[Rumor] Significant Engineering Issues with Model 3

[macpacheco]

If the post is precisely true, it means nothing bad at all. But not great news either.
Its not by accident that Tesla will begin M3 production at low volume and deliver only to employees.
This gives them an all hands on deck massive quality control opportunity with several hundred cars being driven by people that hopefully have Tesla's best interests at heart. And are far more tolerant of problems than average customers.
Real production for real customers begin perhaps 2 months later. This gives Tesla some 6 months from now to iron out all the bugs (starting with already made RC cars) and ensure they can deliver cars without any issues that would require recalls or mass reworking.
Tesla will have a problem if they deliver several thousands of cars with problems that will require them all to be fixed in service centers.
So far everything I heard from Tesla makes it quite clear they plan on having zero such problems.
Some issues can only be found once early mass production starts.
This won't be the last issue Tesla will find with Model 3s. Totally expected.
If this happened in August, I would be concerned.
Nothing to see, move along.

 

[jbcarioca]

I'm waiting to read from OP why he thought it important to post what can only be read by others as rumor or hearsay at best, or trash-talk from a stock short

Who knows? Either way we all are discussing relevant issues.

The serious questions all seem to relate to why Model 3 is different than all other cars, and why this launch is superior. ( my apologies, it is Passover, isn't it?)
The original Model 3 design included a roof inserted at the end of production, enabling much more robotic interior assembly than has previously been done. That, among other things, changes the testing sequence to vastly increase the affirmative right/wrong and decrease the gradations common in typical new car testing sequences.

The preceding is true. The questions mostly relate to ensuring that the robotics are working as they should. Then there are all those suppliers. The Model 3 suppliers have had an unusually long time to prepare. Not too much about Model 3 seems to be technologically unprecedented other than the actual production process. IMHO they seem ahead of schedule with few major glitches.

Were this a major problem in any respect we would be hearing about it one way or another. We aren't apart from vague unsubstantiated opinions. Unless there is evidence otherwise I think all is well.

 

[houdini]

I talked to some folks recently who gave some insight into the current state of the Model 3.

Most worryingly is some very important components are currently being produced with high failure rates. This is due to design changes (vs Model S) to make manufacturing more economical. Those involved are not showing high confidence that these problems will definitely be solved on time.
.

I talked to some folks and they've now said the component problems have been solved. What a relief.

 

[timk225]

For the amount of money my Model 3 is going to cost me, all I am asking for is total perfection when it is delivered.

And if it has problems, Tesla can give me a Model S loaner, FREE OF CHARGE, while my 3 has the defective parts replaced.

 

[Beckler]

I talked to some folks and they've now said the component problems have been solved. What a relief.

Did these folks know the original folks? In any case they're good folk, these tesla insider-knowledge folks; as are the folks who come on here and share what they heard from other folks - such generous folks. And so giving that they'd come on here and volunteer their time to provide this valuable knowledge. Great folk.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I for one applaud any poster who can share potential Tesla insight. For those who consider such tidbits of limited value, I offer the opinion that most of the posts on an owner/user/investor forum are of limited value. Some posts are even more subjective, for example, completely pointless from a wider perspective (for example, posts gushing Model 3 expectations are usually quite useless for anyone else) - yet useful for some smaller perspective (e.g. user community sentiment matters and can be informative).

The value is created by the living and breathing whole that this kind of community is. Potential insider information is certainly a useful part of that whole. Not necessarily alone, by itself, in itself, but as a part of the whole.

Let's be honest. Many people are annoyed by posts like this for fears of hurting their TSLA investment, not necessarily because they think it is wrong.

 

[disagree]

For the amount of money my Model 3 is going to cost me, all I am asking for is total perfection when it is delivered.

And if it has problems, Tesla can give me a Model S loaner, FREE OF CHARGE, while my 3 has the defective parts replaced.

Uh oh.

 

[bonnie]

Let's be honest. Many people are annoyed by posts like this for fears of hurting their TSLA investment, not necessarily because they think it is wrong.

I would not presume to speak for others, but as for myself, no, I personally am not annoyed because of fears of hurting my investment. In fact, there are always buy opportunities when there is a stumble. And then stock recovers.

I'm annoyed because someone drops a rumor on the forum, purporting to *know* insider information. The unnecessary drama annoys me with lack of source. Speculation becomes reality for some. (Just see the threads about no HUD, as an example.)

Honestly, I would expect there are issues right now that are getting resolved. Telling us that is just a bit of drama. If there were no issues, then Model 3 would be released early.

Is it going to be late? I don't know. I do know Elon's timeline is always aggressive, so I'd expect some delay.

 

[electracity]

Why is this so hard to believe? I know we all want our cars now and believe Tesla to be infallible, but think about it. Tesla has designed and tooled up for this car faster than any other car in history. They're doing things in one year that industry veterans say will take two. Tesla claims they don't need to test their cars because of "advanced analytical techniques", whatever that means. Test drivers during the reveal have said they won't be able to implement features because they don't have enough time.

Everything about the Model 3 launch screams RUSH RUSH RUSH. Even when taking their sweet time, automakers with far more experience still have launch issues, what makes you think Tesla will be better in less time?

The rapid ramp-up and hard deadlines are scary and for good reason. They're overly ambitious. Any engineer knows that when asked how long it'll take to complete a task, you make your estimate, then add 20%. Elon subtracted 20%. Everybody involved in the production of this car is running ragged and somehow you think the finished product will be perfect? This is a recipe for disaster.

The reality of the model 3 is that the employee cars are the late test cars. Elon faked the launched the model X. This is a more sophisticated version of the fake launch.

A thousands cars in employees hands gives Tesla a million miles a month of testing.

