Retrofit Autopilot 2.0 Hardware Possibility?

[byan1232]

Hey guys,

So I was in the design studio and it says we can add:
1. Enhanced Autopilot for $6,000 after delivery
2. Full Self-Driving Capability for $4,000 after delivery

Do you guys think it will be for any Tesla that currently has Autopilot?

 

[outie]

No, he already said it's not possible for AP1 cars in the call. Those costs are for cars produced as of today (software activation).

 

[Sir Guacamolaf]

Is there a video or something of this announcement?

 

[HumanGenome]

This forum needs some more active moderators to clear up the reposts.

 

[int29h]

Is there a video or something of this announcement?

 

[boonedocks]

Bets that wk057 will have one retrofited and out in a few weeks. :/

 

[bob_p]

AP 1.0 owners have the same upgrade path as pre-AP owners - trade-in/sell your old Tesla and buy a new one...

Since it may take a year or longer before AP 2.0 actually does more than AP 1.0, there may not be great urgency to do that, and by waiting another 1 to 2 years to do the "upgrade", there will likely be even more improvements that might be of interest (battery packs, charging, ...).

 

[eddiemac]

My vehicle is 1 year old and I typically hold for 3 years. I'll bet that a new S won't be able to do everything in the video before I'm ready to sell.

 

[HumanGenome]

My vehicle is 1 year old and I typically hold for 3 years. I'll bet that a new S won't be able to do everything in the video before I'm ready to sell.

So you are betting that within 2 years Tesla will not be able to increase Autopilot related capabilities over AP 1.0?

I'll take that bet, 10 to 1 odds even to sweeten the deal.

 

[Jhall118]

I find it a little silly that wk057 can retrofit a P85 with autopilot for $9,000 worth of parts, and 50 hours of labor, but Tesla can't figure out a way to retrofit at a "reasonable" cost.

I own a 2015 P85D. I wouldn't need a new bumper, steering column, or brakes. All the holes are there for the ultrasonic sensors.

I paid 117k for my car. To get a P90D with similar options (plus new autopilot) is 131k. That's a difference of 14k, not even mentioning the depreciation hit I would take. Tesla could grandfather the software in for a lower cost to make it reasonable.

I am happy with the car, but Tesla hasn't even delivered what was promised with the current hardware yet (stopping at traffic lights and stop signs).

There isn't a huge rush. But maybe there is a business opportunity for a third party to come in. Or at least Tesla could allow those of us with a know how the ability to do it without having to hack for the software.

 

[MP3Mike]

I find it a little silly that wk057 can retrofit a P85 with autopilot for $9,000 worth of parts, and 50 hours of labor, but Tesla can't figure out a way to retrofit at a "reasonable" cost.

So figure it would cost ~$20,000 to do what wk057 did if you were paying shop rates for the labor?

There is a lot of tearing apart you would have to do to get the additional wiring harnesses in, replace the B pillars and windshield, the new AP GPU is probably liquid cooled so you would have to retrofit the cooling system, it is possible the front fenders are redesigned to fit the new rear facing side cameras, etc... I think this retrofit would be even worse than the one wk057 did.

Would the new longer range ultrasonic sensors fit in the same holes or would it require both bumper covers to be replaced and repainted?

 

[Jhall118]

So figure it would cost ~$20,000 to do what wk057 did if you were paying shop rates for the labor?

There is a lot of tearing apart you would have to do to get the additional wiring harnesses in, replace the B pillars and windshield, the new AP GPU is probably liquid cooled so you would have to retrofit the cooling system, it is possible the front fenders are redesigned to fit the new rear facing side cameras, etc... I think this retrofit would be even worse than the one wk057 did.

Would the new longer range ultrasonic sensors fit in the same holes or would it require both bumper covers to be replaced and repainted?

I am assuming the new ultrasonics will fit in the same hole, and that the people who built the car could do it in fewer hours than a hobbyist on a one-off project. Everything else you are talking about: adding to the wiring hardness, replacing B pillars and windshield, adding a liquid cooled GPU (you seriously think that is expensive?) isn't that expensive.

20k would be a little high, but I would pay 15k. Honestly, I feel like in two years, when level 4-5 autonomy is possible software wise, it really shouldn't cost 15k in hardware to install a system separately from the car. That's half the price of a model 3.

