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It is always best to have a healthy skepticism of information provided by an anonymous person (@ZeApelido ) referencing anonymous sources ("some folks").
That does not mean that the OP is just making stuff up. Maybe they aren't, maybe they aren't. I have no way of kowing and neither does anyone else on TMC unless they a Tesla Model 3 manufacturing/design employee in disguise.k
I recommend not making any investment decisions based on this thread.
That does not mean that the OP is just making stuff up. Maybe they aren't, maybe they aren't. I have no way of kowing and neither does anyone else on TMC unless they a Tesla Model 3 manufacturing/design employee in disguise.k
I recommend not making any investment decisions based on this thread.
Why is this so hard to believe? I know we all want our cars now and believe Tesla to be infallible, but think about it. Tesla has designed and tooled up for this car faster than any other car in history. They're doing things in one year that industry veterans say will take two. Tesla claims they don't need to test their cars because of "advanced analytical techniques", whatever that means. Test drivers during the reveal have said they won't be able to implement features because they don't have enough time.
Everything about the Model 3 launch screams RUSH RUSH RUSH. Even when taking their sweet time, automakers with far more experience still have launch issues, what makes you think Tesla will be better in less time?
The rapid ramp-up and hard deadlines are scary and for good reason. They're overly ambitious. Any engineer knows that when asked how long it'll take to complete a task, you make your estimate, then add 20%. Elon subtracted 20%. Everybody involved in the production of this car is running ragged and somehow you think the finished product will be perfect? This is a recipe for disaster.
Everything about the Model 3 launch screams RUSH RUSH RUSH. Even when taking their sweet time, automakers with far more experience still have launch issues, what makes you think Tesla will be better in less time?
The rapid ramp-up and hard deadlines are scary and for good reason. They're overly ambitious. Any engineer knows that when asked how long it'll take to complete a task, you make your estimate, then add 20%. Elon subtracted 20%. Everybody involved in the production of this car is running ragged and somehow you think the finished product will be perfect? This is a recipe for disaster.
With the recent news of the Model S delivered with the damaged, painted over a-pillar (a vehicle that has been in production for almost 5 years now), sure makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Look, you can believe what you want, I would be skeptical too. I browse the forums, only post if I feel I have some pertinent information to share. I'm vague because even if this information was shared openly with me and its public knowledge is not an issue, I don't want that person to somehow be reprimanded.
May be the issue will be fixed in 3 months, I have no idea, they weren't confident either way. I can say the sentiment seemed to be that internally this schedule is certainly rushed.
I have a March 31 Model 3 reservation so trust me I would love my car sooner rather than later. Maybe they end up figuring out these issues on time and then you can discredit my post. I'll be happy with that outcome as I'll be driving Hwy 1 in my blue Model 3 this year.
May be the issue will be fixed in 3 months, I have no idea, they weren't confident either way. I can say the sentiment seemed to be that internally this schedule is certainly rushed.
I have a March 31 Model 3 reservation so trust me I would love my car sooner rather than later. Maybe they end up figuring out these issues on time and then you can discredit my post. I'll be happy with that outcome as I'll be driving Hwy 1 in my blue Model 3 this year.
You do not need to worry because you shared no information, just a completely abstract assertion. I have no idea if you are real or not, but if you are you need to understand that this forum tends to want information. If there is a problem as you say, many people will know and you source will not need to fear recrimination. if not, that is another story.
Assuming you are serious:
Almost regardless, at this point in the production process vehicles are subjected to rigorous testing precisely to find defects in design, parts specifications, supplier performance and myriad other factors. They also test to establish precise and dependable performance, actual crash performance characteristics, severe weather, harsh road condition capabilities and on and on.
After decades of experience with such testing I have never heard of nor seen any case in which testing did not yield changes in design, component specifications and production processes.
So, whatever this could be, it is most unlikely to be anything consequential from a production perspective. Unlikely but not impossible.
There are at least a half dozen people on this board who've worked on such programs. Although I have decades of participation in such programs I am not an engineer nor industrial process control expert. Thus, others know more than do I. To my knowledge alternative suppliers of major parts can frequently be found in extremely short times, much shorter than normally imagined. Of course that costs, and produces air freighting heavy items normally shipped at sea. There are always solutions unless the basic design is defective. For the Model 3 that would have long ago been evident.
Not at all. In fact I would argue that it would be hard to believe if there are no show stopper issues at this time, given how this was rushed.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
Luckily, as far as I know, the majority of drivetrain is made in house so engineering changes should be smooth.
jelloslug
Active Member
Your statement is exactly why I don't believe it. That post is right here on this forum and you got it wrong. Not only did you get it wrong, you added your two cents to the wrong statement and made it even worse.
eye.surgeon
Active Member
There have been two threads today, both started by forum unknowns, both claiming to have damaging insider information about Tesla.
The OP here lacks the forum credibility to take him seriously.
The OP here lacks the forum credibility to take him seriously.
Problem is, Tesla decided to skip the bulk of the real world testing because apparently a 10-year-old company who has only (poorly) launched two cars has better design software and analytical techniques than 100-year-old car manufacturers.
There are always issues in the design that require overhauls and changes. But to wait until 3 months before launch to do any real world testing? How can you possibly rigorously test a car for longevity in such a short period of time? If Model 3 is not a reliable car, this could explode in Tesla's face. I would be more comfortable if they just sped up the Model S manufacturing process a bit, but they created brand new machines and processes to build a car with a brand new design, and think 3 months is enough time to make perfect cars? Holy crap.
Because anyone with a half a message read on TMC forums knows that posting alleged negative information results in being called a short, no matter how real the information may be.
It happened to the legendary Eds who was right and had insider info on Model X woes, but was lambasted mercilessly.
@ZeApelido can certainly have false information or be lying. But we do not know that.
I have no inside information. I don't know anyone who works at Tesla. The closest I come to inside information is that I drive past the Fremont factory on a regularly basis. Nonetheless, based on Tesla's past performance (and current quality issues), it is a safe bet to state that there will be one or more serious problems with the Model 3 when it starts production. Identifying that/those issues, specifically, is what it takes to prove that you know something, rather than suspect something (and then, only in retrospect).
Yes, and I said 'almost' to cover that. 'Eds' - whoever that is; and do you actually know he had supposed insider info? Surely you don't say that just because he was 'right'. But you're right, in this case there's no way to know, so really it's best to ignore stuff like this.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I'll start to worry if later on this year I start hearing stories of Tesla employees having to be towed in the South Bay going to and from work.
But not before then.
But not before then.
I'm of the opinion that events vindicated Eds - there is no need to go any further than the one tidbit that really was telling of insider info: he knew of the hydraulic to electric falcon wing door change (again something people said was impossible because Tesla would "never use hydraulic") before it was ever mentioned. This change from hydraulic to electric was confirmed by Elon several months later and was also later seen in prototype vs. production photographs. Eds knew.
It was widely concluded later that Eds worked for a Tesla contractor. Before that it was widely concluded Eds was a short...
Everyone is of course free to do with the info whatever they like. I choose to factor it into my armchair analysis with the risk factors I assign it based on my experience.
strykeroz
Member
Shouldn't we be more astonished if there aren't any significant issues discovered in the first batch of a product newly designed complex product? I'd go further - I'd be suspicious they weren't testing thoroughly enough if there weren't.
