Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SageBrush]

Since the real fight is between Ukraine and Russia

Ask Neville Chamberlain about appeasement

 

[CLK350]

Some other viewpoints - this clusterfk didn't happen overnight.

One good outcome of all this as some have noted, it has woken up folks to the problems of coal, oil & gas - a bit rudely, but nothing else did work before.

TL;DR: "Ukraine is basically a victim, put forward as sacrifice by the West, but Russia isn't exactly blameless either."

Imagine If we had extended then Pres Yeltsin the same Marshall Plan we gave Germany and Japan after WW2. Nah it would be too good, we need wars and conflicts /s

Russia Attacks Ukraine

Russian forces have started their attack on Ukraine at Thursday, about 5 AM local time. It was not unexpected, yet it caught the world apparently by surprise. Attack was opened with cruise and ball…

historyandwarfare.wordpress.com

Also the origins of it could be traced to the Wolfovitz doctrine, which all US administrations have followed since in a not too "first principles" way, but more in a what-can-I-use-this-for-my-political means way. From Yale historian Pozner, 3 years ago

On September 27, 2018, Yale's Program in Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies, and the Poynter Fellowship for Journalism hosted Vladimir Pozner, the acclaimed Russian-American journalist and broadcaster. Pozner spoke on the impact of US foreign policy towards Russia after the Soviet Union has been disbanded, and shared his opinions on a range of issues raised by the audience, from the alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential elections, to Skripal poisoning, to the state of independent media in Russia and the US.

 

[SageBrush]

Also the origins of it could be traced to the Wolfovitz doctrine, which all US administrations have followed since in a not too "first principles" way, but more in a what-can-I-use-this-for-my-political means way. From Yale historian Pozner, 3 years ago

I watched about 40%, and I'll watch the rest because Pozner has insight into Russia that everybody should hear.

That said, I already disagree with him. The Warsaw pact countries are independent countries that have the right to choose their alliances. The Russian demand that those countries remain neutral or under Russian influence, and the agreement by the US to the arrangement, is deeply flawed and bound to come undone as the citizenry of those countries seek self-determination.

 

[Kandiru]

It's all a matter of how you interpret Cyrillic into Roman alphabet anyways.

If Putin is going to move to doing Chechnya tactics in Ukraine, then he has truly lost his mind. The leveling of Grozny is something that largely happened in total media blackout in a far-flung Russian separatist territory, but that city was basically entirely reduced to rubble. When the Russians raised the flag over Grozny's central square at the end of the Second Chechen War, the entire city was a completely abandoned ruin because literally no one was alive there anymore, they had either fled or died. Kyiv is a city of 3 million people. If Putin kills 3 million people there is no way the West will just sit around and keep doing nothing. Conventional war across Europe would be on the table, like Red Storm Rising or EndWar. From there, it's not much further to global thermonuclear war and the end of human civilization.

That's what they said when they came back to Hungary in 1956, but the West just watched instead. There will be no intervention, just sabre rattling. China will also get emboldened to strike Taiwan.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Hopefully there's someone with a shred of sanity in that chain of command below Putin. They would know that their entire family and ~everyone they know dies in the ~flight time to the nearest Ohio class after they push that button.

Stanislav Petrov​

If there is, he’ll be dead soon.

 

[Svetlin]

I watched about 40%, and I'll watch the rest because Pozner has insight into Russia that everybody should hear.

That said, I already disagree with him. The Warsaw pact countries are independent countries that have the right to choose their alliances. The Russian demand that those countries remain neutral or under Russian influence, and the agreement by the US to the arrangement, is deeply flawed and bound to come undone as the citizenry of those countries seek self-determination.

Yes, every article about "well, the West brought this on themselves by expanding NATO eastward" basically boils down to the assumption that 150 million Eastern Europeans have no right to chose their destiny and allegiance. I believe the proper scholarly response to that is "иди нахуй".

 

[jbcarioca]

so i understand…
are you saying that, since the system had intentional loopholes and has historically been corrupt, so this particular sanction doesn’t have much bite to it.
but in todays lens, and with even Switzerland publicly bowing out, that it may just be a back-breaker for these russian banks if implemented? sorry i was a little confused between the post replies. thank you.

No, not entirely. They SWIFT design was intended to allow both corporate financial management needs as well as interbank requirements. From inception SWIFT has served both functions. It is not SWIFT that enables the corruption, but the prevalence of tax havens and the inclination of some banks to help wealthy people, without asking much about how the money came. That is how anti-money-laundering rules came to be, but those were, and are, primarily oriented toward illicit drug trade, not corrupt politicians.

