Residual value in 10 years speculation

[insaneoctane]

Join me on a quick journey into the future 10 years....
What do you speculate the future value of the 2 models of the M3 will be worth for private party resale? Let's not make this a negative thread about how most other cars sold today don't even have AP, but rather stick to the question at hand... If you can't make the leap of prediction /assumptions necessary for this exercise, you can just read others thoughts

Assumptions:
Compare 2 identically configured model 3s, only difference is battery pack ($9k difference between configs)...

Initially,
Configuration A: base battery, 220 miles range, $5K premium pkg, $5K autopilot
Configuration B: long range battery, 315 miles range, $5K premium pkg, $5K autopilot

Fast forward 10 years....

• Cars have 200k miles on them (I drive 20K/yr)
• Range has decreased by 10% (1%/year, A=200 B=280)
• Cars are garage kept and in good condition
• EVs are now far more common
• AP vehicles are now far more common and advanced
• Model 3 in future has many new improvements
• EV ranges are now significantly higher
• Charging standards have significantly improved
• Etc

What is the future resale value between configuration A and B now?

 

[harry]

I would expect very little difference in resale in 10 years. That's like a geologic age in the transformation which is occurring. Not only would either range seem very low, but the charging systems would have advanced beyond anything today's car could take advantage of. In today's dollars I would expect resale below 10% of original price, regardless of which (at that time, "tiny") battery they had.

As just a couple of data points, we have two Model S Signatures (5 years old now), with about 100K miles on each. I would be overjoyed to get 40% of their original retail if we sold.

All just speculation, of course.

 

[mynameisjim]

I think standard will be worth around $8,000 and long range about $9,500.

 

[JeffK]

It depends... if after a few years autonomous cars are on the streets and you can call up a ride from anywhere within 5 minutes. The value of owning a car will decrease.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

Answer: How much is a Gen1 iPhone now? if you can find one......

 

[SageBrush]

I'll go out on a limb and say less than you paid.

 

[alseTrick]

A 10 year old car with 200k miles? Yea, we're talking ~$5k.

 

[neroden]

Join me on a quick journey into the future 10 years....
What do you speculate the future value of the 2 models of the M3 will be worth for private party resale?

In 10 years, Model 3 will depreciate exactly the way gasoline cars traditionally depreciated.

(However, gasoline cars will depreciate much, much faster. So.)

 

[Johann Koeber]

The M3 (as any Tesla) should hold up pretty well.

The most expensive part which wears out is the battery. In 10 years it should be cheap to swap to the newest and greatest battery. The motors do not degrade or wear out much.

So it boils down to the interior and how well that is taken care of. And whether the main computer and display will be upgradable.

I like to compare it to aircraft where age is measured not in years but in decades.

 

[eloder]

The M3 (as any Tesla) should hold up pretty well.

The most expensive part which wears out is the battery. In 10 years it should be cheap to swap to the newest and greatest battery. The motors do not degrade or wear out much.

So it boils down to the interior and how well that is taken care of. And whether the main computer and display will be upgradable.

I like to compare it to aircraft where age is measured not in years but in decades.

I agree, I think it'll hold up pretty decently as well. The display and AP (computer/process) components will probably be the biggest point of failure on such a simple car, and even that looks like it's pretty easy to upgrade.

Plus I imagine there will be a bottom value where it'll still be viable, due to the Tesla network. If an old car can net $50 a day after additional maintenance/repairs, it will drive used values up higher than they normally would be. An old, degraded battery can still act as an urban Uber without any difficulty at all.