URBAN LEGEND
Doing it well
Just put CCBS, CF wheels, 4680 batteries, 4th motor and active rear wing on the Plaid. Be done lying about the fake upcoming car.
All of these parts exist already.
All of these parts exist already.
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Roadster 2023
- Thread starter Ian Spencer
- Start date
HankLloydRight
No Roads
I wouldn't be so quick to assume that. Who knows what the insurance rates will be for the owners/operators of Robotaxis. The insurance companies, at least at the beginning, might not assess the risks the same as Elon would.
Also, right now, ICE cars people use for ridesharing are much less expensive than Model 3. It won't be until Tesla makes an ICE-price competitive car that Robotaxis might be cheaper than ICE rideshare cars. And if Tesla keeps raising the price of FSD ("appreciating asset" LOL), they'll price themselves out of that market.
Of course, this is all moot because it will be at least a decade before L5 is totally cracked and it's legal to operate robotaxis on the open road (i.e. not previously mapped small areas).
What makes you think Robotaxis will be the exclusive domain of Tesla? Tesla isn't the only company working on L5 autonomy. Uber has been experimenting with autonomous cars for several years now -- which led to this:
Once L5 is cracked, there will be Uber, Lyft, and Tesla Robotaxis. So yeah, there is and always will be competition and downward competitive pressure on price.
You even said it yourself:
Although I'd argue those are barely autonomous as they only operate on well mapped/coded streets.
Please, do not compare rail-based transport with self-drive/autonomy. That's just a ridiculous argument.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Hence, Tesla insurance. No different than Uber insuring their drivers.
ICE not cheaper if it requires a human driver.
Again, this was all assuming Elon would be done with Level 5 and robotaxis deployed by end of 2018. THAT was the ginormous leap of faith, not all the other stuff like where to get the customers, whether people will get into them, or if humans are willing to work for less than FSD price.
They are sufficiently autonomous to satisfy a large portion of rides within a large city like Phoenix or San Francisco.
I used it as an example. You may find it hard to believe, there were people in the past who said they wouldn't get into an autonomous elevator, since they were used to a human operator. My point is that people adopt very quickly. Will there be outliers, of course, my parents for example to this day refuse to use Uber because they heard someone was robbed by an Uber driver. It doesn't mean Uber has no customers.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
That's yet to be seen. With custom robotaxi insurance and the added cost of FSD (and the higher costs of Teslas to being with at this time), this is still a big unknown and absolutely no guarantee that Robotaxis will be cheaper.
We all know humans can work pretty darn cheaply when the alternative is no work at all. Even if humans work for free, they can cover the running costs of their rideshare vehicles which is still better than not operating at all. So there will ALWAYS be competition.
And even if it's 'Tesla Insurance' there are still actuaries behind it, and the insurance costs will be commensurate with the risk. Insurance companies still need to make a profit, or at least break-even.
Right, which was never going to happen. And it still isn't 5 years later. And I don't think it will be done 5 years from now. Like I said before, anyone who bought into the Robotaxi delusion didn't actually do any critical analysis of it.
whitex
Well-Known Member
No human can compete with a robot. Even if Tesla is $20K more expensive, no human will for 24/7 for the life of the car fro $20K.
Exactly, and if Elon in fact delivered FSD which is safer than an average human, those actuaries will price the insurance accordingly lower.
We agree on the conclusion, it wasn't going to happen. I've said that since it was first introduced, tried to warn people paying for FSD. You and I just got there from different angles, I simply concluded that Elon will not be able to deliver on all his promises (or even close), while you went off on "if he did deliver on all his promises, it wouldn't work because no customers, insurance, etc, etc.". I disagree with your analysis, but we'll never know who is right since Elon did not deliver on his promises.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
You underestimate hungry humans.
Also, again there's no user-demand analysis. During off-hours, there's very little demand for ridesharing (meat or metal), so even the robotaxis will sit idle during those hours.
Welp, looking like Roadster 2025.
As was at the shareholder meeting when this sad news was announced. Elon was very much “maayyyyyyyyybe” next year deliveries so I’m thinking definitely not next year.
As was at the shareholder meeting when this sad news was announced. Elon was very much “maayyyyyyyyybe” next year deliveries so I’m thinking definitely not next year.
zanary
Active Member
I’m the loud “woooooo” immediately after the question was asked.
n2mb_racing
Active Member
whitex
Well-Known Member
They ascertaining remaining vaporcar interest. Perhaps too many existing reservation holders took their money back to even bother setting up any production line at all. Given the volume and frequency of posts in the 202x Roadster forum, it seems people are pretty much over it by now - the car aged out while in Elon-soon stage.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Hasn’t it been nearly 6 years since it was introduced? Even in Elon time that’s a bit much
Imagine being one of the few people that gave Tesla 250 grand in 2017. YIKES.
Interest free and inflation. But I’m sure those people are well off and aren’t too worried about it.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Anyone who had such blind trust in Elon to give him $250K for a Roadster back then, should have just bought TSLA stock instead. 250K would be over $2.5M today. If you feel the need for EV speed, you cold pickup a Rimac Nevera for that money, and if Roadster ever comes, you can sell the Nevera, pickup the Roadster from an existing reservation holder (or one of the youtubers who got multiple awarded), and still have plenty of money leftover.
whitex
Well-Known Member
No time machine needed. Just pragmatic thinking. If you trust Elon to give him a quarter million dollars for vapor car, you obviously believe the company will be around and doing well enough to manufacture such low volume/non-profit car, which means the stock will be doing great. If stock tanks, not Roadster for sure, so you lose all of $250K, vs. at least recoup some from a tanking stock.
Notice I didn't say everyone should have invested in TSLA back then, that would be having a time machine, I was just saying if you were already giving Elon $250K on faith, then it made more sense to buy TSLA.
Look, the point being that *at the time* the car was the hot item, signature reservations sold out quickly and we all thought the car was 1-2 years away. Hindsight 20-20, and there’s no point arguing this.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Doesn’t take hindsight. I’ve been telling people since FSD was announced to do the same - if you truly believe your car will self drive autonomously like Elon said, serve in a fleet to Tesla ride sharing network, then take the FSD money and buy TSLA stock instead. If Tesla makes it happen, their stock will be worth so much more than the FSD option. And if they fail (like they did so far), even if the stock drops, you get some value back. If you search this forum, you will find me telling people that since 2016. Those who listened in 2016 are very much ahead right now.