The first Russian oligarchs emerged during the Gobachev era. then have accelerated with Putin. They have consistently invested publicly and privately around the world, and few governments did anything other than to encourage them. The world has ignored all the past aggressions until now. The financial system is not intended to be the moral police, that is logically a government role. Keep in mind that Merkel, Trump and most others were happy to cooperate and participate in the flood of petroleum, grain, vodka and, above all, money.

The SWIFT sanctions do ahem bite, but the account freezes and FX stops are the ones that have more impact. The bite from SWIFT hits official payment for petroleum products, semiconductors, aircraft and auto parts as well as other vehicles. All of that tends to be official and workarounds are often not feasible.

All the workarounds are ones that mostly already exist and generally involve use of non-Russian corporations with, usually, non-Russian official officers. Since perhaps the majority of very wealthy Russians have other citizenships, they are less directly affected. The official side is deeply affected. Most international operations of Russian financial institutions carry their name and often share listing make that clear. Those are mostly damaged. Those entities that are well insulated by name and officer identities are likely to operate freely, as they are doing now, unless something very much unprecedented happens.

Check history. The Nazi Germans managed to completely operate for decades, mostly without ever being 'outed'. It may be harder now but not much.
IT is not system corruption as much as it is the perils of a free and open system.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

EU Will Debate Ukraine's Application for Membership, Official Says | Barrons

Ukraine's EU Application Will Be Debated: Official

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the European Union to fast-track Ukraine’s membership, an arduous process that can take years.

www.barrons.com

Joining EU is the real dream of all poor European countries. That's what raises investments and living standards.
Joining NATO is just a prerequisite, whether written or not.

Should this happen, it may turn out to be useful offramp. Demilitarized Ukraine that belongs to EU.
Everyone can claim victory, and no one gets everything.

Not sure about Krimea in all that, but EU membership is such a gift, Ukraine may be able to let it go. Please don't point to territorial integrity etc, that's not how real politics work - I've lived in Yugoslavia when everything was falling apart, and borders didn't stay sacred.

Edit: I should add that I feel Putin is predictable; he's mad, but he's predictably mad. From his KGB days, he was evaluated to have "diminished sense of risk". Another 20+ years of absolute power have created a person that lives in his own "story", that's poorly co-related to the real world. Add these together, and I am afraid he's ready to pay almost any price that his citizens will be paying, not himself. So his willingness to escalate may throw us in the WW3 if everyone else chose to call his "bluffs", which aren't bluffs...

 

[jbcarioca]

So... 1. Before Putin invaded Ukraine – which country or which countries would could have considered invading Russia? 2. Are there any country or any countries thinking about invading Russia today?

Precisely. It does take unbridled paranoia to imagine anyone attacking Russia proper. However, if Putin really thinks in Soviet Union terms, his posturing about the Baltics, Finland, Sweden and other former Soviet conquests, however brief they were in some cases...If his statements are reflective of his thought; it matters not who would think of attacking. It it that those areas have been stolen form Russia. Hence he's totally justified to take back Russian property and anybody who resists is attacking Russia.

Is that not what the world faces? Nobody wants to attack Russia, probably, but Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland plus the rest of the USSR former sphere of control..none want to move backwards. Much less Sweden. If Mr Putin really is think back to the 1780's maybe he wants Denmark and Norway too. Nobody seems to know where his territorial ambitions end. He keeps telling ancient stories, all posited on Russian history, all ignoring how short some fo those contests were and how contested they were.

Studying a bit of Russian history with maximimum conquests in mind does present a shocking vision, does it not?

 

[SageBrush]

Joining NATO is just a prerequisite, whether written or not.

Really ? Are there no EU countries that are not part of NATO ?

 

[SageBrush]

If his statements are reflective of his thought; it matters not who would think of attacking. It it that those areas have been stolen form Russia. Hence he's totally justified to take back Russian property and anybody who resists is attacking Russia.

Indeed, which is why I view the 'West' approach to Ukraine as appeasement.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Not

Really ? Are there no EU countries that are not part of NATO ?

Really.
No ex Eastern European (poor) country has any chance of joining EU before it aligns militarily with NATO/EU.
Historically in Cold War they may have been exceptions.

It actually makes sense - why sponsor poor country development, and that's what EU does, if country could become a treat?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Precisely. It does take unbridled paranoia to imagine anyone attacking Russia proper. However, if Putin really thinks in Soviet Union terms, his posturing about the Baltics, Finland, Sweden and other former Soviet conquests, however brief they were in some cases...If his statements are reflective of his thought; it matters not who would think of attacking. It it that those areas have been stolen form Russia. Hence he's totally justified to take back Russian property and anybody who resists is attacking Russia.

