Roadster 2023

[URBAN LEGEND]

Just put CCBS, CF wheels, 4680 batteries, 4th motor and active rear wing on the Plaid. Be done lying about the fake upcoming car.

All of these parts exist already.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Again, Elon's argument was robo-taxis will be cheaper than meat based alternatives, which is not that much of a stretch.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that. Who knows what the insurance rates will be for the owners/operators of Robotaxis. The insurance companies, at least at the beginning, might not assess the risks the same as Elon would.

Also, right now, ICE cars people use for ridesharing are much less expensive than Model 3. It won't be until Tesla makes an ICE-price competitive car that Robotaxis might be cheaper than ICE rideshare cars. And if Tesla keeps raising the price of FSD ("appreciating asset" LOL), they'll price themselves out of that market.

Of course, this is all moot because it will be at least a decade before L5 is totally cracked and it's legal to operate robotaxis on the open road (i.e. not previously mapped small areas).

The other part of his argument is that Uber and Lyft will not have the robo-taxi alternative, so they will have to stick to niche markets which will not get into a robo-taxi for some reason -

What makes you think Robotaxis will be the exclusive domain of Tesla? Tesla isn't the only company working on L5 autonomy. Uber has been experimenting with autonomous cars for several years now -- which led to this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/technology/uber-autonomous-crash-driver-charged.html

Once L5 is cracked, there will be Uber, Lyft, and Tesla Robotaxis. So yeah, there is and always will be competition and downward competitive pressure on price.

You even said it yourself:

Robo-taxis already exist in limited markets.

Although I'd argue those are barely autonomous as they only operate on well mapped/coded streets.

We have autonomous trains and subways in large cities, nobody even bats an eye anymore,

Please, do not compare rail-based transport with self-drive/autonomy. That's just a ridiculous argument.

 

[whitex]

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that. Who knows what the insurance rates will be for the owners/operators of Robotaxis. The insurance companies, at least at the beginning, might not assess the risks the same as Elon would.

Hence, Tesla insurance. No different than Uber insuring their drivers.

Also, right now, ICE cars people use for ridesharing are much less expensive than Model 3. It won't be until Tesla makes an ICE-price competitive car that Robotaxis might be cheaper than ICE rideshare cars. And if Tesla keeps raising the price of FSD ("appreciating asset" LOL), they'll price themselves out of that market.

ICE not cheaper if it requires a human driver.

What makes you think Robotaxis will be the exclusive domain of Tesla? Tesla isn't the only company working on L5 autonomy. Uber has been experimenting with autonomous cars for several years now -- which led to this:

Again, this was all assuming Elon would be done with Level 5 and robotaxis deployed by end of 2018. THAT was the ginormous leap of faith, not all the other stuff like where to get the customers, whether people will get into them, or if humans are willing to work for less than FSD price.

Although I'd argue those are barely autonomous as they only operate on well mapped/coded streets.

They are sufficiently autonomous to satisfy a large portion of rides within a large city like Phoenix or San Francisco.

Please, do not compare rail-based transport with self-drive/autonomy. That's just a ridiculous argument.

I used it as an example. You may find it hard to believe, there were people in the past who said they wouldn't get into an autonomous elevator, since they were used to a human operator. My point is that people adopt very quickly. Will there be outliers, of course, my parents for example to this day refuse to use Uber because they heard someone was robbed by an Uber driver. It doesn't mean Uber has no customers.

 

[HankLloydRight]

ICE not cheaper if it requires a human driver.

That's yet to be seen. With custom robotaxi insurance and the added cost of FSD (and the higher costs of Teslas to being with at this time), this is still a big unknown and absolutely no guarantee that Robotaxis will be cheaper.

We all know humans can work pretty darn cheaply when the alternative is no work at all. Even if humans work for free, they can cover the running costs of their rideshare vehicles which is still better than not operating at all. So there will ALWAYS be competition.

And even if it's 'Tesla Insurance' there are still actuaries behind it, and the insurance costs will be commensurate with the risk. Insurance companies still need to make a profit, or at least break-even.

Again, this was all assuming Elon would be done with Level 5 and robotaxis deployed by end of 2018.

Right, which was never going to happen. And it still isn't 5 years later. And I don't think it will be done 5 years from now. Like I said before, anyone who bought into the Robotaxi delusion didn't actually do any critical analysis of it.

 

[whitex]

That's yet to be seen. With custom robotaxi insurance and the added cost of FSD (and the higher costs of Teslas to being with at this time), this is still a big unknown and absolutely no guarantee that Robotaxis will be cheaper.

We all know humans can work pretty darn cheaply when the alternative is no work at all. Even if humans work for free, they can cover the running costs of their rideshare vehicles which is still better than not operating at all. So there will ALWAYS be competition.

No human can compete with a robot. Even if Tesla is $20K more expensive, no human will for 24/7 for the life of the car fro $20K.

And even if it's 'Tesla Insurance' there are still actuaries behind it, and the insurance costs will be commensurate with the risk. Insurance companies still need to make a profit, or at least break-even.

Exactly, and if Elon in fact delivered FSD which is safer than an average human, those actuaries will price the insurance accordingly lower.

Right, which was never going to happen. And it still isn't 5 years later. And I don't think it will be done 5 years from now. Like I said before, anyone who bought into the Robotaxi delusion didn't actually do any critical analysis of it.

We agree on the conclusion, it wasn't going to happen. I've said that since it was first introduced, tried to warn people paying for FSD. You and I just got there from different angles, I simply concluded that Elon will not be able to deliver on all his promises (or even close), while you went off on "if he did deliver on all his promises, it wouldn't work because no customers, insurance, etc, etc.". I disagree with your analysis, but we'll never know who is right since Elon did not deliver on his promises.

 

[HankLloydRight]

No human can compete with a robot. Even if Tesla is $20K more expensive, no human will for 24/7 for the life of the car fro $20K.

You underestimate hungry humans.

Also, again there's no user-demand analysis. During off-hours, there's very little demand for ridesharing (meat or metal), so even the robotaxis will sit idle during those hours.