You start here: Time to crack her open and get inside the network for AP2 (but for best results don't write about your progress in the open on the forums, of course) and then contact me once you have your internal network access.
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Rumor summary: Blind-spot cameras, Rain sensing, Level 3, Big battery, Interior/HUD
- Thread starter AnxietyRanger
- Start date
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- Model S
What? Is the Model 3-drivetrain that much more efficient?
I haven't been paying too much attention to the 3 due to its size, but that is amazing if correct...
Anyway, I am silently hoping to strike the jackpot of a midlife facelift for the X combined with a new battery. If they start using more efficient motors as well that is simply awesome. I love my S, but I am starting to see some space issues now that my small boys are getting bigger
What? Is the Model 3-drivetrain that much more efficient?
I haven't been paying too much attention to the 3 due to its size, but that is amazing if correct...
Anyway, I am silently hoping to strike the jackpot of a midlife facelift for the X combined with a new battery. If they start using more efficient motors as well that is simply awesome. I love my S, but I am starting to see some space issues now that my small boys are getting bigger
The model 3 is that much more efficient. Most of it is due to lighter weight, smaller profile, and lower drag coefficient, but Tesla also went permanent magnet for the first time ever, and so it might well be a more efficient drivetrain as well.
True!! In fact, don’t post anything, don’t even hint about it. Or, do it with max op security so tesla can’t track you to your car...
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
^ I am anxious about the lack of Lidar in that car.
Also, no camera wipers.
Also, no camera wipers.
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Bright side of that car: the camera array is so big, no wipers at all are needed for the windshield.
I wonder what the story was with 75 kWh Model S's shippping with 85 kWh batteries as well as the "80P" battery filing:
Tesla starts delivering 85 kWh batteries software locked to 75Kwh in its cars
EPA documents reveal a Model S/X battery called the 80P pack • r/teslamotors
These 85 kWh 75's and "80P" would seem to be two different batteries?
The speculation that Model 3 "Long Range" is actually larger than 75 kWh battery could certainly fit - if so, Tesla might have had a motivation to consider shipping base Model S/X with a larger battery. Starting shipments first as software-locked 75's and then switching to 80/85 could have been a plan to handle the Model 3 launch with less Osborning. Obviously they ended up not stating the final Model 3 battery size at all, though?
EPA Rates ‘Long Range’ Model 3 at 334 Miles Per Charge
LR True Range -- Part I, Suppositions
Thoughts? What's going on with the base Model S/X battery size - and is Model 3 LR battery size at all related?
Tesla starts delivering 85 kWh batteries software locked to 75Kwh in its cars
EPA documents reveal a Model S/X battery called the 80P pack • r/teslamotors
These 85 kWh 75's and "80P" would seem to be two different batteries?
The speculation that Model 3 "Long Range" is actually larger than 75 kWh battery could certainly fit - if so, Tesla might have had a motivation to consider shipping base Model S/X with a larger battery. Starting shipments first as software-locked 75's and then switching to 80/85 could have been a plan to handle the Model 3 launch with less Osborning. Obviously they ended up not stating the final Model 3 battery size at all, though?
EPA Rates ‘Long Range’ Model 3 at 334 Miles Per Charge
LR True Range -- Part I, Suppositions
Thoughts? What's going on with the base Model S/X battery size - and is Model 3 LR battery size at all related?
btw I saw 18.4.1, it seems to add FEATURE_blindspotWarningEnabled flag, defaults to true, but not doing anything, still another addition into upcoming bling spot warnings coming soon theory.
Other notable additions: FEATURE_cameraEnabled and FEATURE_laneDepartureWarningEnabled
Other notable additions: FEATURE_cameraEnabled and FEATURE_laneDepartureWarningEnabled
My take on the latest comments from the Q4 earnings report/call as well as the PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER alleged insider on Reddit:
First of all, Elon bumped the "by the end of 2017", then "early 2018" coast-to-coast drive by additional 3 to 6 months, though not a definite 6 months, just 6 months on the outside which could be construed to mean a similar thing. So the next expectation for the coast-to-coast is within the next 3-6 months, Elon-time.
We have heard from the PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER source many alleged/rumored details (some quoted in this thread before, others discussed on the Autonomous Vehicles sub-forum) about this coast-to-coast drive and how it is made. IMO Elon's comments do jive with those, as do @verygreen's findings of coast-to-coast map routes appearing in the cars around the turn of the year. If we believe @verygreen as well as PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER, as well as the lack of autonomous reports for Tesla in 2017 in California, the conclusion IMO is that Tesla has been trying to make the coast-to-coast possibly since January and wished to get it done perhaps by the quarterly call, but couldn't make it.
