Rolling Resale Value Thread

[BMWY]

With the precipitous drop in resale values lately, I figured having a thread tracking them would be beneficial. For some context, my friend sold his MYP with 18k miles to Carmax in August for 72k

Offer Date: 9/14
Company: Carmax
Region: North East US
Year/Color/Model: 2022 Red MYP
Mileage: 700
Offer: $58,000

 

[jjrandorin]

I understand the idea here, but since even individual companies can have wildly different offer prices, unless you are also going to get quotes from pretty much every major company, 2-3 times a week, there isnt much chance of this being super relevant.

Im not saying you cant do it or anything, just that it isnt going to be that useful. People should not expect there to be a market to "flip" regular cars, though. There might have been for a fairly short period of time, but expecting that is a losing proposition.

 

[z335is]

Offer Date: 9/15
Company: Carvana and Vroom
Region: North East US
Year/Color/Model: 2022 black MYP
Mileage: 1100
Offer: $58,500 from Carvana 59,900 from Vroom

 

[BMWY]

I understand the idea here, but since even individual companies can have wildly different offer prices, unless you are also going to get quotes from pretty much every major company, 2-3 times a week, there isnt much chance of this being super relevant.

Im not saying you cant do it or anything, just that it isnt going to be that useful. People should not expect there to be a market to "flip" regular cars, though. There might have been for a fairly short period of time, but expecting that is a losing proposition.

True... my intent isn't as a flipper though, but more so to track some of the more wild fluctuations and see if we can draw any correlative data. Case and point, the situation we are in now with current values versus those from just one month ago.

 

[240vPlug]

Black book is good at tracking wholesale prices. Over the years what I have noticed is demand slows, wholesale prices fall, then trade in fall, then eventually you will start seeing retail prices fall. Of course that’s not a given just what I have noticed in the past.

Wholesale prices have been declining. They are down overall by 10% or so from July. That’s overall and not Tesla specific. I do have another thread though discussing the amount of used Tesla 3/Y vehicles available for sale. The number is increasing over the last month, cars are sitting , and I’m seeing some aggressive price drops. Though I still think they have further to go.

 

[240vPlug]

According to cars.com 7,897 M3 used available for sale nationwide. 3,468 MY. Roughly 10% of those vehicles are within 50 miles of me. Though I’m kind of in a unique area between Baltimore, DC, and northern VA

 

[blinkme323]

My offers from August on Carvana/Vroom/Carmax were about 20% more than they are now. It's nutty

 

[YNoVA]

I sold my Standard Range Y in July for 58k.

For shits & giggles I decided to plug the VIN back in and got an offer of 47k today.

11k drop in two months time.

 

[1plavs]

‘22 MYP, 11k miles
Vroom
$42k
9/18

My ultimate goal was to sell our current MYP and buy a ‘23 MYP to get the tax credit. So far it looks like that will not be happening.

 

[voxel]

I sold my Standard Range Y in July for 58k.

For shits & giggles I decided to plug the VIN back in and got an offer of 47k today.

11k drop in two months time.

Same. I checked my old Y that I sold for $69K and now it's $54K. Yikes.

I do know values fluctuate. My Telluride went from $61K to $44K (gas price peak) to now $50K (gas prices are lower).

Still... we won't be seeing crazy 2021/2022 peak prices again.

 

[Nrvna76]

2021 MY 7 Seat with Tow 7,500 miles
Carvana $47,500
Vroom $50,000
givemethevin $54-$56k

A couple of months ago it was high $60's..KBB still shows an estimate of $63k but I'm not sure how relevant they are anymore.

 

[Torch]

People are waiting for the rebates. It will be interesting to see what prices do in 2023, prices will probably go back up again some, but not where they were. The supply and demand curves are nearing equilibrium right now but a lot of people are waiting for the rebates and holding back. In 2023 the demand will increase more than the supply due to the rebates. On a side note, it is nice to see the supply issues getting better, at least for Tesla.

 

[240vPlug]

People are waiting for the rebates. It will be interesting to see what prices do in 2023, prices will probably go back up again some, but not where they were. The supply and demand curves are nearing equilibrium right now but a lot of people are waiting for the rebates and holding back. In 2023 the demand will increase more than the supply due to the rebates. On a side note, it is nice to see the supply issues getting better, at least for Tesla.

This is true for new vehicles. Demand will be down for the rest of the year as folks will look to delay until the tax credit goes into effect on 1/1/23.

As for resale however and used vehicles I don’t see those recovering much value in the near term. Especially now that the rebates are available on the new ones. The used vehicle market is turning down now.

With the new Austin factory Tesla will be able to supply more vehicles. Will be interesting to watch where things go into next year.

 

[dinonugget]

For the fun of it, I put in the VIN of my previous 2021 Model Y LR into Vroom. Back in mid July of this past summer, they offered $63k. Today, the new offer for the same car, condition, and mileage is $47k. The bubble popping is real.

 

[saj070]

Next 2 to 3 month repo will start remember housing bubble inflated loans in houses

Same here banks loaning 10k to $20k over real value think what will happen bank will hold all the repo cars then flood the market this will tank used car prices

 

[240vPlug]

Next 2 to 3 month repo will start remember housing bubble inflated loans in houses

Same here banks loaning 10k to $20k over real value think what will happen bank will hold all the repo cars then flood the market this will tank used car prices

From what I hear the repos already going strong. Banks will try to trickle cars out to the auctions because they don’t want to crash prices. Pure speculation of course.

 

[Corndart]

From what I hear the repos already going strong. Banks will try to trickle cars out to the auctions because they don’t want to crash prices. Pure speculation of course.

It's not speculation .

 

[LionelHutz]

I was gobsmacked by how significantly the online purchasing quotes dropped for my car. '21 MYP ~20k.

Vroom may well have been an outlier on how much they were willing to pay in August, but wow is that a huge drop in a couple of months. Rude awakening on my new car plans LOL

Vroom:
January: $64k
August: $67k
October: $46k

Carvana:
January: $62k
August: $56k
October: $50k

 

[240vPlug]

Upsetting sure...but not surprised unfortunately. They are mostly sitting since July. All those dealers are now upside down and losing more value each week. It's not a good time right now. If the fed hiles rates again on Wednesday you can expect this will get much worse. The only short term hope of a price rebound for used would be a significant spike in gas prices. Even then there are tons sitting on dealer lots at least near me. Over 700 M3 and 300 MY within 50 miles last time I checked.

We need less supply AND more demand for prices to come back up.

 

[voxel]

The days of any EV selling on the spot are over. Used Tesla prices are declining as is the entire EV market.

Today I visited my VW dealer who had 12 unsold ID.4s at MSRP. Two are eligible for the tax credits and ten are not. I wanted to test drive the 2023 to see if I would I want one earlier without the 360 cam and (now delete) premium audio - nope.

Tesla is cranking out cars. Used prices are not going to rise.