In a Sept 14 tweet Elon says commenting on the failed landing video, "Long road to reusabity of Falcon 9 primary boost stage…When upper stage & fairing also reusable, costs will drop by a factor >100."
The first stage is now reusable and customers agreeing to use a 'flight tested' booster may be getting some launch discount. I probably missed seeing some info about size of discount, but I have a vague memory it might be 10% (likely varies between customers as well).
I'm guessing (and happy to be corrected) the F9 launch hardware costs breakdown to something like 70% first stage, 20% second, 10% faring. If 70% of reusability is close (with block 5) to accomplished, and cost reductions projected out a few years are perhaps reducing cost by 50%, how will making the second stage and faring also reusable going to drop costs by a factor of >100?
Should this cost prediction be regarded as exaggeration, hyperbole or baloney?
My guess is his reasoning might have been to fully extend his air travel cost analogy to rocket launches. I.e. If all the hardware can some day be reused hundreds of times (akin to a jet aircraft being flown weekly for twenty years before replacement) then costs could drop by such a dramatic factor. That seems far fetched for many decades, perhaps longer unless some type of anti-gravity engine is invented.
Needless to say, all of the advances and accomplishments to date by SpaceX entitle its founder to occasionally exaggerate broadly for effect to make a point.
The first stage is now reusable and customers agreeing to use a 'flight tested' booster may be getting some launch discount. I probably missed seeing some info about size of discount, but I have a vague memory it might be 10% (likely varies between customers as well).
I'm guessing (and happy to be corrected) the F9 launch hardware costs breakdown to something like 70% first stage, 20% second, 10% faring. If 70% of reusability is close (with block 5) to accomplished, and cost reductions projected out a few years are perhaps reducing cost by 50%, how will making the second stage and faring also reusable going to drop costs by a factor of >100?
Should this cost prediction be regarded as exaggeration, hyperbole or baloney?
My guess is his reasoning might have been to fully extend his air travel cost analogy to rocket launches. I.e. If all the hardware can some day be reused hundreds of times (akin to a jet aircraft being flown weekly for twenty years before replacement) then costs could drop by such a dramatic factor. That seems far fetched for many decades, perhaps longer unless some type of anti-gravity engine is invented.
Needless to say, all of the advances and accomplishments to date by SpaceX entitle its founder to occasionally exaggerate broadly for effect to make a point.