Revisting: Model 3 impact on Model S resale prices

[PhaseWhite]

I do enjoy seeing all this speculation on the used mS sales market. Waiting for some concrete data tho.

Agree this is an interesting topic. I tried to find some concrete data, I'd bet someone has some history of CPO inventory prices but it's probably not available for free, however you can view history of cars sold on cargurus. In the last 30 days prices are trending up with the biggest % increases in the cheaper end of the market: 2012 Tesla Model S $42,839 +7.16%

This would seem supportive of the hypothesis of folks who were aiming for a Model 3 giving up and buying an S

Tesla Model S Price Trends - CarGurus

*Edit: Regarding CPOs: There's only a single CPO 90D and 100D Model S for sale on the CPO trackers. And both have all options including FSD enabled. Seems to me like Tesla is trying to milk the lack of inventory. The 90D is about 20k more expensive than the inventory one I purchased this year if you factor the Tax Credit or lack of one and this CPO also has about 8k more miles on it than mine did: Model S 90D 5YJSA1E2XHF184558 | Tesla

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

However, it is possible for a state tax incentive that includes used vehicles but I am not aware of any.

I know Colorado had a $5000 tax credit for used EVs. If the car had never been registered in Colorado and never received the tax credit, then it was eligible. They might still have that but I’m too lazy to look it up.

 

[dknisely]

How is the interior definitely superior? Is it just because the door pockets and coat hangers? I prefer the look of my interior, but I haven't sat in a 3 yet.

I prefer the MS exterior too. My 15 year old daughter and I went down to the service center last week and we got to see a bunch of 3s in every color. It's a very nice looking car, but it just doesn't have the wow factor of the S. It's cute. The front reminded my daughter of the New VW Bug. Interesting because Franz helped design the Bug. I think the front looks like a Porsche, for obvious reasons. I thought I was going to like the 3's exterior more than the MS, but so far I don't. Also, seeing the two cars side by side I thought I would definitely prefer to be in the S if I were in a serious car accident. Safety was my #2 reason for buying a Model S.

Obviously a matter of personal taste, but I don't see any manner in which the M3 interior isn't more beautiful, functional, and elegant than the MS. Every dimension is slightly bigger than the MS, despite the smaller package. The exterior is a whole different matter (to my eye)... Not a fan of the blunt nose, which underwhelms compared to a Porsche, and the rear just looks like a compact sedan with a T.

To my eye, the facelift MS exterior is absolutely classic and timeless. Functionally, the interior is adequate. I like the seats and controls. The console sucks totally, along with the inexplicable disappearing space under the armrest. Screen and binnacle are adequate (look great, but performance is meh), but dated now with M3 (esp. from a performance point of view since the MCU is such ancient processing technology).

I'm sure the next interior iteration of the MS will be stunning. But, look, I've already gotten to enjoy my MS for 13 months, so unfair to compare to a late 2018 M3. Would I buy an MS today? No way, given the M3. Am I happy that I did buy an MS in 12/2016? Yes.

Now just make the damn EAP work.

 

[David_Cary]

Great stuff.
Personally have a 2015 75D with 52k miles, 3 year lease up in May. Have been invited to configure my 3. At least in my personal case, the S will likely not enter the used market. If I spring for the 3 (and I am not sure I want to give up D), my wife will get the S (we will buy it out). My residual is about 45k - but I am over mileage and I didn't do service so it will likely cost me a few thousand to turn in.

I will keep it mostly because it has been fantastic from a reliability/repair standpoint. Battery is in good shape (230 range).

I live in a pretty high Tesla penetration area. Saw my first 3 on the road this weekend. There has been a lot of new questions about my car last month or two. The interest has waxed and waned over time but there is definitely a significant uptick with the arrival of the 3 and I would argue that supports the resale values.

 

[Speedr117]

The other thing that's hard to predict is gas prices. If they rise significantly, then demand will go up greatly, and with it, prices for all versions of used Teslas.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Obviously a matter of personal taste, but I don't see any manner in which the M3 interior isn't more beautiful, functional, and elegant than the MS. Every dimension is slightly bigger than the MS, despite the smaller package. The exterior is a whole different matter (to my eye)... Not a fan of the blunt nose, which underwhelms compared to a Porsche, and the rear just looks like a compact sedan with a T.

To my eye, the facelift MS exterior is absolutely classic and timeless. Functionally, the interior is adequate. I like the seats and controls. The console sucks totally, along with the inexplicable disappearing space under the armrest. Screen and binnacle are adequate (look great, but performance is meh), but dated now with M3 (esp. from a performance point of view since the MCU is such ancient processing technology).

I'm sure the next interior iteration of the MS will be stunning. But, look, I've already gotten to enjoy my MS for 13 months, so unfair to compare to a late 2018 M3. Would I buy an MS today? No way, given the M3. Am I happy that I did buy an MS in 12/2016? Yes.

Now just make the damn EAP work.

I would never buy an MS either if the 3 was available, even without all the rave reviews. I'm very frugal and can't really believe I payed $70k for a car. I love the car and I don't have any regrets, but now I'm wondering if I should sell while it's value is still higher than a Model 3. I feel like I should at least take an M3 for a test drive before I take that leap. I really don't have any issues with the S. I am more than happy with it's size, center console, touch screen responsiveness, lack of pockets, acceleration, and nimbleness. I can't wait to experience the 3 and see what all the fuss is about.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Thanks everyone for your thoughts & insights here, much appreciated.

 

[brkaus]

It will plummet when the 8 year warranty runs out.

Most cars have deprecated pretty heavily by 8 years. I’m not sure they would suddenly plummet more at years. Plus, assuming the batteries on average hold up pretty well, there may be an aftermarket for batteries.

A 2010 BMW 535iX has an approx trade in value of $7k (kbb).

The 2012 330ci I sold private partly to buy my S sure wasn’t worth much compared to new price.

Maybe the warranty would minimize the depreciation compared to other cars? Then it falls back in line?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

My car has most the possible square inches of Alcantara, possible. That's got to add at least $10,000. Who needs a glass ceiling when you can have an Alcantara one?

 

[mjmiron]

Morning,
I am a little newer to the Tesla world picked up my Model S 2013 CPO from Tesla in Chicago and drove it back to MN. I had purchased this CPO with 57k, sub zero package, tech package, and glass roof, all in $44k. My initial thought before I bought this used S was to put money down on a 3 but I got tired of waiting. When I was looking last year they had them listed for 35K and up now they seem to be running 50K+. I have entertained selling my car and getting a new Model S 75 but I like where my payment is at now. Is this just trend or do prices go down in the 4th quarter?

Last question when is the right time to sell your used Model S before the price plummets I was going to sell next year when I hit close to 85K and purchase either another used S or new.

 

[JoRey]

I have been checking the price of Model S in socal and the prices for pre-autopilot cars seems to be around 30-40k and early autopilot cars seems to be 40-50k. I expect the prices for early Model s to drop to 20k the end of the year, I have also been seeing Model 3's going for 55,000-60,000 dollars.