Is that not what the world faces? Nobody wants to attack Russia, probably, but Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland plus the rest of the USSR former sphere of control..none want to move backwards. Much less Sweden. If Mr Putin really is think back to the 1780's maybe he wants Denmark and Norway too. Nobody seems to know where his territorial ambitions end. He keeps telling ancient stories, all posited on Russian history, all ignoring how short some fo those contests were and how contested they were.

Studying a bit of Russian history with maximimum conquests in mind does present a shocking vision, does it not?

I agree with your assessment about Putin's dreams.
Yet, he's been very consistent throughout years drawing a "do not cross" line at Ukraine, so I feel he'd feel he has built a "legacy" by stopping with Ukraine.

I don't doubt he'd like to snap three small Baltic countries that divide Russia proper from Kaliningrad. But I think he would attempt that opportunistically only if China and US have a prolonged war at Taiwan that would significantly weaken NATO.

Edit: I've lived under, observed from up-close, and fought a dictator for 15 years (Milosevic), before moving to Canada

 

[SageBrush]

No ex Eastern European (poor) country has any chance of joining EU before it aligns militarily with NATO/EU.
Historically in Cold War they may have been exceptions.

Fair enough, although I'm not convinced of the obvious tight linkage requirement between military reciprocal protection and trade block. So far as I know, the Scandinavian countries have trade arrangements with the EU that do not require NATO.

 

[CLK350]

I watched about 40%, and I'll watch the rest because Pozner has insight into Russia that everybody should hear.

That said, I already disagree with him. The Warsaw pact countries are independent countries that have the right to choose their alliances. The Russian demand that those countries remain neutral or under Russian influence, and the agreement by the US to the arrangement, is deeply flawed and bound to come undone as the citizenry of those countries seek self-determination.

Lots of food for thoughts here. More historical viewpoints to consider - that was in 2015

Note: I am not endorsing one view over another, I want to learn the facts as well as I can before forming an opinion - and there is a paucity of discussion from these point of views - maybe we should be lucky these videos haven't been censored/ banned from YouTube /s

From the U of Chicago this time

UnCommon Core: The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis

John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in Political Science and Co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, assesses the causes of the present Ukraine crisis, the best way to end it, and its consequences for all of the main actors. A key assumption is that in order to come up with the optimum plan for ending the crisis, it is essential to know what caused the crisis. Regarding the all-important question of causes, the key issue is whether Russia or the West bears primary responsibility.

Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

If Mr Putin really is think back to the 1780's maybe he wants Denmark and Norway too. Nobody seems to know where his territorial ambitions end. .....

Just thought that was 'funny' and wanted to share.

 

[petit_bateau]

Fair enough, although I'm not convinced of the obvious tight linkage requirement between military reciprocal protection and trade block. So far as I know, the Scandinavian countries have trade arrangements with the EU that do not require NATO.

Sweden and Finland are in EU but not in NATO. There are historical reasons for that. They are currently urgently reconsidering their stance and popular opinion in both countries is changing extremely rapidly in a pro-join-NATO direction.

EU has some other non-NATO members, primarily Austria and Ireland. Again there are historical reasons for that.

@Zhelko Dimic is quite correct to point out that EU is hesitant to bring in non-NATO nations. It is not an absolute prohibition, but as the four examples above (Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Austria) illustrate it has caused extreme difficulty for the EU to have these non-aligned and/or neutral countries within the EU as it causes the development of a common position on hard-power strategic issues to be very complicated. Needlessly so, and with considerable consequences that both NATO and EU dislike because the workarounds are very clunky.

The EU does have a defence & security aspect to it. Both in terms of developing various forms of direct hard power, and also on the underlying strategic enablers (logistics, energy, etc).

You are seeing a lot of hard-worked EU detail planning coming to fruition extremely rapidly right now. Also in concert with US and to a lesser extent UK, Japan, Aus. Lessons identified in 2014 (the Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbass) led to scenario planning and gaming. That is why the SWIFT blockade and the freezing of Russian assets had such quick coordinated reality.

And don't even start me on the stupidity of Brexit.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Ask Neville Chamberlain about appeasement

Chamberlain gets a bad rap for his delay tactics. I've heard knowledgeable historians opine that if England had jumped into the war as early as Churchill would have liked, they would have been rather handily defeated at the outset. Britain needed those extra months to get their industries ramped up into war production.

 

[samppa]

Fair enough, although I'm not convinced of the obvious tight linkage requirement between military reciprocal protection and trade block. So far as I know, the Scandinavian countries have trade arrangements with the EU that do not require NATO.

Finland and Sweden are full members of EU, but not in NATO.

 

[samppa]

Seems the huge russian convoy has stopped because they are running out of fuel and food. I really hope that is the case.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498685248095375362