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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Herr Putler: NEIN, no retreat, no surrender.
Russia Says Forces Withdrawn From Eastern Ukraine's Lyman
The Russian Defense Ministry says it has withdrawn its troops from the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman, hours after Kyiv said it had surrounded Russian forces there and a day after Moscow said it was annexing the surrounding Donetsk region.
www.rferl.org
@GWord are you able to provide any further insight into this story, from #301-303 please ?
Energy Sector News
It will be interesting to see how well this story stands up .... bearing in mind the underlying origin seems to be zerohedge .... (Whether there is a knock-on financial effect is undisputed. The real issue is whether physical cargo is getting sold through from Russia to Europe.)...teslamotorsclub.com
I would have to do a couple days of modeling to really answer definitively but I can give my initial impression.
I’m not sure I agree that China is doing something nefarious. I don’t think there are any significant nat gas or LNG sanctions being applied by Europe. This means that marketers of Russian cargos are free to sell to Europe at market rates already. This also limits the negotiating power that non sanctions countries may have to get Russian gas at a discount. Earlier in September some of the Chines import terminals were offline due to typhoon damage. This may have reduced their ability to to import, and resulted in cargo diversions. Additionally the author may be misunderstanding a feature of the LNG shipping industry which is that diversions regularly happen as part of an efficient and liquid system and the molecules you bought may not be the actual ones you receive due to market optimization. Chinese importers will almost certainly have at least some contractual rights to divert their cargos as part of their normal course of business. If the Chinese (or any other LNG cargo owner) doesn’t need the molecules at the moment, they are going to go after the best netback they can get (i.e. best pricing minus transportation cost). That may very well be Europe if other Asian import markets are already supplied, and especially so if the cargos are originating from Yamal and already have to pass by Europe. So again, I feel like I’m seeing explainable market dynamics rather than an attempt to obfuscate cargo origin.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Thank you very much. Don't feel under any pressure to do modelling. That insight is plenty. Regards.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
X Fan
Active Member
War sucks. Too many young people die before their time.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Russia’s Gazprom has suspended gas deliveries to Italy’s Eni, blaming a transport problem in Austria, AFP reports.
The Italian energy giant said on Saturday:
Source = Guardian
The Italian energy giant said on Saturday:
Before the war in Ukraine, nearly 45% of Italy’s imported gas came from Russia. Most of the gas from Russia to Italy passes through Ukraine via the Trans Austria Gas Pipeline.
Source = Guardian
Haven’t seen how many POWs total, but appears number was significant.
navguy12
Active Member
Just thinking out loud: if Russia cuts off energy to “a NATO country” for the express purpose of trying to blackmail that country to end support for sanctions AND one citizen in that country dies from a consequence of the missing energy (freezing in the dark), why is that not considered an attack on a NATO country?
petit_bateau
Active Member
No. It is a commercial matter to choose not to supply and the consequences would depend on the contract clauses. Most contracts would treat elective non supply as being something the supplier should make good the consequences of. So the higher the price of tge alternative gas that the client buys in, the faster the supplier goes bankrupt.
I've owned a gas contract once where we could not meet the supply committment. Our decision was to buy from a competitor to meet the clients need as we had greater buying power than rye client.
In these circumstances the higher the gas price the faster the supplier goes bankrupt.
That is why Gaxprom always claim that someone else is at fault so they can invoke force majeure and/or shift liability to another party.
Putin etc know they will be dead before all this is unravelled in court.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Pretty sure it doesn't meet the definition of an attack, per Article 5 of the NATO charter. There are some pretty specific criteria there, and they can't just be redefined on the fly. This would likely fall under "trade dispute", which is not considered an attack.
Defenestration (from Modern Latin fenestra[1]) is the act of throwing someone or something out of a window.[2]
Learned something new today. This is a common reason in the distant past to start wars. Maybe it will end the current one. Defenestrate Putin!
Learned something new today. This is a common reason in the distant past to start wars. Maybe it will end the current one. Defenestrate Putin!
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Here's hoping it doesn't take this long and that a new regime is at least significantly better than the current one...
Putin could 'escape' within months, says former Russian PM
A former Russian prime minister believes Vladimir Putin may step down from his role and "escape" within months. /.../
"In three or four months I believe there will be a crucial change," Mr Kasyanov told Sky News.
