tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
HW4 and 4680 batteries will be my cue to upgrade my 2015 S85D
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Rumor: HW4 can support up to 13 cameras
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
If you still need it to be an S, gonna be a long wait... S/X likely to be last thing to get 4680 cells
All likely to see 4680 first:
Y in Austin (confirmed)
Y in Berlin (not using em yet but explicit plans to)
Cybertruck (for density and structural pack)
Semi (for density, though initial ones likely shorter range are using 2170)
Roadster 2.0 (for density and structural pack)
After that would likely be:
Model 3 in Austin/Berlin depending if/when they add that model to either so they can launch it with structural packs
Model 3/Y in CA and China (for structural pack- likely once Austin/Berlin are ramped enough on either they can afford to take the time to make it happen)
And even those two are semi-questionable given they'll want to do SOMETHING with a plentiful supply of 2170 cells until they're no longer cell constrained
And finally S/X, since they've otherwise got a plentiful supply of 18650s and Plaid shows they don't need better for crazy good performance.
All likely to see 4680 first:
Y in Austin (confirmed)
Y in Berlin (not using em yet but explicit plans to)
Cybertruck (for density and structural pack)
Semi (for density, though initial ones likely shorter range are using 2170)
Roadster 2.0 (for density and structural pack)
After that would likely be:
Model 3 in Austin/Berlin depending if/when they add that model to either so they can launch it with structural packs
Model 3/Y in CA and China (for structural pack- likely once Austin/Berlin are ramped enough on either they can afford to take the time to make it happen)
And even those two are semi-questionable given they'll want to do SOMETHING with a plentiful supply of 2170 cells until they're no longer cell constrained
And finally S/X, since they've otherwise got a plentiful supply of 18650s and Plaid shows they don't need better for crazy good performance.
CyberGus
Not Just a Member
The Cybertruck has use for additional cameras: underneath for offroading, rear cameras for towing and rear-view "mirror" display, etc. I'm not sure how standard AP/FSD would use additional cameras, except for perhaps a better cross-traffic view.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The Y and X both also tow (even the 3/S do in Europe- they just don't support the factory tow option in the US)
And underneath cameras would solve the current blind spots existing vehicles have near-the-body viewing of parking situations... (ie finally allow a real 360 overhead parking view, and allow the car to actually see things really near to it when leaving or entering a tight parking spot)
Likewise adding side-looking cameras ahead of the B-pillar (near the turn lights being the most obvious spot) would significantly improve the current poor "creeping for visibility" behavior us FSDBeta testers are familiar with.
So tons of room for improvement to the system-- just that if you do add new locations it makes retrofitting a lot harder.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
The best cross traffic camera location would be side facing and embedded in each headlight. Interestingly, a cursory search of US patents shows no such integrated assembly.
I would wait until there are actual, confirmed benefits for those things. I'm perfectly happy with my 2015's rock-solid and non-phantom-braking AP1 and 2% battery degradation, for example. There are any number of reasons you might want to "upgrade" to a newer model year, but those things might very well be disappointing.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, HW4 might be useful. Not sure about 4680. Yes, its great for Tesla .... and investors. Unless, it enables faster supercharging and you need that ....
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
4680 for an equal amount of kwh of capacity should be s a lighter vehicle, esp if combined with a structural pack... which all else being equal should be objectively, measurably, better for efficiency and handling.
Not necessarily MASSIVELY different if you're not like tracking the car or something, but certainly not nothing.
I'd say longer range for same kwh too but Tesla could always choose to just reduce the kwh capacity to offer same range with less weight/cells.
Not necessarily MASSIVELY different if you're not like tracking the car or something, but certainly not nothing.
I'd say longer range for same kwh too but Tesla could always choose to just reduce the kwh capacity to offer same range with less weight/cells.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes - there are so many other changes from 7 years ago that would collectively make a ‘22 better than a ‘15 … not sure 4680 itself is a step change.
I have a Y on order, but will probably get a non-4680 from Fremont. No big deal really ….
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
The only reasons I can think of involve handling cross traffic, both at intersections and when pulling out of parking places. And even that could probably be largely solved by replacing the main front camera with a higher-resolution front camera so that you won't need the narrow center camera, then replacing the narrow and wide front cameras with steeply angled cameras pointing off towards the sides. That approach would be an easy retrofit, too.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
IMO, its extremely unlikely they will upgrade all HW3 cars to HW4. They will try to get FSD Beta to be good enough to make it "widely available" i.e. available to anyone who paid for FSD. Then they will not owe anything (except for early, pre-2019/March FSD buyers).
I mean, it's already pretty darn good now I suppose. I just hope it will improve even more for us before they cut us off.
Not to the extent required to go from the pre-FSD to the FSD stack. Sure, there would be a lot of re-training, but the basic flows, stitching etc will tend to carry over. And once you are past the BEV and into the interpretation layers, things wont change much (if at all). So yes, lots of work, but no-where near as much as the current FSD effort.
My suspicion is they will transition over to 4680 sooner rather than later for 3/Y, mostly for economic reasons. Tesla are finally getting the start of some decent competition from the likes of Kia and VW, and that is going to gradually put them under price pressure, and 4680 is one way to get the costs down somewhat (or at least should be if you go by their math). However I agree that this may not happen until the re-engineer for structural pack (which would amount to a major refresh of the 3/Y frame).
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Whereas I think it's just the opposite... they are cell limited. And will be for a good while yet.
So they're not going to transition the 3 (or China/CA model Y) to 4680 when they can instead be putting those in OTHER vehicles and retaining the existing 2170 supply in existing 3 production.
Same reason the S/X are still using 18650- they have a steady supply sufficient to meet demand in those cells- switching to another form factor where they're cell limited would reduce how many vehicles they sell.
4680 won't be ramped to the point they have cells to spare for a long while yet... they first need a ton more for Austin... then Berlin... then all the not-launched-yet models like CT, Semi, Roadster.... only then can they start to worry about if they have so many they can afford to give up other form factors they have separate supply on.
And I don't really take the COMPETITION IS COMING argument seriously....because I've been hearing it for 10 years and it still hasn't really amounted to much.
Kia, FWIW does make some decent EVs. But they lack the capacity to produce anywhere near enough for Tesla to care about them.
VW is doing somewhat better... but apart from being well behind on capacity, it misunderstands the market.
Virtually every EV VW sells isn't a lost Tesla sale. It's a lost VW ICE sale. (or possibly a lost sale from another ICE maker).
The total addressable market for EVs is... all vehicles.
It's going to be years before there's sufficient EV production from anybody (including Tesla) where you won't be able to sell 100% of all EVs you can physically make as long as the vehicle doesn't suck.... so there's not really any pressure on anybody in that sense.
The only place there's pressure is on legacy companies being able to survive the transition or not. Some are certainly doing better than others- but none are really putting any "pressure" on Tesla-- who keeps RAISING prices and their backorder book keeps getting longer.
If HW4 brings additional sensors than I doubt it, but it its only a computer swap than yeah.
If it brings additional sensors than they'll probably finally allow people to transfer FSD onto a new vehicle.
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