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Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
Back in the olden Model X waiting days, I used to do these summaries of the then-current rumor analysis e.g. here. I thought in the honor of our leaving resident hacker @verygreen - who is still among us Tesla owners for a while - I'd collect the latest one in a summary form for Model S/X. :) This one is dedicated to you Green, with the first three bullets being almost entirely thanks to you. We salute you and wish for your speedy return into Tesla ownership.

1. Blind-spot cameras in AP2/2.5 cars. On the Autonomous Vehicles sub-forum (highly recommended!) @verygreen has been reporting on the maturing on neural networks in this area and now of the fact that the cars seem to have started calibrating the side repeater cameras ostensibly for this purpose (and the EAP auto-lane changes that were expected for December 2016), see e.g. here. I must also thank @lunitiks for elaborating on this data on those threads.

img_20171228_104858-2-png.269414


2. Rain-sensing wipers in AP2/2.5 cars. Elon Musk recently said on Twitter these were coming soon. While Elon's word is not worth that much IMO there are reasons to believe he may be more accurate this time around. Again, @verygreen has provided excellent details into the rain-sensing neural networks in our cars already today here, here and here. Also, much more reading on the neural network progress and speculation here thanks to @jimmy_d.

3. Level 3 in AP2/2.5 cars. What we first jokingly said was Tesla trolling @verygreen, it seems the Level 3 status on AP2 firmware isn't going away. FWIW, there is now a Level 3 "on or off" status inside AP2 firmware, see e.g. here and here. There is also a "follow-nav-route-enabled" there, suggesting progress on the freeway-to-freeway transitioning (again promised for EAP, expected December 2016).

