Russia/Ukraine conflict

[kabin]

Watch out for an uptick in cyberwar. Make sure your important accounts are locked down with FIDO and 2FA.

The last cyber attack in the US proved we are very vulnerable. We have to hope our government, major companies, and utilities have done their homework with cybersecurity otherwise there's gonna be some pain a comin!

 

[AZRI11]

Sanctions will be limited to the Moscow-backed breakaway regions. Biden will eventually say Russia will probably not order a "full" invasion . That would settle the markets.

 

[dm28997]

Nice scenario, but Russia is a failed state with a non-existent economy without oil and gas, so they'll never join the mission -- well never say never, decades?

Milestones: 1989–1992 - Office of the Historian

history.state.gov 3.0 shell

history.state.gov

Historically the Failed Soviet Union which fell the Berlin Wall only happened 30 years ago. In 2004 the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined the EU which indeed made . Russia smaller. The alcoholism is pretty bad there along with fossil fuel oligarchs. I bet the rule of the Soviets is fresh in the minds of many of these EU countries which makes Putin's moves unwise IMO. Hopefully the people in Russia will sober up to the reality of whats happening.

 

[roblab]

Higher energy costs from oil/gas skyrocketing will drive up prices of everything including the production of raw and manufactured materials used in vehicles and batteries. Tesla is already supply constrained, but I'd say the net impact will be a decline in car demand overall due to costs trickling through the supply chain and likely throttling miles driven.

Add higher financing costs to commodity inflation and vehicle sales might see some real downward pressure

They need to start building LOTS of solar panels. You don't have to mine or refine the sun. You only store it for future use.

 

[traxila]

So the stock market will crash over this? And drag Tesla down with it all the way?

What exactly is the market looking to price in here? This conflict is not going to go away, but in the end it does not necessarily need to impact the US economy at all. The US had a booming economy for decades when the Soviet Union actually existed. And short of Russia officially invading the Ukraine wholesale, how is this dramatically different from the Crimea annexation? Maybe I am just a permanent cynic, but I cannot shake the feeling that we are all being played here.

It is pretty obvious here that Putin is not going to suddenly announce peace and withdraw, so what is the inflection point that will cause the market to move to its next fixation?

BTW, war sucks and I wish the people involved stay whole, but unfortunately this is not how it works.

 

[BornToFly]

I am happy to see Biden and all of the EU willing to stop Putin. This is great news for EVs and alternative energy around the world to combat the Climate Crisis which is progressing rapidly. I wonder when Putin will lose support in his own country so Russians can join the mission to elimination of fossil fuels. All great news IMHO.

If they were willing to stop Putin for real, they would have sent US and European troops into Ukraine two months ago. The Biden response has been pathetic. Biden has been telling Putin that if he doesn't behave he can't have his vegetables with dinner....

 

[AndreP]

They need to start building LOTS of solar panels. You don't have to mine or refine the sun. You only store it for future use.

7 of the 10 biggest solar panel manufacturers are in China, and Russia and China are joined at the hip in wanting to dethrone the US as the economic powerhouse of the world.

Putin going after the Ukraine could just be the start here

 

[dm28997]

If they were willing to stop Putin for real, they would have sent US and European troops into Ukraine two months ago. The Biden response has been pathetic. Biden has been telling Putin that if he doesn't behave he can't have his vegetables with dinner....

We have to be careful of interfering with these countries as it isn't needed IMO.
Biden just released this. Hit them in the pocket book and isolate them. We have the whole world on our side on this I think.
No need to waste resources when other methods are less costly and more effective.

Executive Order on Blocking Property of Certain Persons and Prohibiting Certain Transactions With Respect to Continued Russian Efforts to Undermine the Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Ukraine

Executive Order on Blocking Property of Certain Persons and Prohibiting Certain Transactions With Respect to Continued Russian Efforts to Undermine the Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Ukraine | The White House

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 212(f) of the Immigration...

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[Tyler34]

Executive Order on Blocking Property of Certain Persons and Prohibiting Certain Transactions With Respect to Continued Russian Efforts to Undermine the Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Ukraine | The White House

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 212(f) of the Immigration...

www.whitehouse.gov

Seems like little more than a handslap.

 

[Singuy]

So the stock market will crash over this? And drag Tesla down with it all the way?

What exactly is the market looking to price in here? This conflict is not going to go away, but in the end it does not necessarily need to impact the US economy at all. The US had a booming economy for decades when the Soviet Union actually existed. And short of Russia officially invading the Ukraine wholesale, how is this dramatically different from the Crimea annexation? Maybe I am just a permanent cynic, but I cannot shake the feeling that we are all being played here.

