Rough probability of battery failure prior to warranty expiring?

[MarkoJ]

I have a 2016 Tesla Model S I purchased new in Feb 2016 so I have 18 months or so left on the warranty. Current at 214,000 km and will probably get it to 260,000ish by end of warranty. Rough odds battery fails before warranty expires?

Trying to decide whether to keep or sell now while used prices are high and I can advertise 18 months warranty left. Ideally don't want to be caught with battery replacement right out of warranty.

 

[jwharnish]

I have a 2016 Tesla Model S I purchased new in Feb 2016 so I have 18 months or so left on the warranty. Current at 214,000 km and will probably get it to 260,000ish by end of warranty. Rough odds battery fails before warranty expires?

Trying to decide whether to keep or sell now while used prices are high and I can advertise 18 months warranty left. Ideally don't want to be caught with battery replacement right out of warranty.

You have a 6 year old battery with 214k on it. Batteries cost what $150. You got more than what many would expect to get from an OEM battery. Do you wait till tires fail before replacing them? Just basic routine maintenance would be replacing the 6 year old battery before it leaves you stranded.
I replaced my 3's battery at around the 3 year mark, maybe a little early but I was going on a 6k trip and felt I needed the added reassurance of a fresh battery.

 

[cwerdna]

I think he's talking about the big high voltage pack that out of warranty is a LOT more than $150.

 

[jwharnish]

I think he's talking about the big high voltage pack that out of warranty is a LOT more than $150.

Well that would change my response. Nevermind.

 

[pilotSteve]

Ask @wk057

 

[MarkoJ]

I think he's talking about the big high voltage pack that out of warranty is a LOT more than $150.

Yes sorry the big high voltage is what I meant. My ideal are scenarios are it fails before warranty is up or I sell the car now. Not too keen on a high mileage 8 year old battery out of warranty.

 

[cwerdna]

Trying to decide whether to keep or sell now while used prices are high and I can advertise 18 months warranty left. Ideally don't want to be caught with battery replacement right out of warranty.

If that's your view, then I would just sell in the near future. But, then of course, you might need a replacement car for which you might be waiting awhile for or it's expensive/marked up.

Not too keen on a high mileage 8 year old battery out of warranty.

Ditto. You've probably seen the prices. Replacement are NOT cheap.

 

[ucmndd]

The only people with this data aren’t talking.

Just hit 145k miles in my 2016 S75 today. Still going strong.

 

[ucmndd]

Ditto. You've probably seen the prices. Replacement are NOT cheap.

Cheaper than a new car…

 

[cwerdna]

Cheaper than a new car…

Well, other than the drive unit, the rest of the car is out of warranty. And once his DU and battery warranty are up, that's basically it. Could be some more expensive repairs down the road.

 

[Unclepaul]

Lots of used car owners feel pressure to sell their cars prior to warranties run out (gas as well as EV). With prices of used Tesla so high right now, it is understandable that the OP would be investigating this option. If Tesla used prices come way down, OP will probably want to kick himself by missing this opportunity. Flip side, is that buying a new or newer Tesla right now to replace it is also going to cost more.

 

[MarkoJ]

I don't mind waiting for a base Model 3 which wouldn't be that much more $ than my used Model S; however, preference would be for the battery to die before warranty is up. Love the looks of the model s, pano roof, free supercharging, etc. Don't love it enough over new model 3 to drop 20k on a battery replacement out of warranty.

 

[The Lorax]

I'm in the same boat as you but figure I'd prefer the CHANCE that I'd have to drop $20-$25k on a new battery than the GUARANTEE that I'd spend at least that to step down into a lesser car. Just my two cents...

 

[UncleCreepy]

Not specific to the Model S, but as a ballpark number: if we estimate the usable lifetime of a lithium battery to be 1,000 full charging cycles (that's a rather low estimate) and the cars approximate range per charge at 328 km, you'd get 328,000 km out of the battery before it reaches 70% of its original capacity.

Why 328 km? The posted EPA range of an S70D is 386 km and I used Tesla's 70% threshold where they consider the battery degraded. At that point a full battery would only give you 270 km of range. 328 km is in the middle between 70% and 100%.

Chances are that the battery can handle way more than 1,000 full cycles which would increase the mileage you'd get out of it.

This is of course nothing but an estimate what I'd expect from a new battery and does not apply if your battery already shows signs of increased degradation. Other factors such as letting the battery sit at a very high or low SoC, frequent supercharging etc will impact the lifetime of the battery, too.

As long as the battery is still performing alright I wouldn't be too concerned about a battery failure. You can probably use it for at least another 100,000 km.

 

[cwerdna]

Plenty of Model S packs have failed or needed replacement for whatever reason short of 328K km (203K miles), some well short. There are plenty here on TMC.

Too bad almost nobody adds to Two Thirds of Early Model S Drivetrains May Fail By 60,000miles (ignore the title) and Tesla Model S Survey by Plug In America any longer. You can see the current data at Battery Survey « Plug In America and the oldest copy I can find from Jan 2018 at Battery Survey « Plug In America.

 

[airborne spoon]

I'm at 145k miles on the original pack and my warranty expires this December. I will never sell my car, and if the pack takes a crap on me after the warranty expires i have a savings account with $23k that is literally just for buying a new battery if/when this one fails. Since the current price is like $20k for a new pack

 

[jwharnish]

I'm at 145k miles on the original pack and my warranty expires this December. I will never sell my car, and if the pack takes a crap on me after the warranty expires i have a savings account with $23k that is literally just for buying a new battery if/when this one fails. Since the current price is like $20k for a new pack

I wonder if the new batteries 4680's will fit the earlier cars?

 

[airborne spoon]

I wonder if the new batteries 4680's will fit the earlier cars?

i wouldnt expect them to its a entirely different design and they have no reason to make one for the older cars until its more cost effective to do so which is gonna be a LONG way off

 

[zoomer0056]

The only people with this data aren’t talking.

Just hit 145k miles in my 2016 S75 today. Still going strong.

"Still going strong" ... what is the max range change? What're your discharging and charging habits? Thanks ...

 

[FLRifleman]

I wouldn't worry about the miles, I would be focused on the age of the HV battery. Around 10 years would be the expected failure range. I don't know if Tesla provides access to cell voltages, as there isn't an OBDII port. If they do, I would start monitoring that.