Roadster 3.0

[slcasner]

I wonder how accurate that really is, however. Many of the older Roadsters are at 7 years now, and mine is at 100K miles and 6.5 years. I have about 87% of the original capacity. I suppose there could be a rapid decline over the next six month, but that would be pretty uncharacteristic for the car so far. I suspect that the 7 year number will turn out to be conservative just like the 100K one was.

I guess we are about to find out! My #33 was built on October 6, 2008 and has had no drivetrain replacements (other than PEM line-in fuses).

 

[smac]

I guess we are about to find out! My #33 was built on October 6, 2008 and has had no drivetrain replacements (other than PEM line-in fuses).

Certainly will be interesting. Lots of research on this, and at least one prediction out of accelerated battery testing regimes I have seen suggests an "S curve", with fast initial drop off, followed by a plateau, then out in the multi-thousand cycle range (/multi year) a second drop off, where effectively the battery approaches EOL.

Of course this accelerated testing may well not be accurate. The true test will be when the cars have actually done the real world cycling / aging. Making it even harder to predict is the statistical nature of this sort of research, so one car may be fine another may suffer more from an aged / used pack.

 

[simonog]

Remember that lithium-ion batteries have a calendar lifetime as well as a charging cycle lifetime. In order to get 100K miles out of the battery you have to drive enough miles each year to reach 100K within the calendar lifetime, which was figured as 7 years (hence that timing in the battery replacement option).

Tesla give an 8-year warranty on the Model S battery pack; if a Li Ion cell life is 7 years, they have a big bill coming....

 

[JRP3]

Different cell chemistry in the Model S.

 

[Juanmax]

Do you expect really that the chemistry of the Roadster battery condemns it to die (capacity 50%), let's say, after 12 years avg? That would be pretty bad and demolish any collecting value for it.

 

[ecarfan]

Tesla give an 8-year warranty on the Model S battery pack; if a Li Ion cell life is 7 years, they have a big bill coming....

The 8 year Model S battery warranty does not mean that at 8 years, or even 10 or 12, the S battery is so degraded as to be useless. In fact it may well have 70-80% of its original capacity and be quite useful. I expect the Roadster battery to be similar or slightly worse.

 

[JRP3]

Do you expect really that the chemistry of the Roadster battery condemns it to die (capacity 50%), let's say, after 12 years avg?

Actually, yes I do.

That would be pretty bad and demolish any collecting value for it.

Disagree. The 3.0 upgrade proves that not only will replacements be available to keep the vehicles going they will have more range than when new, in truth, the cars will be better than new.

 

[Juanmax]

I was convinced that the Roadster would be a collectors car and classic in the future. However this point is: TESLA MUST offer a battery replacement due to the battery replacement program. This, hopefully will be available until 2022. Somebody in TMC (Bonnie?) said they should be for around 10 years after purchasing date. (2012+10)

That means, if they stop selling them at that point, which I find it pretty probable, all Roadsters (average) will be down to 50% capacity at 2034. Only considering calender life

Here in Germany a car needs to be +30 to be recognised as an old-timer.

By the way, nobody mentioned whether the cell chemistry in the 3.0 improves calender life?

 

[smac]

Actually, yes I do.

I'm with you on this. The pack is effectively a wear item, and one which unfortunately wears even if you don't turn a wheel. 12 years seems fair.

Disagree. The 3.0 upgrade proves that not only will replacements be available to keep the vehicles going they will have more range than when new, in truth, the cars will be better than new.

We really don't know where this will head, investment cars are ridiculously hard to predict.

We are at least a decade out for the Roadster to get any clues where this goes IMHO, so right now the sensible approach is to treat it like a regular car. What we (well you and I at least ) suspect is that it is likely within the next 5 years the car will need $30k spending on it. (And those who bought the pre-paid replacement pack made a shrewd investment).

Unfortunately this has to be factored in to the value of a Roadster. An example, right now a UK spec Roadster can be bought for £50k, add on to that another £30k over the next 5 years, and the market value for a used Roadster would need to be £80k in 2021, which may be tough to achieve against the backdrop of a CPO'd P90DL being nearly half that. It's also dangerously close to Ferrari money which if you are going to speculate in cars has a much more proven track record.

As for what happens in 2026, well who knows one might be able to pick up a pack for peanuts from Tesla (this I doubt personally) or we hope EVs are much more mainstream and third parties can put together a replacement pack under a more price sensitive competitive environment using commodity parts.

This is a head vs heart thing. I'd love a Roadster, but to own one I'd have to justify it purely for the driving experience not as a money making exercise.

 

[JRP3]

This is a head vs heart thing. I'd love a Roadster, but to own one I'd have to justify it purely for the driving experience not as a money making exercise.

Which I would say is the only way to buy any vehicle, unless you enjoy gambling. Too many unknowns can affect the long term value of a car, though in the long run I suspect the low production numbers of the Roadster will at some point make one quite valuable. As long as technology keeps advancing you will always be able to put some superior form of electrical storage in the vehicle. If technology stops advancing for some reason we probably have larger problems than the value of a collector vehicle, such as being back in the stone age, or extinct.

