Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Russia/Ukraine conflict

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
A lot of good news regarding equipment headed to Ukraine - some of it even timely for the upcoming retirement of General Mud for this year.

I've been just absorbing the MSM headlines of late, and trying to track the trends there. I feel like there has been a lot of highlighting of Ukrainian losses, and a lot of concern expressed about escalation / US involvement, and then a recent, very much front and center statement by a (likely) presidential candidate that the US should not be involved at all. That all points in the same general direction.
It tends to make me think that after 6 months at the start of the war where they went AWOL, the Russian disinformation apparatus is in full swing again. Back to their 2016 form. They are playing catch-up to a solid Ukrainian PR operation that somehow seemed ready-to-go on Invasion Day 1, and has continued to spread their stories fairly effectively.

As has been noted before, Ukraine will keep fighting ; they have little to no weapons production of their own, but they will take whatever the West sends them and use it fight to just about the last man/woman. Russia seems to know this and are using their various well-honed media connections and political connections on the American right to convince the West to just "let it go already". Some minds in Russia have likely understood that is their only positive endgame now. They are getting more traction in the US sphere, but not a lot more it seems to me. There was one poll that showed a slight "softening" of US public support for Ukraine assistance - then DAYS of coverage about that one poll, making it seem like inevitable truth written in the sky in giant letters, when in fact, it was a single poll of limited use and duration (and the "softening" was not that much IIRC). Quite interesting to watch that roll out.

I still enjoy and greatly appreciate the contributions to this thread. I admit that I am becoming somewhat worried about the "stalemate" - yes, hopefully Ukraine is absorbing all Russia can throw at it right now with very little loss of territory, but while we are convinced they are training a bunch of soldiers for a counteroffensive ... we don't (and won't) know exactly how many, or where, or when the counterpunch will come. Holding out faith that this will happen and have the blindingly fast effectiveness of the Kharkiv and Kherson liberations.

Have not heard about international commitments for this, but would love to hear the industrialized West commit to rebuilding Ukraine's electric infrastructure in the most forward looking, distributed (and therefore resilient to future attacks), "green" way now possible. That day will come, hopefully soon and the payoff for the world would be more than worth it.

I don't have much more to add, just wanted to "re-register" as an interested lurker and say I routinely look forward to the information gathering here. 'Preesh, y'all.
 
I feel like there has been a lot of highlighting of Ukrainian losses, [...]
I wouldn't be surprised to find out that Ukraine has been pushing these stories as they stockpile weapons and people for their next big offensive.

Many appear ready to follow, hopefully


Unfortunately, Beau of the Fifth Column says MIG-29s will be greatly outmatched so they won't, by themselves, be a game-changer.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Skipdd and madodel
OT:

Q: Why did God invent Irish Whiskey?

A: To ensure the Irish never take over the World. ;)

749c6700-9670-11ed-97ad-0210609a3fe2.jpg


Sláinte is táinte!
 
Joining the dots gets even more obvious these days, and I'm sure that was the real source of worry

Exclusive: [Trump Media] financing with suspected Russian ties came at a critical time as company was running out of cash after a planned merger

"Top executives at Donald Trump’s social media company started to become concerned last spring about $8m that they had accepted from opaque entities in two emergency loans ........ the financing, which came in the form of a $2m loan from an entity called Paxum Bank registered in Dominica in December 2021 and a $6m loan from a entity called ES Family Trust in February 2022, had been arranged in a hurry...... executives had good reason to be concerned: a subsequent examination revealed that the trustee of ES Family Trust was simultaneously a director of Paxum Bank, and one of the part-owners of the bank would turn out to be the relation of an ally of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. .............the money was ultimately not returned, Wilkerson said, in part because the $8m represented such a large proportion of the roughly $12m in cash that Trump Media had in its accounts that losing those funds could put the company in a precarious financial position............ by the time that his attorneys Patrick Mincey, Stephen Bell and Phil Brewster alerted the US attorney’s office for the southern district of New York to the payments on 23 October 2022, the links to a Putin ally were evident."

 

Slovakia approves sending Mig-29 planes to Ukraine​

The Slovak government approved sending Mig-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, prime minister Eduard Heger said on Friday, stepping up its military assistance to Kyiv. Reuters reports the fleet of 11 MiG-29 planes was retired last summer, and most of them are not in operational condition.