Code:
{
    "snapshot-version": "0.3",
    "wall-time": "1514481823122435140",
    "monotonic-time": "7905225365516",
    "sha1": "3bd9f6d0826a4cb6",
    "requester": "snapshot--trip-log",
    "faux-board-id": "6f4e4f6e-f9d1-4c82-9853-2df2564c0242",
    "request-clock-type": "monotonic",
    "request-trigger-time": "7905224275628",
    "boot-sec-info": "0x00000012",
    "is_eng": "false",
    "vehicle-type": "MX-LHD",
    "hardware-type": "HW2",
    "product-release": "2017.50.2 (develop-2017.50.2-167-3bd9f6d082)",
    "uptime": "7906",
    "level3-enabled": "0",
    "follow-nav-route-enabled": "0",
    "trip-id": "b9e96f83-9f75-4bcf-a75a-9d58847d1840",
    "trip-record-seq": "14",
    "snapshot-id": "b9e96f83-9f75-4bcf-a75a-9d58847d1840-0014",
    "cameras": {
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            "pixel_format": "RAW12_NVIDIA",
            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "narrow": {
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            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "fisheye": {
            "pixel_format": "RAW12_NVIDIA",
            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "leftpillar": {
            "pixel_format": "RAW12_NVIDIA",
            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "rightpillar": {
            "pixel_format": "RAW12_NVIDIA",
            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "leftrepeater": {
            "pixel_format": "RAW12_NVIDIA",
            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "rightrepeater": {
            "pixel_format": "RAW12_NVIDIA",
            "color_filter": "RCCC",
            "width": "1280",
            "height": "960"
        },
        "backup": {
            "pixel_format": "UYVY",
            "color_filter": "RGGB",
            "width": "1160",
            "height": "720"
        }
    },
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                    "SPEED_10_TO_15_MPS": "0",
                    "SPEED_15_TO_20_MPS": "27",
                    "SPEED_20_TO_25_MPS": "25",
                    "SPEED_25_TO_30_MPS": "280",
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                    "CURVE_RADIUS_500_TO_1000_M": "8",
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                    "CURVE_RADIUS_100000_OR_ABOVE_M": "19",
                    "GPS_FUSION_OFF_S": "0",
                    "GPS_FUSION_ON_S": "333",
                    "GPS_FIX_OFF_S": "0",
                    "GPS_FIX_ON_S": "333",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_0_TO_3_S": "0",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_4_TO_7_S": "0",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_8_TO_12_S": "0",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_13_AND_UP_S": "333",
                    "CELL_NOT_CONNECTED_S": "0",
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                },
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                    "SPEED_NEGATIVE_MPS": "10",
                    "SPEED_0_TO_5_MPS": "218",
                    "SPEED_5_TO_10_MPS": "64",
                    "SPEED_10_TO_15_MPS": "57",
                    "SPEED_15_TO_20_MPS": "33",
                    "SPEED_20_TO_25_MPS": "31",
                    "SPEED_25_TO_30_MPS": "45",
                    "SPEED_30_TO_35_MPS": "78",
                    "SPEED_35_TO_40_MPS": "0",
                    "SPEED_40_TO_45_MPS": "0",
                    "SPEED_45_TO_50_MPS": "0",
                    "SPEED_50_OR_ABOVE_MPS": "0",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_UNKNOWN": "427",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_0_TO_100_M": "15",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_100_TO_250_M": "43",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_250_TO_500_M": "75",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_500_TO_1000_M": "49",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_1000_TO_2000_M": "29",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_2000_TO_5000_M": "107",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_5000_TO_10000_M": "46",
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                    "CURVE_RADIUS_100000_OR_ABOVE_M": "7",
                    "GPS_FUSION_OFF_S": "0",
                    "GPS_FUSION_ON_S": "832",
                    "GPS_FIX_OFF_S": "0",
                    "GPS_FIX_ON_S": "832",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_0_TO_3_S": "0",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_4_TO_7_S": "0",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_8_TO_12_S": "0",
                    "SATELLITE_RANGE_13_AND_UP_S": "832",
                    "CELL_NOT_CONNECTED_S": "0",
                    "CELL_CONNECTED_S": "832"
                }
            },
            "odometry_m": {
                "autosteer_on": {
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "7691.074219",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0.000000",
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "0.000000",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "0.000000",
                    "SPEED_UNKNOWN": "0.000000",
                    "SPEED_NEGATIVE_MPS": "0.000000",
                    "SPEED_0_TO_5_MPS": "0.000000",
                    "SPEED_5_TO_10_MPS": "0.000000",
                    "SPEED_10_TO_15_MPS": "0.000000",
                    "SPEED_15_TO_20_MPS": "538.949219",
                    "SPEED_20_TO_25_MPS": "556.847656",
                    "SPEED_25_TO_30_MPS": "7579.171875",
                    "SPEED_30_TO_35_MPS": "0.000000",
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                    "CURVE_RADIUS_UNKNOWN": "17.839844",
                    "CURVE_RADIUS_0_TO_100_M": "3.960938",
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            "HK_TW_RESTRICTED": {
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                }
            },
            "CAM_MSG_MIA": {
                "time_s": {
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                }
            },
            "EAC_REQUEST_TIMEOUT": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "0",
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                }
            },
            "USER_STRIKEOUT": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
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                },
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                }
            },
            "ME_MAIN_STATE_NOT_VISION": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
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                }
            },
            "CONTROL_OUTSIDE_LIMITS": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "17",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "5",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "13",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "13"
                },
                "odometry_m": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "46.898438",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "1.164062",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0.000000",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "171.664062",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "156.082031",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "13.539062",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "27.335938"
                }
            },
            "CONTROL_PATH_UNHEALTHY": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "10",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "0",
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                },
                "odometry_m": {
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "15.132812",
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                }
            },
            "CONTROL_SOLVER_UNHEALTHY": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "2",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
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                },
                "odometry_m": {
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "29.960938"
                }
            },
            "SPEED_LIMIT_EXCEEDED": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "0",
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                },
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            },
            "NOT_ON_HIGHWAY": {
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                }
            },
            "VEHICLE_SPEED_ABOVE_MAX_HYST": {
                "time_s": {
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
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            },
            "ROAD_ESTIMATOR_NOT_ALLOWED": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "9",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_2": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "5",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "0",
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                },
                "odometry_m": {
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "23.804688",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "0.000000",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "41.289062"
                }
            },
            "DRIVE_ON_MAPS_NOT_ALLOWED": {
                "time_s": {
                    "ROAD_CLASS_UNKNOWN": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_1": "0",2
                    "ROAD_CLASS_3": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_4": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_5": "0",
                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "0"
                },
                "odometry_m": {
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                    "ROAD_CLASS_6": "0.000000"
                }
            }
        },
        "config": {
            "version": "1.2",
            "lc_enable": "true",
            "autopilot_car": "true",
            "radar_type": "bosch",
            "timezone": "America\/New_York",
            "ISO_country_code": "840"
        },
        "trip_log": "\/telemetry\/trip_log.pb"
    }
}

