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Review of solutions to energy problems

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An excellent book (free on line) is Sustainable Energy Without all the Hot Air. It goes through 5 scenarios on how to achieve energy sustainability and independence. It also includes discussions on costs. He begins with a frank discussion on the whys and the large challenges that lay ahead. He is also very pro EV.
 
For some reason I find the conversion of grass to ethanol in 1 hr a little fast. Fermentation takes a relatively long time (>> 1 hr), they could have some proprietary reaction/super microbe or a huge reactor. Normally it's gasification followed by microbial conversion, but its still alot of time. it's great if it works, that would decrease my carbon footprint to my property.
 
I watched BBC Two - Horizon, 2008-2009, Can We Make a Star on Earth? again yesterday.

A very good programme but also scary as it contained this:

Today’s Energy Use
Average American usage = 11.4 KW
Global Average usage = 2.2 KW
Current Total World usage annual = 13 TW

Tomorrow’s Energy Use

This scenario assumes that each person gets 5 KW by 2035, which places every
person at a modern standard of living. The total world energy use would be 30 TW.
This scenario excludes fossil fuels because more fossil fuel usage will cause harm to
the environment and humanity. To achieve this, industrialized countries use less, while
developing countries increase their power consumption.


Talking Points

• Fusion power is the ideal energy
source. It is practically abundant, it is
environmentally friendly, and it produces
enormous amounts of energy.
• Fusion power has grown faster than
the semiconductor industry.
• Even with a concentrated effort to
produce carbon free energy, it may
not meet the future energy demand.

This is what is needed:

Nuclear: 5 TW
We need to install 2.5 reactors every week for the next 25 years to
build 5000 reactors.

Wind: 5 TW
We must install full size 3 MW turbines every 3 minutes for the next
25 years, taking up about 2 percent of the land on Earth.

Solar: 10 TW
We must install 250 sq. m. of solar cells every second for the next 25
years.

Biofuels: 2 TW
We need to produce 4 Olympic swimming pools’ worth of genetically
engineered algae every second for the next 25 years.


You may be able to watch this show from outside the UK using DaveProxy - Your Free Web Proxy / UK Based Proxy Server
 
I watched BBC Two - Horizon, 2008-2009, Can We Make a Star on Earth? again yesterday.

A very good programme but also scary as it contained this analysis:

Today’s Energy Use
Average American usage = 11.4 KW
Global Average usage = 2.2 KW
Current Total World usage annual = 13 TW

Tomorrow’s Energy Use

This scenario assumes that each person gets 5 KW by 2035, which places every
person at a modern standard of living. The total world energy use would be 30 TW.
This scenario excludes fossil fuels because more fossil fuel usage will cause harm to
the environment and humanity. To achieve this, industrialized countries use less, while
developing countries increase their power consumption.


This is what is needed:

Nuclear: 5 TW
We need to install 2.5 reactors every week for the next 25 years to
build 5000 reactors.

Wind: 5 TW
We must install full size 3 MW turbines every 3 minutes for the next
25 years, taking up about 2 percent of the land on Earth.

Solar: 10 TW
We must install 250 sq. m. of solar cells every second for the next 25
years.

Biofuels: 2 TW
We need to produce 4 Olympic swimming pools’ worth of genetically
engineered algae every second for the next 25 years.


You may be able to watch this show from outside the UK using DaveProxy - Your Free Web Proxy / UK Based Proxy Server
 
I am extremely puzzled by the units in the BBC talking points. All the units of consumption are expressed in power (kW, TW), not energy (kWh, TWh) -- no one in the industry thinks that way. Then they shift from talking about consumption to productive capacity, but appear to map these one-to-one. Productive capacity typically is measured in power (TW), so this is fine, but 1 TW of nukes makes a lot more energy than 1 TW of wind; the net capacity factor of nukes is about 90% in the US, compared to 35% or so for wind. So, in round numbers, to get the same amount of energy, you'll have to install three times as many wind turbines (by nameplate rating). Solar has an even lower net capacity factor -- starting as it does from the obvious truth that its annual capacity factor simply cannot be above 50% (unless you put the facility into orbit, which has been discussed).

Another inconvenient truth is that fusion will not be the solution for all these TW. Even if there is a viable fusion design by 2035, the demand is growing year to year. We're going to have to rely on known technologies, or more rapidly developed and deployed technologies, to carry us through the next two decades.
 
It started from the statement that your average power use is 11kW (24/7).

