Rumors - upcoming features, costs, etc.

[Joel]

Because Musk and company have said that Model X is going to be their first AWD car. Launching an AWD Model S prior to Model X would take the thunder away from Model X launch as well as cannibalizing sales before it even shipped. It won't happen. Wait and see. I'm usually right about these things.

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I'm not sure where you heard this, but all expectations are that the X will be priced about 5%-10% higher than the S.

Ampedrealtor is correct on the price. I do remember Elon stating it will be a higher price than S. I believed he announced this earlier this year or late last year when he was in Europe (if memory serves, it was Germany).

Ampedrealtor is wrong about AWD S. It will be out before X.

 

[dirkhh]

Wild speculation warning...
I'm thinking there won't be an X60. Too little range. So X85 and hopefully an X110...
So base price of an X85 about 90 with a well equipped performance model X110 in the 140s?

 

[AlMc]

Wild speculation warning...
I'm thinking there won't be an X60. Too little range. So X85 and hopefully an X110...
So base price of an X85 about 90 with a well equipped performance model X110 in the 140s?

I was thinking that AWD standard in the 'super S'...0-60 3.2-3.5 sec......commanding a big premium. Then AWD optional in an 85 and 65. ONLY way to get the 'performance' model is to take AWD, and maybe a 110 battery.....the margins on that may be too big for TM to pass up.

 

[dirkhh]

AIMc I think Tesla has started quite a few times now that ALL Model X will be AWD...
Or did I misunderstand and you are speculating about the AWD Model S?

 

[AlMc]

AIMc I think Tesla has started quite a few times now that ALL Model X will be AWD...
Or did I misunderstand and you are speculating about the AWD Model S?

I should have been more precise. Yes my post referred to the model S drivetrain/batt size options only.

 

[alexkiritz]

Wild speculation warning...
I'm thinking there won't be an X60. Too little range. So X85 and hopefully an X110...
So base price of an X85 about 90 with a well equipped performance model X110 in the 140s?

At best you're looking at a 9 kwh boost for $15-25k. A 110 kwh battery is not happening for at least 5 years.

 

[Canuck]

Wild speculation warning...
I'm thinking there won't be an X60. Too little range. So X85 and hopefully an X110...
So base price of an X85 about 90 with a well equipped performance model X110 in the 140s?

The problem is they are battery constrained. So putting out a 110 would use nearly twice the batteries of a 60. Until the gigafactory is under full production, and ground has not yet even been broken, I don't see any increase over the 60 and 85 for the Model X.

 

[dirkhh]

At best you're looking at a 9 kwh boost for $15-25k. A 110 kwh battery is not happening for at least 5 years.

Do you have a source for that statement?
Clearly the cost to Tesla is nowhere near that number. For the past two years the extra 25kWh from 60 to 85 were sold for $8k to the consumer. I see no hard evidence why an additional 25kWh couldn't be sold for a similar incremental price, especially since battery prices have dropped in these two years.

 

[breser]

Do you have a source for that statement?
Clearly the cost to Tesla is nowhere near that number. For the past two years the extra 25kWh from 60 to 85 were sold for $8k to the consumer. I see no hard evidence why an additional 25kWh couldn't be sold for a similar incremental price, especially since battery prices have dropped in these two years.

Worth pointing out that $8k includes the supercharger functionality that they charge $2k for separately. So it's more like $6k.

 

[dirkhh]

The problem is they are battery constrained. So putting out a 110 would use nearly twice the batteries of a 60. Until the gigafactory is under full production, and ground has not yet even been broken, I don't see any increase over the 60 and 85 for the Model X.

To quote from the Q2 shareholder letter: "Panasonic’s increased cell production capacity in Japan has begun to reduce this critical constraint on vehicle production." - actually, if you search for "constraint" in Teslas reporting you will see that they no longer claim to be battery constraint - instead they are talking about the need for the new manufacturing line to open to increase capacity without any caveat how battery availability might hamper them.
So I respectfully disagree. I assume that we will see a 400 mile pack for the Roadster as well as a 100 or 110kWh pack for the Model S and Model X - my guess would be for the 2015 production cars - or maybe together with the Model X launch. With the additional weight and wind resistance the Model X is likely to have at least 15-20% higher power consumption (compare a Mercedes E550 with an ML550 (and here both are AWD): 4.8 vs 6.2 gal/100miles -- BMW does better with 550i vs X5-50i at 5.0 vs 5.9 gal/100miles) and therefore 15-20% lower range. So an X85 would have a range of only 215-225 miles... I would be very surprised if that's what Tesla would release as their "top of the line" product.
Admittedly, I have no proof, no indication that that's what they'll do. But it appears very much logical and entirely doable to me.

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Worth pointing out that $8k includes the supercharger functionality that they charge $2k for separately. So it's more like $6k.

I thought it was $10k - $2k for the supercharging... yep, just confirmed that on the Tesla website.

 

[Canuck]

To quote from the Q2 shareholder letter: "Panasonic’s increased cell production capacity in Japan has begun to reduce this critical constraint on vehicle production."

I find shareholder letters are usually overly optimistic and as I read that sentence the key words are "has begun to reduce this critical constraint". So the word "constraint" is still there, and it's at a "critical" level, and if there is any reduction it only just "begun" yet the Model X is due out soon. So bigger batteries at this time seem out of the mix to me.

Having said this, I really hope you are right with your speculation, and I'm proven wrong with mine. It just seems that there's really good reason that the $6B gigafactory is needed, with battery constraint and reducing battery cost being the main ones.

 

[alexkiritz]

Do you have a source for that statement?
Clearly the cost to Tesla is nowhere near that number. For the past two years the extra 25kWh from 60 to 85 were sold for $8k to the consumer. I see no hard evidence why an additional 25kWh couldn't be sold for a similar incremental price, especially since battery prices have dropped in these two years.