Source:
Russia-Ukraine latest: Europe in a 'pre-war era'; Russia launches 12 drones into Ukraine
Europe is currently in a "pre-war" era, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said. Meanwhile, Russia fired four missiles and 12 Shahed drones into eastern Ukraine overnight, Ukraine's air force reports.news.sky.com
Hitler gave a lot of stand firm orders when commanders wanted to pull back to a more defensible position. The order almost always resulted in unnecessary casualties and weakened the German forces.
For someone on the offense with sufficient forces a stand firm order is a gift.
A near real time account from someone fighting around Kreminna. This is a day old now (warning some of the descriptions are graphic)
“its a slaughter”
What this guy may be engaging is not troops trying to escape Lyman, but "reinforcements" who just arrived from Russia, though it's also possible these are Lyman defenders trying to escape. If it is reinforcements the battle for Lyman could be turning into the Highway of Death from the Gulf War, though done with infantry rather than air power.
We need to send legions of PTSD resources to Ukraine as soon as the shooting stops. Neurofeedback is great for it, my partner treated a Vietnam vet with PTSD who had it so bad he had spent time in a mental hospital. He's been sleeping through the night better than he had in 50 years.
Oh I also saw something that a Russian ASW aircraft was seen in the area of the pipeline damage shortly before the leaks were detected. Some sort of depth bomb possibly?
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Apparently the Xi and Putin friendship has many limits.
While it’s not surprising China did not vote yes on the U.N. resolution condemning Moscow's proclaimed annexation of parts of Ukraine, Putin got an “abstain” vote from them, not a veto.
Then there is the COVID lockdown in China that looks no closer to unwinding. Putin undoubtedly gambled that by now lockdowns would be unwinding and their economy humming along, consuming much more fossil fuel and driving up international prices instead of the $20-$25 discount they currently get from Russia on Urals crude.
Also regarding weapons and advanced microchips - intelligence agencies are suggesting no evidence of transfer of those so far.
While it’s not surprising China did not vote yes on the U.N. resolution condemning Moscow's proclaimed annexation of parts of Ukraine, Putin got an “abstain” vote from them, not a veto.
Then there is the COVID lockdown in China that looks no closer to unwinding. Putin undoubtedly gambled that by now lockdowns would be unwinding and their economy humming along, consuming much more fossil fuel and driving up international prices instead of the $20-$25 discount they currently get from Russia on Urals crude.
Also regarding weapons and advanced microchips - intelligence agencies are suggesting no evidence of transfer of those so far.
wartranslated.com was quite interesting this morning. Apparently significant fighting north of Kherson yesterday, probing right to the outskirts of the city a bit further south.
My favorite take away from his translations today:
"Kadyrov, in his post, revealed the location of headquarters and General Lapin (Starobilsk). Chaos and panic in RU headquarters are growing. These disoriented, uncontrolled officers will lead the newly mobilized who exhibit an absolute lack of discipline, according to numerous videos. "
Not that it wasn't understood already I believe. So they Kadyrov outed Lapin's HQ location. They have to push through to Svatove to get Starobilsk in HIMARS range. It was a good spot for the HQ. A key key GLOC location but away from the logical points of fighting.
Kadyrov is also calling on Putin to use Nukes. I think he knows that if Russia blows apart (what would happen if nukes are used), Chechnya would be basically free again. Not sure he wants a free Chechnya because in the grand scheme of things they really are not liked and have no resources. In any case he can escalate tension in russian society and between the MOD and putin just by saying ridiculous things like this; no negatives for him.
My favorite take away from his translations today:
"Kadyrov, in his post, revealed the location of headquarters and General Lapin (Starobilsk). Chaos and panic in RU headquarters are growing. These disoriented, uncontrolled officers will lead the newly mobilized who exhibit an absolute lack of discipline, according to numerous videos. "
Not that it wasn't understood already I believe. So they Kadyrov outed Lapin's HQ location. They have to push through to Svatove to get Starobilsk in HIMARS range. It was a good spot for the HQ. A key key GLOC location but away from the logical points of fighting.
Kadyrov is also calling on Putin to use Nukes. I think he knows that if Russia blows apart (what would happen if nukes are used), Chechnya would be basically free again. Not sure he wants a free Chechnya because in the grand scheme of things they really are not liked and have no resources. In any case he can escalate tension in russian society and between the MOD and putin just by saying ridiculous things like this; no negatives for him.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Some days have very significant loss upticks