Yes they go on to talk about population growth. Which just makes the problem even more scary.


That is ridiculous.
My house uses about 30kWh per day.
My car uses 8kWh per day
Call the computers and lights and hvac at my workplace 30kWh each day.
My wifes car uses about 1/2 gallon of gas per day = equivalent to about 17kWh
We're up to 85 kWh per day, divide by 4 people in my family, and its less than 1 kWh per hour.

If we use $100 worth of consumables every day, and it was all energy at 10c per kWh, thats 1000kWh
, or 42 kWh per hour, or about 10.5kW per person.
If thats where that comes from, then the answer is clear. It is not more energy, it is less consumption.
Our western society with its "modern standard of living" is based upon disposable non-reusable junk.
My family doesn't need to consume 1000kWh worth of disposable junk every day.
 
Our western society with its "modern standard of living"

Speak for yourself! List of countries by energy consumption per capita - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

22px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png
Canada
11055.0
22px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png
United States
10381.2
 

Remember, these numbers allocate to individuals consumption by companies, government, etc., so you can't directly compare your electric bill to these numbers.

The figures quoted above underscore a fallacy in the BBC assumptions -- they assume that the average electricity consumption in the world rises by 2035 to equal the consumption in the UK today. How likely do you think that is?

On the other hand, I still maintain that they've done their sums very poorly. Daily average consumption doesn't tell you a great deal about how many power plants you need to build; to determine that, you need to know the peak load (after demand-side management), the reliability of the generating and transmission gear, and the target reliability, all of which goes into computing the installed capacity reserve requirement. If the average daily consumption is 10.4 kW, the typical load factor (the ratio of average load to peak load) is about 55%, so you your contribution to peak consumption is about 18.9 kW on average. The typical reserve margin requirement is 115% of peak, so we're up to needing 21.7 kW of generation per person in the US -- nearly double the average load. Thus, the BBC has understated the severity of the problem by a factor of two.

Furthermore, the BBC assumes that the power plants on the ground today will still be operating in 2035. That's very unlikely; the typical economic lifetime of non-hydro renewables and gas-fired generation is about 20 to 25 years, so to a good first approximation, all of the existing assets in those categories will be need to be replaced by 2035. Likewise, all coal plants (at least in North American and Europe) will have been retired, and all the currently operating nukes.

There is a very, very large market for power generation in the future!
 
Since the terms power, kW, and kWh usually refer to electricity, the above can easily be confused with consumption of electricity. However that is only about 40 kWh (per day per capita) in the US, and about 20 kWh (per day per capita) in the UK. Or, if the consumption was continuous over 24h, it would be about 1.7 kW and 0.8 kW per capita.

Electric energy consumption - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
It seems that documentary video server is blocked now. Maybe I misunderstand this, but if the average energy consumption in the US is about 10 kW, that would be 240 kWh per day. And if 40 kWh of that is electricity, then non-electricity is 200 kWh, and much of that would be direct fossil fuel usage. Is the idea to replace all of it with electricity? Probably that wouldn't require the same amount of energy since the high inefficiency of fossil fuel usage occurs after measuring the amount of energy, whereas with electricity the inefficiency is (usually) before the amount is measured. So replacing 1 kWh of fossil fuel usage with electricity only requires maybe 0.2 - 0.4 kWh ?

In any case, the numbers above don't seem to give a clear picture.
 
Not sure how useful that is. Canada has immense resource extraction industries. I'm sure your average Canadian isn't consuming all that energy him/herself. Perhaps that energy should be allocated to the consumers of the products. (Mind you we all need a lot more heating energy than most people.)

Canadian oil production is about 3.3 million barrels per day. The tar sands is about half of that.
At 1.65 million barrels of oil per day, the tar sands extraction process consumes around 2.4 billion cu feet of natural gas per day.
( Using the low value of 1470 cu feet NG per barrel - from wikipedia, it could be 2000 cu feet instead )
That 2.4 billion cu feet is 0.74 billion kWh, or 21.6 kWh per canadian. Over a 24 hour day thats 900 watts of the 11055 total.
( This is just the tar sands remember! )

Note that if that natural gas was used to create electricity instead in a modern NG plant ( at 6333 btu per kWh ) the natural gas required to extract 1 barrel of oil could create 232 kWh of electricity.
That electricity could drive an EV about 930 miles.
Before you even refine the barrel of oil or burn it, the EV is ahead economically and envirionmentally.
 
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