(various links, inc Guardian )

 
This is interesting, even if no obvious success. Did Ukraine do this simply to try and pull some Russian forces down there. Or was there another reason ? This is the direct road to Tokmak so Russia cannot afford to simply ignore things like this.

Recon by Force. Quickest way to fix the enemy's locations is to draw their fire.
 
I was curious about the recon report as well. But in light of the explosions throughout occupied Ukraine it seems clear that preparations are being made for the summer offensive. Shaping on the the other offensives took a while.

So Ukraine nearly double the fleet of mig29. Tanks are arriving, Bradley and Stryker and other APCs . They have a long range strike capacity of some sort. Thousands rotated through English and French training, maybe in the tens of thousands by now.

USA is conducting recon on borders. Israel and others supplying anti drone tech.

The Wagner bloke says attacks will come the breadth of the front. I still think it will be a 2 pronged attack first to svatove and starbolisk and then when Russia is forced to respond, the attack toward the sea .

Just arm chair look at things from afar. Mid May I would think, Ukraine has been very careful and there is no hurry now that the front has become static.
 

Slovakia approves sending Mig-29 planes to Ukraine​

The Slovak government approved sending Mig-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, prime minister Eduard Heger said on Friday, stepping up its military assistance to Kyiv. Reuters reports the fleet of 11 MiG-29 planes was retired last summer, and most of them are not in operational condition.

(various links, inc Guardian )


Even if they aren't operational, they can be a source of spare parts. Ukraine is very good at fixing things. They can probably take the 11 that are not in operational condition and make some fully useable.

I was curious about the recon report as well. But in light of the explosions throughout occupied Ukraine it seems clear that preparations are being made for the summer offensive. Shaping on the the other offensives took a while.

So Ukraine nearly double the fleet of mig29. Tanks are arriving, Bradley and Stryker and other APCs . They have a long range strike capacity of some sort. Thousands rotated through English and French training, maybe in the tens of thousands by now.

USA is conducting recon on borders. Israel and others supplying anti drone tech.

The Wagner bloke says attacks will come the breadth of the front. I still think it will be a 2 pronged attack first to svatove and starbolisk and then when Russia is forced to respond, the attack toward the sea .

Just arm chair look at things from afar. Mid May I would think, Ukraine has been very careful and there is no hurry now that the front has become static.

I would say the offensive will start in April or May. Ukraine may wait a beat and see if Russia tries an offensive first. Let the Russians blow a bunch of supply, manpower, and equipment beating their collective heads into a wall, then launch their planned offensive.

I'm sure Ukraine is assessing all the possible locations for an offensive. The two most likely are up around Svatore and the other is somewhere along the line from where the Dnipro bends from N/S to E/W and the Donbas. I expect the offensive to be broad enough that the Ukrainians don't end up with dangerously exposed flanks, but I also doubt it will be a broad offensive across the entire frontline. For one thing attacking eastward across the Donbas is a pretty pointless exercise. The terrain that direction provides a lot of natural defensive positions. The way to take the Donbas is from the north.

What Ukraine does with the offensive depends a lot on how big a force they have and how much supply they have. They may have enough to support a two pronged offensive, which would leave the Russians with a lose-lose situation.

One way or another, Ukraine needs to get to the shore of the Azoz. Once they do that, Russia will be left with severe supply problems. If they can get there by rolling up the Donbas, that leaves all remaining forces in Ukraine in a seriously bad supply situation. All supply has to come through Crimea at that point, and the Ukrainians will be able to interdict the easiest ways of moving supplies. The Russians will be having to run every ship they have trying to move enough supply into Crimea through the Black Sea and the ports where they will be unloading will be in range of Ukrainian missiles.

Getting to the Azoz without rolling up the Donbas leaves a problem in the Donbas, but it also puts them in a better position to interdict supply in the south since their position on the shore of the Azoz will be further west and closer to the ports in Crimea.
 

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes​

Arrest warrants issued for Russian leader and his children’s rights commissioner for ‘unlawful deportation’ of Ukrainian children


yay !