have a big enough facility for a lot more than that, but getting a million trucks out the door 2.5 years after production starts is a tall order.

Edit: Replied before reading the above by @Pyre and seems like I’m a bit more optimistic, but in the same ballpark. The big wildcard is the possibility Tesla will crank up production even more than 250k/ year. Given the size of the backlog, seems like something they might consider. Particularly if demand keeps steady after launch.

 

[slvervper99]

If you ordered today, you likely have 3+ years to wait (seems like everyone is waiting 3+ years one way or the other).

My WAG is Tesla will deliver somewhere between 60-100k Cybertrucks in the first year of production, and 250k+ each year after that. So if they start production in late 2022, by mid 2024, they will likely only have about half a million produced.

It’s possible they will push production numbers higher than 250k/ year, they certainly have a big enough facility for a lot more than that, but getting a million trucks out the door 2.5 years after production starts is a tall order.

Edit: Replied before reading the above by @Pyre and seems like I’m a bit more optimistic, but in the same ballpark. The big wildcard is the possibility Tesla will crank up production even more than 250k/ year. Given the size of the backlog, seems like something they might consider. Particularly if demand keeps steady after launch.

I guess my estimation was a bit off, I forgot that they won't even have full production volume until 2023. Assuming that they produce 200K vehicles on the first year (2023) and another 350K on the second year (2024), by the time they get to their millionth CT, it will be about 3 1/2 to 4 years (2026....whoa). At this point, maybe I'll add FSD...maybe.

 

[Battouttahe77]

Reservation #RN115801361 Tri-Motor. I hope they call it the Plaid version.

 

[Lephturn]

I guess my estimation was a bit off, I forgot that they won't even have full production volume until 2023. Assuming that they produce 200K vehicles on the first year (2023) and another 350K on the second year (2024), by the time they get to their millionth CT, it will be about 3 1/2 to 4 years (2026....whoa). At this point, maybe I'll add FSD...maybe.

How much pre-order fall-off are you building into your model? The $ to pre-order a Cybertruck is so small that I suspect the % of pre orders that actually take delivery will be much lower than with the Model Y pre orders. Add to that the very long delay and that may further reduce the % of pre-orders that actually take delivery. I think 50% actually taking delivery is generous. Is there any information about what % of Model Y preorders took delivery vs cancelled or changed to another model? I ordered a Y within 10 minutes of it being possible to do so - but in the end I had circumstances change and I cancelled it and 6 months later bought a Model 3 instead.

 

[Ogre]

How much pre-order fall-off are you building into your model? The $ to pre-order a Cybertruck is so small that I suspect the % of pre orders that actually take delivery will be much lower than with the Model Y pre orders. Add to that the very long delay and that may further reduce the % of pre-orders that actually take delivery. I think 50% actually taking delivery is generous. Is there any information about what % of Model Y preorders took delivery vs cancelled or changed to another model? I ordered a Y within 10 minutes of it being possible to do so - but in the end I had circumstances change and I cancelled it and 6 months later bought a Model 3 instead.

The fact that this will be super-flippable will counter that quite a bit. Even if you have second thoughts about buying a giant truck for $70k, the knowledge that you can turn around and sell it for $75-80k+ makes it a lot more palatable.

Take rate ultimately hinges on like-ability of the truck. If early buyers love the truck demand will grow and the take rate will stay high. If it’s a bit of a disappointment, then the reverse will happen. If Tesla delivers anything near what they promised, take rate will not be an issue at all.

 

[slvervper99]

How much pre-order fall-off are you building into your model? The $ to pre-order a Cybertruck is so small that I suspect the % of pre orders that actually take delivery will be much lower than with the Model Y pre orders. Add to that the very long delay and that may further reduce the % of pre-orders that actually take delivery. I think 50% actually taking delivery is generous. Is there any information about what % of Model Y preorders took delivery vs cancelled or changed to another model? I ordered a Y within 10 minutes of it being possible to do so - but in the end I had circumstances change and I cancelled it and 6 months later bought a Model 3 instead.

At this point I don't know the actual percentage of people who pre-ordered and actually took delivery. I ordered mine with just the dual motor. Currently the website don't even have the prices anymore which leads me to believe that they will be changing the prices when it comes closer to when you can configure the truck -which is basically probably around Oct-Nov 2022 since Tesla said that the vehicle configuration will be available late 2022. My other guess is that they will probably bump the price by 2-3k and may not even offer the single motor like what they did with the Model Y. It's Tesla, who knows what they'll do. If I wait and purchase a Model Y in 3 years, I don't know if it will be worth paying 57 or 58K because at the actual current price without the "potential savings" is now at 54,990 for the long range. Just have to wait and see; they are rethinking the price of the truck. They maybe pricing between the Rivian and the Endurance.