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Rivian Deliveries Pushed to 2022



Rivian has started notifying customers that they will need to wait a bit longer to receive their vehicles.

Rivian has sent notifications that lay out delivery windows for the “Launch Edition” that range from March to September. It’s reasonable to assume that the company’s less-pricey “Adventure” and “Explore” packages will also be pushed to the second half of 2022.

While Rivian has started production of its all-electric R1T pickup, few have been delivered. The R1S SUV was expected to go into production next month, but it is not clear if that will be the case.

Rivian currently operates a single factory in Normal, Illinois and is reportedly looking for a second factory location. 

Early reviews of the R1T pickup have been strong. And investors have been supportive, as the company’s recent IPO gave it a market capitalization of $100 billion.

 
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OxBrew

MYLR - Prototype Design/Dev 1996-Pres
Sep 23, 2021
480
838
Spokane WA
I personally think Lucid is far more solid than rivian.

Have it occurred to you why Rivian Mpge is in such a low range?

Why would Ford walk away? It’s not like Ford is front running in EV tech and self driving platform.

Morgan Stanley underwritten the Rivian IPO so it’s going out of its way to pump up rivian.

It’s 2022- why would a vehicle with 400V based architecture would be the future?

Even the Korean is already on 800V on EV6

It’s not that hard to see.
Think whatever you want. I know personally engineers who work and worked at Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.

Tesla is no cake walk, it's a grind working there, and can chew you up. I have no illusions that's it's as successful as it through anything more than just throwing money and people at problems. I'm not some rosy eyed fanboi.

Rivian seems to be taking their time, and doing it right. It's hard, batteries are not getting cheap at the pace anyone wants, but I think they're being honest about everything they're doing.

I'll just say this about Lucid: one of the best MEs I've ever worked with took a job there. Lasted 5 days and noped out. One look inside the kimono and he said lol, no way.

But hey, maybe they all pull it off, IDK. Things change quickly, production ramps happen.

I've been in the battery storage and EV industry long enough to see that there's a lot of fluff. Easy to put together a slick website and look like you have a product, when you're just starting out.

I'm not sure you can call the first 100 or so deliveries of a basically hand made batch of 520 cars "delivering a car."

If they continue to ramp at pace, great. If not, lookout.
 
It's a scam because it is not Tesla. That is how it always ends in talking about a competitor. You should know that by now. ;)
So true.

Even with hard data :) fan boy will always be fan boy.
Think whatever you want. I know personally engineers who work and worked at Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.

Tesla is no cake walk, it's a grind working there, and can chew you up. I have no illusions that's it's as successful as it through anything more than just throwing money and people at problems. I'm not some rosy eyed fanboi.

Rivian seems to be taking their time, and doing it right. It's hard, batteries are not getting cheap at the pace anyone wants, but I think they're being honest about everything they're doing.

I'll just say this about Lucid: one of the best MEs I've ever worked with took a job there. Lasted 5 days and noped out. One look inside the kimono and he said lol, no way.

But hey, maybe they all pull it off, IDK. Things change quickly, production ramps happen.

I've been in the battery storage and EV industry long enough to see that there's a lot of fluff. Easy to put together a slick website and look like you have a product, when you're just starting out.

I'm not sure you can call the first 100 or so deliveries of a basically hand made batch of 520 cars "delivering a car."

If they continue to ramp at pace, great. If not, lookout.
what makes you think you are the only expert here?

Having been now involved in Self driving and actual EV industry for probably way much longer on EE architecture and entire HW/SW stack.

I have never been impressed by what comes out of Tesla younger generation of engineers. Lack of basic understanding of IPC600 and 610. Bad designing habit on most basic routing guidelines.

If you truly have inside knowledge, you would be able to see the actual design gap and issues.

Kimono- why don't you wait until you see tear down on both? Then tell me how much you really understand and comprehend.

Having lived under Apple hockey stick grind, don't get me started on Tesla grind. It would make Tesla looks like a cake walk.
 
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Ogre

Active Member
Sep 6, 2021
1,952
9,691
Oregon
…Rivian seems to be taking their time, and doing it right. It's hard, batteries are not getting cheap at the pace anyone wants, but I think they're being honest about everything they're doing.….