Elon's comment about how they "could do the CTC drive now, but so much would have to be hard coded for the route that it wouldn’t work for anything but that route and be to brittle" actually sounds very much in line with PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER's earlier claims of how Tesla has been doing this (i.e. hardcoding much of this having to repaint lines at Superchargers) and how he/she claims Tesla did the original video as well. Why would Elon make such a comment, had they not tried it... Another Reddit rumor stated Tesla had gotten this method down to 30 disengagements at some point earlier this year, which again would seem to resonate with Elon's comment.
IMO the simple reading of Elon is simply that PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER is probably pretty much right and Elon was describing something they'd done, that was too brittle still and not the quality they wanted - and thus work was continuing and it would take longer. The cynic in me suggests had it worked out better, Tesla probably would have opted to release the hard-coded video anyway, but perhaps an optimist would say they chose against it because it would not be a representative demo. There are bound to be many opinions on this, of course. I have no judgement on that, we don't know.
I guess it also depends on whether you're an optimist or a cynic to speculate on what is happening right now: is Tesla trying to perfect the hard-coding and get it done, or are they advacing their HD mapping hoping it would get done through that, or ar they even pushing their attempts back in an effort to get an overall better FSD codebase on the road for a truly autonomous attempt given that whatever they currently had was too "brittle".
So, what's the status on FSD? I think Elon's and Tesla's focus on the new NN architecture time and time again is pretty telling. Whatever they had in 2016 didn't work out. I tend to believe PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER that even then the video was hard-coded (or as he/she puts it perhaps even remote controlled a bit), but Tesla probably had hopes that the NN they did have would work out sooner and better, and then it did not. Now they've gotten that basic NN stuff sorted out, but they are still a year behind on where they hoped overall they'd be, I speculate. They IMO probably didn't do FSD testing in California simply because they weren't ready to do it at the quality they'd like to show, not simply because their autonomous testing efforts happen to be elsewhere. It is also possibley EAP was their sole focus for most of the year anyway and FSD and the demo have been on a backburner...
Is PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER real? I think probably they do have a real source, whether themselves or an acquaintance I can not tell. Unlike some, I pay no attention to obfuscated personal details, PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER has admitted keeping them vague for the sake of privacy. This would fit with someone in an insider position, that in itself is no proof of falsehood. Even normal folks obfuscate personal details on the Internet. Staying private on the Internet requires measures to keep that privacy. I do find that PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERs has been posting things over the autumn that now match up with what Elon comments. The same happened with Eds years ago, when Elon suddenly confirmed his claim of hydraulic doors being cancelled (and many other things, like a delayed Model X ramp) - nobody believed Eds at the time... cue six months later, Elon confirms it.
I tend to believe PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER has a real source. Whether or not he/she is the source him/herself, I do not know. Whether or not his/her source can paint a realistic, complete and timely picture going forward, I have no idea. It is possible, as with all sources, their view is too obscured or limited to be able to do that.
Anyway, returning to the status of the FSD: As @BinaryField puts it, this comic seems fitting, though replace algorithms with NN. It was a harder nut to crack than they expected, but also they were a lot more behind than we expected in October 2016.
First of all, Elon bumped the "by the end of 2017", then "early 2018" coast-to-coast drive by additional 3 to 6 months, though not a definite 6 months, just 6 months on the outside which could be construed to mean a similar thing. So the next expectation for the coast-to-coast is within the next 3-6 months, Elon-time.
We have heard from the PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER source many alleged/rumored details (some quoted in this thread before, others discussed on the Autonomous Vehicles sub-forum) about this coast-to-coast drive and how it is made. IMO Elon's comments do jive with those, as do @verygreen's findings of coast-to-coast map routes appearing in the cars around the turn of the year. If we believe @verygreen as well as PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER, as well as the lack of autonomous reports for Tesla in 2017 in California, the conclusion IMO is that Tesla has been trying to make the coast-to-coast possibly since January and wished to get it done perhaps by the quarterly call, but couldn't make it.
