I believe much of the problem could be avoided simply by using battery percentage on the display instead of range.
From reading this forum I have to say that I have concluded that these abrupt shutdowns tend to happen to people that use the mileage display rather than the % display but I don't think having them switch over to % is going to solve the problem unless they make the switch voluntarily because, in the course of driving their cars they have learned enough about them to appreciate that the % display is more telling about battery status.
I have been doing this for a long time now. It is my belief that percentage of battery left is a much more accurate figure than the estimated range left in many situations.
I put estimated range in bold because you are absolutely right about displayed range: (% + e1)/(W + e2) ~ %/W +e2*%/W + e1/W). But
rated range is just a fixed number multiplied by % and thus equally as accurate or inaccurate. This assumes that % = available kW/capacity and that the BMS doesn't decide that the battery capacity has changed.
When I first got my car (last December) I believe the energy displays gave one a choice of estimated range based on 5, 10 or 30 mile histories or rated range (fixed). Since then different firmware releases have, I believe, changed what is available. I was playing with one of them the other day and I noticed that the estimated charge at destination was jumping all over the place from moment to moment only to notice that it was based on instantaneous consumption. That is, to me, pretty useless information and I guess I can see how that might lead someone into trouble if he doesn't understand what the displays mean and I am pretty convinced at this point that many drivers do not. In any case I think part of the problem may be with shifting sands from Telsa's firmware folk.
Let's look at this gentleman's experience:
Ok, I've ran my MS100d out of charge, semi intentionally....
When I was about 35 KM outside Regina, my car showed 34 km remaining. Then it lit up like a Christmas tree with warning, and told me to pull over immediately as it was shutting down...
Were he showing % presumably his display would have indicates something like 7% remaining were it based on rated miles. Were the displayed 34 km based on an instantaneous consumption calculated during a down hill run the the remaining range estimate could have been higher. Yesterday, for example, I saw consumption of -146 Wh/mi for a short trip (all downhill) and based on that my range was infinite. But I don't think the little battery icon in front of the driver displays anything other than
rated range remaining.
Oh, and I needed to force open the charge port because the computers were off, and wouldn't power up until it was charged. The door is easy to open, but I needed to use a business card as a shoe horn to get the charge cable inserted, because the lock didn't retract either
Now I wonder if this is a clue. When SoC gets low the car stops charging the 12 V battery. It is not, according to the manual for my X, supposed to do this until 0% SoC is approached but inability to get the charge port open is indicative of a discharged or failed 12 V battery. I wonder if what some of these people has seen is not discharge of the main battery but rather discharge of the 12 V battery.
...also try not to let it get below 10% if at all possible.
I think that's good advice. Remember that determining available remaining charge in a Li ion battery is tricky because terminal voltage does not change that much with charge level. The BMS has to be constantly recalibrating itself to come up with estimates as good as it does. But you can be sure that it will shut the car down if it detects dangerously low voltage even if its present charge estimate is relatively high. Clearly, below 10% you are sailing pretty close to the wind.
Also, as mentioned above, using the nav app in the car is invaluable as it constantly predicts how much percentage you will have at your destination. If it starts to creep down below 10%, either drive more conservatively or plan another charging stop.
I believe the cause of the "problem" is that people don't use the energy displays. If you have "the knack" you don't need them (except to back up your estimates) but if you don't you really do.