 

[wiztecy]

By the way, nobody mentioned whether the cell chemistry in the 3.0 improves calender life?

Typically as technology advances, so does the life of battery cells. A few things here, the Roadster battery was basically built out of regular old laptop batteries (LCO chemistry). This has the lowest calendar life of any lithium battery chemistry to this date. At that time when Roadsters were produced, late 2008/early2009, this was the only cutting edge battery technology for EV vehicles. It also offered the longest calendar life for any EV battery. The 3.0 pack which will replace the stock Roadster battery was designed for EV's and was used in the Model-S (LiNiCoAlO2 or NCA chemistry). The newer technology was designed to handle daily stresses of an EV vehicle that the driver dishes out, also heat, high/low SOC discharges, etc... with that, it will extend the calendar life. Also, since the later designed batteries were designed for an EV vehicle, and not a laptop battery, the calendar life of the newer designed battery cell was definitely one of the top design specifications & requirements. We can always review how the earlier Model-S battery packs hold up over time to see how they handle stresses and the age of time for real statistics that are at least 4 years into their maturity.

In July 2015 Tesla started using an improved battery chemistry in the Model S. I'm curious if the 3.0 is using this new battery chemistry or the latter chemistry that was used in 2012-June '15.


Reference for calendar life with respect to battery chemistry:
https://www2.unece.org/wiki/download/attachments/8126481/EVE-06-05e.pdf?api=v2

 

[PRJIM]

The 3.0 cells are LG HG2 NMC cells, not NCA or the ones used in the Model S.

 

[wiztecy]

The newer cells are LG HG2 NMC cells, not NCA or the ones used in the Model S.

Thank you for correction.

So are these the same NMC cells that're being used in the power-wall? Appears that the NMC is even better than the NCA in terms of lifespan but has less energy density. Reading a quote from Fortune magazine from Musk it appears these have a 15 year calander lifespan:

"Musk optimistically says that the lifetime of that battery is 1,000 to 1,500 cycles, or “maybe 15 years calendar life.” Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt—they are likely based on a situation in which the battery isn’t always using its full capacity."

"An NCA battery typically has a shorter cycle life and a higher energy density (and less stability). An NMC battery generally has a longer cycle life, more stability, and less energy density."

Reference:
Tesla will use different batteries for its grid products. Here's why - Fortune

 

[strider]

I was convinced that the Roadster would be a collectors car and classic in the future. However this point is: TESLA MUST offer a battery replacement due to the battery replacement program. This, hopefully will be available until 2022. Somebody in TMC (Bonnie?) said they should be for around 10 years after purchasing date. (2012+10)

That means, if they stop selling them at that point, which I find it pretty probable, all Roadsters (average) will be down to 50% capacity at 2034. Only considering calender life

Here in Germany a car needs to be +30 to be recognised as an old-timer.

Like all cars, it will be up to the aftermarket to support old models. For the most part you're not walking into any dealer and buying factory parts for a 30-year old car (outside of factory-supported aftermarket things like crate engines, etc which are typically done by a separate division). Heck, TMC has already engaged the aftermarket to get new brake rotors made so it's possible. Someone like JRP3 or wk057 may someday hang out a shingle and offer to replace cells in battery packs. It won't be cheap, but nothing on a high tech low volume car will be.

I believe the much more immediate shortage is with body panels. I had to replace my trunk lid last year and the one they sent me looked horrible. There were tons of cosmetic defects in the underside. I talked to Tesla and they said that "that was the best one they had." So they're clearly getting to the bottom of the barrel. Mine had a very small crack so I asked the body shop if I could keep it. So I have one that's in pretty good shape if anyone needs one (or it could be used to make a mold if someone wanted to have some made).

 

[Mitrovic]

Just got an Email from my Service Center stating that the battery 3.0 is available and could be installed in 4 to 8 weeks in Switzerland... Could this be true?

 

[dpeilow]

Better get it before they change their minds

Still want to see a picture of the range when *fully charged*.

 

[AEdennis]

Better get it before they change their minds

Still want to see a picture of the range when *fully charged*.

Or a video when charging to full.

 

[thefortunes]

Better get it before they change their minds

Still want to see a picture of the range when *fully charged*.

The ~90% range charge picture here Roadster #1232 - First 3.0 for sale...ever? isn't enough? 308 miles at ~90% = 342 miles full.

 

[dpeilow]

Yeah I can do the math... but it's not the same as having a picture showing 100% full to give to the naysayers...

 

[Lahtc]

I should have it for you soon!

I am the proud new owner of Roasdster#109 and just love it.
I saw Service Maintenance warning recently and called the local Service Center.
Got it scheduled and when she asked if there was anything else, I told her about my TPMS bothering me a lot and she said she would check that out.
Then I mentioned I was on the 3.0 list (since Nov) and maybe they could go ahead and just pop that in while they had it.
"Sure" she said, "that sounds like a good idea, I'll make a note."

So, thats it, I'm sure they will just pop it right in for me in two weeks when I bring it down!
(I know....but worth a try!