1. Yes, they could make a higher capacity pack by making a bigger pack and achieve the price point you are asking for, but then it would not be swappable with the Model S pack and it would weigh more.

2. Tesla is totally reliant on Panasonic for their battery technology and Panasonic has no real competitors. There are other groups that have made prototypes of batteries with good specs, but they aren't capable of being put into production. Tesla is currently using a Panasonic NCR18650A cell derivative with many of the safety features removed. Panasonic charges twice as much for the NCR18650B (3.6 volt, 3.4 amp-hour) consumer electronics version of the cell as they charge for the NCR18650A (3.6 volt, 3.1 amp-hour). The NCR18650B weighs slightly more too. The cell that will likely be called the NCR18650C was announced to have specs of 3.4 volts and 4 amp-hours, but it also weighs 54 grams instead of 46 for the NCR18650B. That was five years ago and they are still figuring out how to manufacture the NCR18650C. Getting the gigafactory producing these cells, modified to Tesla specs and at a reasonable cost is going to take a long time. I doubt Tesla even has a full packs worth of the consumer version of these cells.

To get a 110 kwh Tesla battery pack would require not only using these cells that are 20% heavier, but would also require using more cells than are in the 85 kwh pack. The cells are not even in production for customers who will pay 5-10 times as much as Tesla.

I think the best you can expect is that 9% increase from upgrading to cells based on the NCR18650B. Maybe they are willing to pack cells more densely into the pack, but that doesn't seem particularly safe.

 

[breser]

Worth pointing out that $8k includes the supercharger functionality that they charge $2k for separately. So it's more like $6k.

I thought it was $10k - $2k for the supercharging... yep, just confirmed that on the Tesla website.

Ooops, yeah dirkhh already accounted for that $2k.

 

[dirkhh]

1. Yes, they could make a higher capacity pack by making a bigger pack and achieve the price point you are asking for, but then it would not be swappable with the Model S pack and it would weigh more.

2. Tesla is totally reliant on Panasonic for their battery technology and Panasonic has no real competitors. There are other groups that have made prototypes of batteries with good specs, but they aren't capable of being put into production. Tesla is currently using a Panasonic NCR18650A cell derivative with many of the safety features removed. Panasonic charges twice as much for the NCR18650B (3.6 volt, 3.4 amp-hour) consumer electronics version of the cell as they charge for the NCR18650A (3.6 volt, 3.1 amp-hour). The NCR18650B weighs slightly more too. The cell that will likely be called the NCR18650C was announced to have specs of 3.4 volts and 4 amp-hours, but it also weighs 54 grams instead of 46 for the NCR18650B. That was five years ago and they are still figuring out how to manufacture the NCR18650C. Getting the gigafactory producing these cells, modified to Tesla specs and at a reasonable cost is going to take a long time. I doubt Tesla even has a full packs worth of the consumer version of these cells.

To get a 110 kwh Tesla battery pack would require not only using these cells that are 20% heavier, but would also require using more cells than are in the 85 kwh pack. The cells are not even in production for customers who will pay 5-10 times as much as Tesla.

I think the best you can expect is that 9% increase from upgrading to cells based on the NCR18650B. Maybe they are willing to pack cells more densely into the pack, but that doesn't seem particularly safe.

Thanks for a well reasoned and convincing argument.

Hmm. I still think my rationale makes sense. So are there other ways to bump capacity, maybe at least up to 100kWh (20%) which would give us range parity?
Stacking them tighter, making the battery slightly thicker, something?

 

[AnOutsider]

Thanks for a well reasoned and convincing argument.

Hmm. I still think my rationale makes sense. So are there other ways to bump capacity, maybe at least up to 100kWh (20%) which would give us range parity?
Stacking them tighter, making the battery slightly thicker, something?

MIGHT be able to get away with a taller pack in a taller vehicle... The mechanics are beyond me though.

 

[tom66]

100kWh could be achieved with some additional modules in the front of the pack. Currently there are two modules stacked on each other (each module being ~5.3kWh) so 100kWh could be realised with three additional modules in the front of the pack. This would eat into cabin space. Things like the pedals would have to move up. I don't see it happening. Or perhaps it could work in the rear of the pack but I believe the charger units and contactor box fits there in the S, so that might be a problem.

Additional modules would also raise the pack series voltage to 475V from 400V maximum, which might be a problem for supercharging/on-board chargers, unless they changed the configuration of each module from 6 series to 5 series (96 vs 95 in series so terminal voltage essentially unchanged.) The 60kWh modules are different as it stands, so it wouldn't be too difficult for them to do this.

 

[wycolo]

Strength of X demand: When placeholders realise they are getting just a mini-van body attached to an MS platform they will think new thoughts.

Much less risky to add AWD now as a profitable option to Tesla's existing mature product. Make 10k of these at least before the X is released.
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[tom66]

One question - if they do introduce AWD, what happens to P85?
Does it get AWD as standard, or is there a P85 with and without? (Would it be significant enough to get an "AWD" badge?)

Lets say Tesla move up to 100kWh batteries, do they keep P85, or drop it and only have P100?

Will AWD be available on all of 60, 85 & 100kWh?

 

[dsm363]

To extract a premium they could start with only P85 and P85+ cars in AWD.

 

[dirkhh]

To extract a premium they could start with only P85 and P85+ cars in AWD.

There are so many ways to play this.
And different goals get you different best approaches.
Assuming I believe the AWD in Model S before Model X theory (which I don't)... one could argue that you'd want lots of exposure, lots of testing, so offer it in all cars.

But I'm more inclined to believe this comes after the Model X launch. So make only the P100 and P100+ available with AWD at a very hefty premium to increase margin.