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Rumor: HW4 can support up to 13 cameras

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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
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It's an unsubstantiated rumor at this point so take it with a big grain of salt. But do we believe it?

I think it has a ring of truth to it. It would make sense for Tesla to upgrade the cameras at some point. Furthermore, other companies like Mobileye are using 12 cameras. So I could definitely see Tesla making a move to 13 cameras.

I've also noticed FSD Beta creep forward hesitantly a lot on the roads I drive which would suggest the current camera placement is not quite enough. So adding cameras would make sense IMO.
 
One can only imagine how massive of a change this would be on the software side considering what we've already seen just from cameras using different color sensors

They would need to integrate the new camera views into their 3D bird's eye view. So it would probably require another "rewrite" of their software.
 
What would this mean for cars with 3.0 and FSD? Would they require a 4.0 update to function correctly, or would they have some sort of "reduced functionality" FSD?
Yep this was addressed at AI day. Elon expects HW3 will provide FSD 200-300% safer than a human. HW4 may be 1000% safer.
I doubt they'll ever upgrade any HW3 cars even if they don't achieve those safety targets but who knows.
 
Yep this was addressed at AI day. Elon expects HW3 will provide FSD 200-300% safer than a human. HW4 may be 1000% safer.

I am super skeptical of those numbers since we have not seen any safety data on FSD Beta yet. Certainly, the anecdotal evidence we have suggests the current FSD Beta 10.4 unsupervised is not 200-300% safer than a human. So Tesla has a long ways to go just to achieve the first goal of 200-300% safer, let alone HW4 achieving 1000% when HW4 is not even in production yet. This is Elon just making his "forward looking statements" that we should take with a grain of salt.
 
Yep this was addressed at AI day. Elon expects HW3 will provide FSD 200-300% safer than a human. HW4 may be 1000% safer.
I doubt they'll ever upgrade any HW3 cars even if they don't achieve those safety targets but who knows.

I am curious though. If HW3 does achieve 200-300% safer than human unsupervised, would Tesla remove driver supervision for HW3 cars? Or would Tesla keep driver supervision for HW3 and only remove driver supervision for HW4 cars (assuming HW4 achieves 1000% safer)?
 
I am super skeptical of those numbers since we have not seen any safety data on FSD Beta yet. Certainly, the anecdotal evidence we have suggests the current FSD Beta 10.4 unsupervised is not 200-300% safer than a human. So Tesla has a long ways to go just to achieve the first goal of 200-300% safer, let alone HW4 achieving 1000% when HW4 is not even in production yet. This is Elon just making his "forward looking statements" that we should take with a grain of salt.
These are what one might call WAGs.

Ofcourse, you can't really determine the eventual error rate of HW3 based on 10.4.

It's an unsubstantiated rumor at this point so take it with a big grain of salt. But do we believe it?
How good is this particular user when it comes to posting supply chain info ? What is the track record ?
 
I am curious though. If HW3 does achieve 200-300% safer than human unsupervised, would Tesla remove driver supervision for HW3 cars? Or would Tesla keep driver supervision for HW3 and only remove driver supervision for HW4 cars (assuming HW4 achieves 1000% safer)?
So many hypotheticals about things that have an infinitesimally small chance of happening. haha.
I think to achieve 200-300% safer than humans they'd have to eliminate almost 100% of at-fault collisions so I think they would not require driver supervision.
 
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1280x960 = 1.2 megapixels, current hardware
1920x1080 = 2.1 megapixels, sometimes referred to as HD resolution
2560x1920 = 5 megapixels, current hardware times 2 for both horizontal and vertical resolution
Seems to pass the muster test.
Here mobileye says they use 11 cameras. Mobileye SuperVision™ for Hands-free ADAS I've seen different mobileye pages with different camera counts. Notice that mobileye uses two cameras front center, where as they use to use 3 and Tesla uses 3.
 
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1280x960 = 1.2 megapixels, current hardware
1920x1080 = 2.1 megapixels, sometimes referred to as HD resolution
2560x1920 = 5 megapixels, current hardware times 2 for both horizontal and vertical resolution
Seems to pass the muster test.
4x pixels and 60% more cameras to process. What was the estimate for HW4 compute over HW3 again? Better be, to use one of Elon's favorite phrases, an order of magnitude more powerful considering HW3 is supposedly close to maxed out...