…I'm not sure you can call the first 100 or so deliveries of a basically hand made batch of 520 cars "delivering a car."
This is actually what bugs me about Rivian, they haven’t been particularly honest up to this point. Or at the very least they’ve been very selective with what they release and very generous with their definitions.

They led their customers and investors into believing production was starting in September. The reality was they had a line where they could essentially hand-build a few hundred trucks and it was nowhere near production. It was only after their IPO that they started talking about “Taking their time and getting it right”. Prior to that, they led everyone, media, investors, customers, etc to believe production was starting.

That was a bullshit move.
 
This is actually what bugs me about Rivian, they haven’t been particularly honest up to this point. Or at the very least they’ve been very selective with what they release and very generous with their definitions.

They led their customers and investors into believing production was starting in September. The reality was they had a line where they could essentially hand-build a few hundred trucks and it was nowhere near production. It was only after their IPO that they started talking about “Taking their time and getting it right”. Prior to that, they led everyone, media, investors, customers, etc to believe production was starting.

That was a bullshit move.
To be fair. It's not easy to build a car or truck right off the bat.

Tesla was also hand building cars before.

I wouldn't throw company under the bus for that. I actually think more blame should be placed on financial market.

The main reason that I jumped into this thread is more on how Morgan Stanley is biased because they aren't neutral. Ford walking away from Rivian I don't think it's unknown to Morgan Stanley before IPO. Even just couple days ago- it's still pumping the rivian stock. That is actually more problematic.
 
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OxBrew

MYLR - Prototype Design/Dev 1996-Pres
Sep 23, 2021
480
838
Spokane WA
So true.

Even with hard data :) fan boy will always be fan boy.

what makes you think you are the only expert here?

Having been now involved in Self driving and actual EV industry for probably way much longer on EE architecture and entire HW/SW stack.

I have never been impressed by what comes out of Tesla younger generation of engineers. Lack of basic understanding of IPC600 and 610. Bad designing habit on most basic routing guidelines.

If you truly have inside knowledge, you would be able to see the actual design gap and issues.

Kimono- why don't you wait until you see tear down on both? Then tell me how much you really understand and comprehend.

Having lived under Apple hockey stick grind, don't get me started on Tesla grind. It would make Tesla looks like a cake walk.
We are in agreement.
 

Zorg

Active Member
Oct 24, 2017
2,332
2,223
Fremont, ca
So, ramping up car production is hard. Rivian building a new factory to the tune of $5B is a ballsy move. Committing that much money when production ramp looks iffy at best for the next 2 years... Basically, they're saying that they plan on building 70K trucks/SUV and 40K Amazon vans over the next 2 years. With 10,000 employees, that doesn't seem very fast.
 

Ogre

Active Member
Sep 6, 2021
1,952
9,691
Oregon
So, ramping up car production is hard. Rivian building a new factory to the tune of $5B is a ballsy move. Committing that much money when production ramp looks iffy at best for the next 2 years... Basically, they're saying that they plan on building 70K trucks/SUV and 40K Amazon vans over the next 2 years. With 10,000 employees, that doesn't seem very fast.
Seems lightning fast at their current pace.

They bought the current factory 4 years ago and haven’t figured out how to deliver 500 cars to customers.

Now they think they can ramp up two factories at the same time and get one of them producing 70,000 cars a year in 2 years? This seems like an unwise way to spend $5b.
 

Zorg

Active Member
Oct 24, 2017
2,332
2,223
Fremont, ca
Seems lightning fast at their current pace.

They bought the current factory 4 years ago and haven’t figured out how to deliver 500 cars to customers.

Now they think they can ramp up two factories at the same time and get one of them producing 70,000 cars a year in 2 years? This seems like an unwise way to spend $5b.

At the very least, it's risky. Now, folks were making fun of Elon when he committed to his Gigafactory in NV. Look who's laughing now. :) I certainly hope that Rivian succeeds (I ordered their SUV), but they sure have a ton of work ahead.
 

Ogre

Active Member
Sep 6, 2021
1,952
9,691
Oregon
At the very least, it's risky. Now, folks were making fun of Elon when he committed to his Gigafactory in NV. Look who's laughing now. :) I certainly hope that Rivian succeeds (I ordered their SUV), but they sure have a ton of work ahead.
Hopefully they do work out all of this.