Elon's comment about how they "could do the CTC drive now, but so much would have to be hard coded for the route that it wouldn’t work for anything but that route and be to brittle" actually sounds very much in line with PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER's earlier claims of how Tesla has been doing this (i.e. hardcoding much of this having to repaint lines at Superchargers) and how he/she claims Tesla did the original video as well. Why would Elon make such a comment, had they not tried it... Another Reddit rumor stated Tesla had gotten this method down to 30 disengagements at some point earlier this year, which again would seem to resonate with Elon's comment.
IMO the simple reading of Elon is simply that PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER is probably pretty much right and Elon was describing something they'd done, that was too brittle still and not the quality they wanted - and thus work was continuing and it would take longer. The cynic in me suggests had it worked out better, Tesla probably would have opted to release the hard-coded video anyway, but perhaps an optimist would say they chose against it because it would not be a representative demo. There are bound to be many opinions on this, of course. I have no judgement on that, we don't know.
I guess it also depends on whether you're an optimist or a cynic to speculate on what is happening right now: is Tesla trying to perfect the hard-coding and get it done, or are they advacing their HD mapping hoping it would get done through that, or ar they even pushing their attempts back in an effort to get an overall better FSD codebase on the road for a truly autonomous attempt given that whatever they currently had was too "brittle".
So, what's the status on FSD? I think Elon's and Tesla's focus on the new NN architecture time and time again is pretty telling. Whatever they had in 2016 didn't work out. I tend to believe PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER that even then the video was hard-coded (or as he/she puts it perhaps even remote controlled a bit), but Tesla probably had hopes that the NN they did have would work out sooner and better, and then it did not. Now they've gotten that basic NN stuff sorted out, but they are still a year behind on where they hoped overall they'd be, I speculate. They IMO probably didn't do FSD testing in California simply because they weren't ready to do it at the quality they'd like to show, not simply because their autonomous testing efforts happen to be elsewhere. It is also possibley EAP was their sole focus for most of the year anyway and FSD and the demo have been on a backburner...
Is PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER real? I think probably they do have a real source, whether themselves or an acquaintance I can not tell. Unlike some, I pay no attention to obfuscated personal details, PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER has admitted keeping them vague for the sake of privacy. This would fit with someone in an insider position, that in itself is no proof of falsehood. Even normal folks obfuscate personal details on the Internet. Staying private on the Internet requires measures to keep that privacy. I do find that PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPERs has been posting things over the autumn that now match up with what Elon comments. The same happened with Eds years ago, when Elon suddenly confirmed his claim of hydraulic doors being cancelled (and many other things, like a delayed Model X ramp) - nobody believed Eds at the time... cue six months later, Elon confirms it.
I tend to believe PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER has a real source. Whether or not he/she is the source him/herself, I do not know. Whether or not his/her source can paint a realistic, complete and timely picture going forward, I have no idea. It is possible, as with all sources, their view is too obscured or limited to be able to do that.
Anyway, returning to the status of the FSD: As @BinaryField puts it, this comic seems fitting, though replace algorithms with NN.
It was a harder nut to crack than they expected, but also they were a lot more behind than we expected in October 2016.
PM_YOUR_NIPS_PAPER said:
I liked the bit about the NN expanding as the fleet grows
Very good data points from @verygreen related to the rumor-watch on this thread. I am happy to see that despite his car being bought back by Tesla, he seems to still have access to firmwares for our reading pleasure.
About MCU or dash computer upgrade to Model S/X:
About AP2/2.5 "shadow mode":
About MCU or dash computer upgrade to Model S/X:
About AP2/2.5 "shadow mode":
lunitiks
Cool James & Black Teacher
Anyway, returning to the status of the FSD: As @BinaryField puts it, this comic seems fitting, though replace algorithms with NN.
Well, one important thing to remember here, is that neural nets aren't a new thing, or just used by Tesla. Neural nets are basically state of the art in many applications and nothing magical anymore.
There are forum posts from 2009 on stack overflow, where people discuss building a spam filter with a neural net, just for fun. Neural networks for email spam detection And even in 2009 NN wasn't really something only a handful of people used. Every speech recognition, image recognition and so on works with a NN. A very fun example:
Lyrebird - Create a digital copy of voice
I remember machine learning and AI being a thing back in the 90s and today they are used in a lot of applications. Every company invested in autonomous driving uses neural nets. So it wasn't like Tesla thought they could use NN to solve a problem others tried to solve differently.
There is a discussion of how much deep learning a car should do and where a human needs to step in and help. And depending on who you ask and when, the answer always changes. But they all use it. Otherwise it would be pretty impossible to get to any kind of autonomous driving.