The big problem with this approach, as opposed to a 2018 launch, is killing model S sales. Otherwise it seems reasonable. They won't ramp until they have many millions of miles driven and are reasonably comfortable with the results of the employee miles.

Doing major rework on a thousand Fremont employee cars is way better than having 50K customer cars with major problems.

 

[Nikxice]

No opinion on whether the OP is a short, but starting this thread probably got the desired result, some notice. Perhaps not intentional, the OP takes an unsubstantiated shot at Tesla, while also disrespecting any alleged employee friends.

Within a couple of months of production, I imagine every car maker has some parts and manufacturing issues to contend with. No smoking gun here, can't see anything productive coming from the original post.

I continue to be amazed by the thousands of Tesla employees who don't participate in idle speculation outside of work. Despite this large number, fewer leaks than a Trump White House. Great job!

 

[ohmman]

Mod note: added [Rumor] tag to title.

 

[strykeroz]

I continue to be amazed by the thousands of Tesla employees who don't participate in idle speculation outside of work.

+1 to that. Unlike other technology houses where miniature or pocket devices are developed I also expect much of the R&D that's done on new product there to be quite visible to far more employees too.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'm annoyed because someone drops a rumor on the forum, purporting to *know* insider information. The unnecessary drama annoys me with lack of source. Speculation becomes reality for some. (Just see the threads about no HUD, as an example.)

For better and for worse, TMC has become the new "MacRumors" because Apple has become boring.

I've seen threads like this (and the HUD threads) for years on MacRumors. Someone posts an unsubstantiated rumor about unsatisfactory prototype components in the next iPhone, or insufficient volume of components, and half the forum freaks out that they won't get a new iPhone or that Samsung is taking over. This is months before the new phone is even announced.

And spy photos of leaked iPhone components result in the same: "so ugly" complaints, "losing to Samsung" blah blah. One can go back to mid-2012 to find threads of people posting despondently that leaked iPhone 5 exteriors were so ugly... and 5 years later that same exterior is still used in the unexpectedly popular iPhone SE.

Frankly I'd be very surprised if Model 3 didn't have problems that still needed to be solved.

A July 2017 launch is a full year ahead of when I thought Model 3 would start shipping.

 

[azred]

I talked to some folks recently who gave some insight into the current state of the Model 3.

Most worryingly is some very important components are currently being produced with high failure rates. This is due to design changes (vs Model S) to make manufacturing more economical. Those involved are not showing high confidence that these problems will definitely be solved on time.

More positive news is that the internal goal is still July to begin production, although at a lower rate that stated elsewhere (<100 / wk).

Overall I have concerns that they will be on time with a reliable product. I am a fan/investor so I am not rooting for this, but wanted to let you know what I heard.

Short people got no reason
Short people got no reason
Short people got no reason
To live

They got little hands
And little eyes
And they walk around
Tellin' great big lies

 

[Trips]

From the beginning Elon did not think that July 2017 was possible and only said that they will start in late 2017. When I was standing in line I was hoping for around mid to late 2018 for mine.

Some Elon quotes from last year.
“I’m sure this will leak — it’s hard to keep a secret, the date we are setting internally, and externally with suppliers, for the Model 3, is “July 1 next year.”

“The July 1 date is not a date that will actually be met.”
“an impossible date.”
“unavoidable”

“Now is a good time to place your reservation [for a Model 3]: if you place your order now, there is a high probability you actually receive your car in 2018.” - May 2016

 

[JeffK]

From the beginning Elon did not think that July 2017 was possible and only said that they will start in late 2017. When I was standing in line I was hoping for around mid to late 2018 for mine.

Some Elon quotes from last year.
“I’m sure this will leak — it’s hard to keep a secret, the date we are setting internally, and externally with suppliers, for the Model 3, is “July 1 next year.”

“The July 1 date is not a date that will actually be met.”
“an impossible date.”
“unavoidable”

“Now is a good time to place your reservation [for a Model 3]: if you place your order now, there is a high probability you actually receive your car in 2018.” - May 2016

You should note in May was after over 373k reservations.

 

[SageBrush]

Honestly, I would expect there are issues right now that are getting resolved. Telling us that is just a bit of drama. If there were no issues, then Model 3 would be released early.

Is it going to be late? I don't know. I do know Elon's timeline is always aggressive, so I'd expect some delay.

If Elon had kept to his timeline from the first reveal, we would all be saying that the Model 3 is 'on time' if cars rolled off the production lines for consumers before 2018. His decision to VERY publicly advance the timeline to July just last month argues strongly against important components failing a basic test in large numbers.

Some rumors are just FUD and trash-talk, or shorts trying to manipulate the market. Others are true because it is impossible to be wrong all the time. Very occasionally, a Tesla factoid leaks out without context.

Yawwwwnnnnn

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I talked to some folks recently who gave some insight into the current state of the Model 3.

Most worryingly is some very important components are currently being produced with high failure rates. This is due to design changes (vs Model S) to make manufacturing more economical. Those involved are not showing high confidence that these problems will definitely be solved on time.

More positive news is that the internal goal is still July to begin production, although at a lower rate that stated elsewhere (<100 / wk).

Overall I have concerns that they will be on time with a reliable product. I am a fan/investor so I am not rooting for this, but wanted to let you know what I heard.

LOL, so you waited all the way until your 7th post to out yourself as a "short" who's had a bad few weeks.


I would like to commend you for your remarkable restraint.

 

[Electroman]

LOL, so you waited all the way until your 7th post to out yourself as a "short" who's had a bad few weeks.

where did the OP out himself as 'short' ?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

where did the OP out himself as 'short' ?

Why else would someone come on here to tell us the sky is falling? during a week when the stock closes at a new All Time High every day?