4. Big battery. Looking beyond current car features and firmware hacking, there is the rumor of 130 kWh battery being tested in Model S or X with the speculation following that 21-70 cells might fit in the current pack dimensions in that configuration (see. e.g. 200 kWh new Roadster in a Model 3 sized car). There was also the past-year incident of 75 kWh cars shipping with 85 kWh, which might point to a plan boosting Model S/X battery sizes in general. Given the Gigafactory woes related to Model 3 21-70 batteries, In a curious case of potential trolling, a "P100D" Model 3 also appeared on TeslaFi recently. In the end that was merely a human cock-up, reminding us to keep on our rumor-mongering toes. :)

5. Interior redesign/HUD. There is a rumor that a Model S/X interior redesign that will wow us will appear in Q2 unless delayed to Q3. Some Model 3 inspired design seems, including better interior storage and lighting seems expected, as well as the interior camera from Model 3. Also, in this and this thread I have presented the speculation why I think this interior update could include an augmented-reality heads-up display, given the history of Tesla's comments, augmented reality hires and business partnerships.

hud-jpg.267636


Any others I've missed/forgotten about?
 

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
Number 5 will of course also include the new faster Intel-based big screen computer that Model 3 has, finally retiring the old Tegra. Interesting to see how well Tesla will continue old Tegra support or will it go the way of the old Classic pre-AP Tesla where things quickly stopped improving in many ways...
 

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
verygreen reminded us of the dashcam feature:

I have no visibility into battery and interior/hud (though I know there is internal hud project, but no idea of the status).

the fsd (likely more like promised eap) features are likely to be finally coming relatively soon indeed, and probably to California first.
Why rain-sensing stuff not yet activated is a bit of a mystery, you'd think with NN included and all that, it would be there already.

Also don't forget the dashcam, traces of which were in the cid code for a some time now (keyword for voice activation: bookmark).
 

Boourns

Active Member
Mar 9, 2016
1,683
2,099
Dallas
I have no basis for this, but what do your all think about the new S having a 2 speed transmission? Seems like with the Mission E and (I think) new roadster both having transmissions it would make sense in the S.
 

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
I have no basis for this, but what do your all think about the new S having a 2 speed transmission? Seems like with the Mission E and (I think) new roadster both having transmissions it would make sense in the S.

Haven't heard anything to support that, but an interesting idea.
 

Chaserr

Hyperactive Hyperdrive
Sep 5, 2017
2,666
6,523
Logan
4 is a guarantee in the next 6 months. 2170 battery isn't waiting for production problems to go away, they'll probably be used on an updated S/X when the 18650 contract expires next year. There's 0% odds the 18650 contract gets renewed so the new cells will have to be adapted at that time.

Roadster's stated top speed pretty well demands a transmission of some sort, I don't know is S and X will get it though.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Rouget

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU

Zorg

Active Member
Oct 24, 2017
1,949
1,797
Fremont, ca
I thought I had seen that announced, but I may just be mistaken. I know the first original Roadsters did but they were locked in second gear.