Their SUVs look like the perfect replacement for a 4Runner.
 
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ecarfan

Well-Known Member
Moderator
So, ramping up car production is hard. Rivian building a new factory to the tune of $5B is a ballsy move. Committing that much money when production ramp looks iffy at best for the next 2 years... Basically, they're saying that they plan on building 70K trucks/SUV and 40K Amazon vans over the next 2 years. With 10,000 employees, that doesn't seem very fast.
It’s hard because it is not simply a matter of having lots of money and lots of employees. It’s about building an efficient production line that can take a few thousand separate parts and assembling them to make a product that is of high quality and reliability, and doubly hard right now because the global supply chain is a mess and there are semiconductor shortages.

And those are not the only challenges Rivian is facing. See Sources: Rivian to build $5B electric truck plant in Georgia
—————————
QUOTE: Sam Abuelsamid, principal mobility analyst for Guidehouse Insights…
“If actual deliveries don’t start picking up, the markets could turn against them as they have with some other EV startups not called Tesla,” Abuelsamid said. “Unlike Tesla, Rivian will be facing serious competition in a much shorter time frame than the near- decade head start that Tesla had.” Ford and GM plan to start selling their own electric pickup trucks in the next year or two, while Tesla also plans a new pickup.
—————————

Ford and GM know how to mass produce vehicles, including EVs, and of course Tesla has become the world leader in mass producing EVs (after many years of pain learning how). Those three companies are going to be able to ramp up their EV truck production much more quickly than Rivian.

Again, I want Rivian to succeed. But I think their current stock price (even after the recent slump) is somewhat optimistic. As is Teslas (full disclosure: I own shares and am long on TSLA, I do not own RIVN).
 

Zorg

Active Member
Oct 24, 2017
2,332
2,223
Fremont, ca
It’s hard because it is not simply a matter of having lots of money and lots of employees. It’s about building an efficient production line that can take a few thousand separate parts and assembling them to make a product that is of high quality and reliability, and doubly hard right now because the global supply chain is a mess and there are semiconductor shortages.

And those are not the only challenges Rivian is facing. See Sources: Rivian to build $5B electric truck plant in Georgia
—————————
QUOTE: Sam Abuelsamid, principal mobility analyst for Guidehouse Insights…
“If actual deliveries don’t start picking up, the markets could turn against them as they have with some other EV startups not called Tesla,” Abuelsamid said. “Unlike Tesla, Rivian will be facing serious competition in a much shorter time frame than the near- decade head start that Tesla had.” Ford and GM plan to start selling their own electric pickup trucks in the next year or two, while Tesla also plans a new pickup.
—————————

Ford and GM know how to mass produce vehicles, including EVs, and of course Tesla has become the world leader in mass producing EVs (after many years of pain learning how). Those three companies are going to be able to ramp up their EV truck production much more quickly than Rivian.

Again, I want Rivian to succeed. But I think their current stock price (even after the recent slump) is somewhat optimistic. As is Teslas (full disclosure: I own shares and am long on TSLA, I do not own RIVN).

All true. The window for success is definitely short. The one thing that Rivian got going is that they have a very targeted offering that as far as I can tell will not be offered by others. I mean, the F150 Lightning may be great but it's not a complete overlap with the R1T. That being said, Rivian better find a way to ramp up their production in 2022.
 

thesmokingman

Active Member
Jun 21, 2021
2,032
4,149
Socal
Seems lightning fast at their current pace.

They bought the current factory 4 years ago and haven’t figured out how to deliver 500 cars to customers.

Now they think they can ramp up two factories at the same time and get one of them producing 70,000 cars a year in 2 years? This seems like an unwise way to spend $5b.
They're probably going to fail and have that come to hey zeus moment. They're trying to run before they even learn to crawl. I don't know if many remember but Tesla almost went bankrupt trying to scale the Model 3 up. Mass production is a killer.
 

ecarfan

Well-Known Member
Moderator
Tesla almost went bankrupt trying to scale the Model 3 up
Tesla almost went bankrupt in 2006-2008 trying to scale up Roadster production, and by “scale up” I mean build more than 20/month. Then the company got into trouble trying to just get the X into production while building a relatively low volume of the Model S. Then, as you note, trying to build the Model 3.