The more people with the hardware capable of autonomous driving, the sooner regulators will approve it, and the safer it is.

 

[robby]

So figure it would cost ~$20,000 to do what wk057 did if you were paying shop rates for the labor?

There is a lot of tearing apart you would have to do to get the additional wiring harnesses in, replace the B pillars and windshield, the new AP GPU is probably liquid cooled so you would have to retrofit the cooling system, it is possible the front fenders are redesigned to fit the new rear facing side cameras, etc... I think this retrofit would be even worse than the one wk057 did.

Would the new longer range ultrasonic sensors fit in the same holes or would it require both bumper covers to be replaced and repainted?

I'd happily upgrade for $20k. My 85D is 18 months old but my "upgrade" cost after depreciation, sales tax and excise tax reset would be north of $40k, not to mention the hassle of selling and financing again. Elon's statement about upgrade economics doesn't make sense when you account for those kinds of costs, or at least, I lack the imagination to see how it does. I think Tesla is hugely underestimating what people like me would pay for an upgrade path.

 

[HumanGenome]

It is not about the money but their time spent on catering to a retrofit.

 

[bob_p]

There are a number of factors that work against doing retrofits like this.

Cars depreciate in value - assuming the average Tesla sells for $100K and depreciates about 25% per year, then the average value of Model S cars with AP 1.0 would be around $75K. And for pre-AP cars, the average value is around $50K.

On a brand new car, AP 2.0 costs $8K from the factory - and that's to have it installed in parts designed to accommodate the wiring and sensors. Plus the labor for installing all of these sensors and wiring will likely require disassembling most of the car - and buying some new body parts. Let's say the retrofit can be done for $25K (and possibly more for pre-AP cars).

And if the retrofit is done, would that add value to the resale? You've added a large investment on an older car, with features that can be purchased for significantly less on newer cars. At best you might see an $8K increase in value (the cost of AP 2.0 on a new car), and are more likely to see a lower increase, if any. There's even a possibility the retrofit might hurt resale, because it required disassembling most of the car.

The alternative to doing a retrofit is selling the old car and buying a new one - and because there are other improvements being made to the cars, that may be the better solution in most cases (especially when there are other major features being added, such as a larger battery pack).

 

[byan1232]

I'd happily upgrade for $20k. My 85D is 18 months old but my "upgrade" cost after depreciation, sales tax and excise tax reset would be north of $40k, not to mention the hassle of selling and financing again. Elon's statement about upgrade economics doesn't make sense when you account for those kinds of costs, or at least, I lack the imagination to see how it does. I think Tesla is hugely underestimating what people like me would pay for an upgrade path.

Your upgrade cost is only 40k? I asked for a trade in value for my 2016 pre refresh 90D (delivery in March 2016) 90D (16k miles) they said 68k. Which means my upgrade would cost about the same as ur 85

 

[robby]

Your upgrade cost is only 40k? I asked for a trade in value for my 2016 pre refresh 90D (delivery in March 2016) 90D (16k miles) they said 68k. Which means my upgrade would cost about the same as ur 85

I was going on private sale $75k, based on seeing non-AP P85+ in the $75-80k range.

 

[Jhall118]

Yeah... the hardware costs nowhere near 8k. In fact, it's likely cheaper for them to just give everyone the hardware for free than retool... which is exactly what they're doing.

It's probably like 2k in hardware.

 

[DSB87]

I received my Tesla S 90D two months ago and I was very happy with it until this week. I am very disappointed that Tesla didn't give me any warning that the new car they built for me was about to quickly become the "old" technology. I feel like I bought a new car and got last years model. I hate the thought that everything exciting about Autopilot that I'll be reading about in the next few years will be based on technology that I missed out on by 2 months. After reading these forums I realized that I should have researched Autopilot further before I ordered so that I could have found about this major technology change that was coming soon. That way I could have waited to place my order instead of being furious with Tesla. This was my first Tesla and it will be my last.

 

[eddiemac]

So you are betting that within 2 years Tesla will not be able to increase Autopilot related capabilities over AP 1.0?

I'll take that bet, 10 to 1 odds even to sweeten the deal.

I said "everything in that video" not "anything".