Even if not announced, it seems, like @Chaserr said, that it would make sense given the top speed.

When they tried the 2 speed transmission on the original roadster, the gears lasted a couple thousand miles top, hence the 1 speed gearbox.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: AnxietyRanger

Chaserr

Hyperactive Hyperdrive
Sep 5, 2017
2,666
6,523
Logan
That was a supplier problem, not a problem with all transmissions. I have a feeling Tesla is now able to overcome that problem internally rather than being let down by a supplier that half-assed their order multiple times.

Remember, at that time when they told suppliers they needed a transmission, they were handed a light duty transmission because that's what the assumption was for EVs. Their first Roadster transmission didn't even last miles, let alone a few thousand! They were crapped on thoroughly, and the lesson wa sso tough Tesla has avoided them ever since... but the R200 seems to have solved that issue.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Rouget

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
2. Rain-sensing wipers in AP2/2.5 cars. Elon Musk recently said on Twitter these were coming soon. While Elon's word is not worth that much IMO there are reasons to believe he may be more accurate this time around. Again, @verygreen has provided excellent details into the rain-sensing neural networks in our cars already today here, here and here. Also, much more reading on the neural network progress and speculation here thanks to @jimmy_d.

Check 1... Also seems to match with @verygreen's code findings that at Tesla went for at least some level of manual adjustment instead of auto-sensing level of rain at this stage (see links quoted above). Earlier NN had auto-sensing for the heaviness of the rain too, later removed.

Looking closely, there seems to be some auto-adjustment going on beyond the manual controls, though - I wonder if it is algorithmic, e.g. how often the NN outputs rain, constantly or not, or NN doing it (some granularity of the output added back). Or could the wiper module be outputting their movement speed, i.e. slowed down by lots of rain?

In any case, very, very well done @verygreen.

2017.50.3.f3425a1 is out!

20180101_055954-jpg.270358


Edit: Edited to included more analysis above.
 
Last edited:

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
Let's add one more to the rumor summary:

6. The FSD coast-to-coast self-driving demo. As we recall, PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERS earlier predicted it would take until 2019 for the video, but Elon Musk is on record as saying while it could miss 2017 (it did), early 2018 is the plan. Now we hear PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERS is changing tune a bit to suggest the video route is being pieced together as we speak.
The sneaky Autopilot-mole 'PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER' over at Reddit now says:

Correct! A cross country road trip with no snow, no construction zones, and always staying on a major 2 lane interstate freeway (except exits for charging and hotels very close to the freeway). Lead cars do the scouting.

They are actually doing 2-3 hour segments of it now, as we speak, building up ultra detailed maps for the sake of the demo.

Source: from someone on the Autopilot team

Tesla Daily interviews MIT Autonomous Driving expert Lex Fridman • r/teslamotors

'notha' fire cracker by mr. "PM YOUR NIPS PAPER" (guy who claims he works/worked in teslas ap program) over @ reddit:
What? It is entirely expected. FSD won't be even demoed by Tesla until 2019.

I'm not talking a fake, remote control video like they have on the autopilot website. Yes, that demo was hacked together.

PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERS is of course contradicting himself/herself there, which suggests he/she may be one removed from the source (a friend working at a suitable place in Tesla?) and got his information belatedly. Assuming the account/info is not fake entirely. Thanks @lunitiks.
 
Last edited:

AnxietyRanger

Well-Known Member
Aug 22, 2014
9,408
7,978
EU
^ Actually, reading closer PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERS is not really necessarily in contradiction there at all. If we read the "FSD won't be even demoed by Tesla until 2019. I'm not talking a fake, remote control video like they have on the autopilot website. Yes, that demo was hacked together." as non-video FSD demo in 2019, then that may be separate from the 2018 video demo (i.e. free-wheeling FSD shown in 2019, a scripted coast-to-coast demo showin in 2018).
 

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