Finally, with the Y, Tesla seems to have figured it out. The Cybertruck is going to be a real challenge because of its steel exoskelton design; its unlike any mass production vehicle ever.

Now to be fair, many of Tesla’s production difficulties were self-inflicted wounds. The Roadster was supposed to be built on the existing Lotus Elise chassis with some minor mods, but they turned into major mods and ultimately the Roadster shared only a handful of parts with the Elise. The X Falcon Wing doors, a completely unnecessary innovation, turned out to be devilishly hard, and the huge windshield was also a production problem. The excessively automated Model 3 initial production line could not be made to work right and had to be junked.

Tesla still has production problems in the sense that it can’t build nearly enough cars to meet demand. Rivian also has huge demand and is years away from fulfilling it.

But better to have too much demand and not enough production than the other way around. 😁
 

thesmokingman

Active Member
Jun 21, 2021
2,032
4,149
Socal
Tesla almost went bankrupt in 2006-2008 trying to scale up Roadster production, and by “scale up” I mean build more than 20/month. Then the company got into trouble trying to just get the X into production while building a relatively low volume of the Model S. Then, as you note, trying to build the Model 3.

Finally, with the Y, Tesla seems to have figured it out. The Cybertruck is going to be a real challenge because of its steel exoskelton design; its unlike any mass production vehicle ever.

Now to be fair, many of Tesla’s production difficulties were self-inflicted wounds. The Roadster was supposed to be built on the existing Lotus Elise chassis with some minor mods, but they turned into major mods and ultimately the Roadster shared only a handful of parts with the Elise. The X Falcon Wing doors, a completely unnecessary innovation, turned out to be devilishly hard, and the huge windshield was also a production problem. The excessively automated Model 3 initial production line could not be made to work right and had to be junked.

Tesla still has production problems in the sense that it can’t build nearly enough cars to meet demand. Rivian also has huge demand and is years away from fulfilling it.

But better to have too much demand and not enough production than the other way around. 😁
No doubt they almost went under many times. Hell the whole thing may not have even happened had they not figured out a solution for thermal runaway when LG Chem demanded their cells back in 2006 iirc. But all that while true is unique to Tesla. Their growing pains and there were a lot of them no doubt shaped Tesla because they were forced to change the industry. But what Rivian is doing and going thru is different imo. They're in a position of much greater strength than Tesla was then. The environment is much more welcoming and all the forces that worked against Tesla are not dragging Rivian down, legacy bias is in check. The world has changed in regards to EVs thanks to Tesla. Battery suppliers are more open to selling their cells to pure play EVs unlike back in the mid 2000s. Rivian has many tailwinds and yet they seem slightly delusional. They haven't been able to scale up production for a variety of issues but I presume as Musk said, that mass production is the hardest aspect of them all. Thus the point is they could easily fail if they don't figure out their ramp up issues fast. Their IPO money will only last a few years, much less now at the burn rate they are going thru it. Adding a second factory before you even have one factory up and running is to put it nicely bold.
 
I could easily see Rivian being bought out, if things don’t work out well for them over the next couple of years. And the likelihood of things not working out well in the production scale up is pretty high. What Rivian has done will likely not just disappear, but might well be purchased by a legacy manufacturer once the stock price starts to go down precipitously.
 

FlatSix911

Porsche 918 Hybrid
Jun 15, 2015
7,463
7,672
Silicon Valley
Once upon a time over the Christmas Holiday... a nice OD Rivian was charging next to the local Tesla SC. ;)

1640758347229.png

1640758368351.png

1640758379285.png
 
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ecarfan

Well-Known Member
Moderator
Another example of how Rivian is finding it difficult to scale up production: Rivian delays the bigger battery pack for its electric pickup all the way to 2023

Quote: “Rivian has confirmed that buyers of its R1T electric pickup truck and R1S SUV are going to have to wait until 2023 if they want the biggest battery pack option.”

Which is the only pack option I would chose. I suspect that Rivian is not able to procure battery cells as readily as they had planned for. A problem that likely every EV manufacturer is having, including Tesla. Demand outstrips supply. It will take years for that situation to correct itself.
 

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