It is pretty obvious here that Putin is not going to suddenly announce peace and withdraw, so what is the inflection point that will cause the market to move to its next fixation?

BTW, war sucks and I wish the people involved stay whole, but unfortunately this is not how it works.

Market panic over nonsense. This is no 2020 Covid crash in which the entire world shut down. So shake off the paper handers and then we see the market roaring back. Oil prices may still stay high which is a great thing for EV adoption.

Also we notice that Tesla performs best during challenging times as it's a company that quickly pivots whenever possible. This is how we see Tesla beating expectations during the Covid shut down, beating expectations during the chip shortages, and we will beat expectations again while other auto makers cry about operating expenses increasing due to the war in Ukraine.

 

[BornToFly]

Seems like little more than a handslap.

Exactly. He will take Ukraine, thousands will die, and then the world will go back to "normal" and the US and Europe will pretend it never happened.

 

[Singuy]

Exactly. He will take Ukraine, thousands will die, and then the world will go back to "normal" and the US and Europe will pretend it never happened.

I think the Ukrainians will fight against the Russian front until the Russians run out of money. The people of Ukraine have spoken and overwhelmingly voted in a pro western democracy president and would like to join Nato if given the chance.

If you want a video that does nothing but spit out facts, this I found to be a great one.

 

[ggr]

I find it ironic that the first sanctions issued are against Ukraine. Well, bits of it.

 

[_Redshift_]

I find it ironic that the first sanctions issued are against Ukraine. Well, bits of it.

They were under Russian occupation. Russian troops have been there since 2014, I believe.

 

[Mengy]

So the stock market will crash over this? And drag Tesla down with it all the way?

In the short term, most likely, yes. Long term this will be a bump in the road for the stock market. It will likely be a messy couple of months though, for both stocks and the world in general.

 

[kabin]

Sanctions will be limited to the Moscow-backed breakaway regions. Biden will eventually say Russia will probably not order a "full" invasion . That would settle the markets.

I think the threat was any military movement across the border triggered a response. Putin might be counting on EU countries dropping their support. We'll see how fast Nord Stream 2 turns into recycled metal since the response was suppose to be swift.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's not much Russia can do to the global economy. The only folks in the line of fire are European gas customers.

What are they gonna do, stop selling oil to the global market for the next two years? That like 10-40% of it's remaining window of relivance.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think the Ukrainians will fight against the Russian front until the Russians run out of money. The people of Ukraine have spoken and overwhelmingly voted in a pro western democracy president and would like to join Nato if given the chance.

If you want a video that does nothing but spit out facts, this I found to be a great one.

I do wonder how successful any invasion/occupation would be.

Ukraine has massive underground subway in some cities which can serve as bomb shelters.

Eventually the war has to include a lot of urban warfare in environments where the complexity of the environment, may even the odds.

Ukraine has an army and some military hardware.

We have seen in previous wars, if the local populace is highly motivated to resist, occupation can be difficult.

And while all of that is going on, sanctions are kicking in.

Many countries have found wars are easy to start, and hard to finish.

 

[Singuy]

I do wonder how successful any invasion/occupation would be.

Ukraine has massive underground subway in some cities which can serve as bomb shelters.

Eventually the war has to include a lot of urban warfare in environments where the complexity of the environment, may even the odds.

Ukraine has an army and some military hardware.

We have seen in previous wars, if the local populace is highly motivated to resist, occupation can be difficult.

And while all of that is going on, sanctions are kicking in.

Many countries have found wars are easy to start, and hard to finish.

I think Russian came for east Ukraine and know they can't take West Ukraine. The citizens are too pro western democracy for that to happen. However in East Ukraine the people are happy the Russians are there. I just don't understand if they are so Russia loving, why not move back?

It's like Chinatown decided to be independent of the US with the help of Beijing..

 

[samppa]

If they were willing to stop Putin for real, they would have sent US and European troops into Ukraine two months ago. The Biden response has been pathetic. Biden has been telling Putin that if he doesn't behave he can't have his vegetables with dinner....

Exactly. And these new sanctions are a joke.

I personally don't believe in full scale invasion - ukraine is after all 45million people. Putin will annex donetsk and lugansk. And he is looking to have Lukashenka established permanently in Belarus, so he has his puppet there.

To really hurt russia, EU and US has to:
1) close russia out of swift
2) freeze all financial markets for Russia and Belarus
3) stop buying oil and gas from Russia
4) expand Nato to the rest of eastern european nations, that are not members yet

I live in Finland, we have 1200km of common border with Russia, so I have some insight here.. Finland was also part of Russian empire until 1917.