Russia/Ukraine conflict

[MC3OZ]

Ask Neville Chamberlain about appeasement

As things stand in any negoitated deal, Ukraine is likely to get most/all of what they want.

The longer the war goes on the stronger the Ukrainian negoitating position.

Total humiliation and military defeat of the Russians is very likely.

Cutting a deal before that happens, may stop Putin pressing the button.

But Ukraine will decide what deal they will accept.

 

[nwdiver]

But if he’s dying then does he give a flying monkeys? He clearly doesn’t care about the 18-20yr old conscripts he sends to the front, nor civilian life. He sure a *sugar* smells doesn’t care about his own population.
My wife is glad she left & now she’s eligible is applying for UK citizenship so she rip the Russian one up.

He has 2 daughters.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Don't estimate China.

There are stories of China paying shipping companies to not pick up American containers to China in Long Bench ports. These ships paid to go back to China with empty containers, so no import into China.

The CCP can pay oil ships more... Good luck getting tankers in general.

Again, don't underestimate China and their hate of US and allies.

That's not how it works at all. You're comparing cargo containers with oil tankers. Completely different dynamics and again, the infrastructure isn't there for Russia to be exporting large quantities of oil out. They don't even control the passages they would need to get oil tankers through. Doesn't matter how much China wants it to happen.

Could China and Russia set up the infrastructure by sea? Sure....it would take months if not longer....and could be completely blocked by other countries

 

[JRP3]

He has 2 daughters.

There are claims they've been moved to an underground bunker

A Russian professor is claiming Putin has shifted his family to an underground bunker

Vladimir Putin has in recent days hidden his family members in an “underground city” in Siberia, according to a Russian professor.

www.news.com.au

 

[dipper]

That's not how it works at all. You're comparing cargo containers with oil tankers. Completely different dynamics and again, the infrastructure isn't there for Russia to be exporting large quantities of oil out. They don't even control the passages they would need to get oil tankers through. Doesn't matter how much China wants it to happen.

Could China and Russia set up the infrastructure by sea? Sure....it would take months if not longer....and could be completely blocked by other countries

You know blocking those ships will only escalate their reaction.

I can see armed convoy escort of Russian and Chinese Navies.

Will the West escalate to shoot? History has suggested that West will back down. Just look at South China Sea. The World stand by and allowed China to make Naval bases illegally.

 

[nativewolf]

You know blocking those ships will only escalate their reaction.

I can see armed convoy escort of Russian and Chinese Navies.

Will the West escalate to shoot? History has suggested that West will back down. Just look at South China Sea. The World stand by and allowed China to make Naval bases illegally.

History says they don't step down. Cuba for instance.

 

[nwdiver]

There are claims they've been moved to an underground bunker

A Russian professor is claiming Putin has shifted his family to an underground bunker

Vladimir Putin has in recent days hidden his family members in an “underground city” in Siberia, according to a Russian professor.

www.news.com.au

What do you think the odds are Putin dooms them to living in that bunker forever just because NATO enforces a NFZ over Ukraine?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You know blocking those ships will only escalate their reaction.

I can see armed convoy escort of Russian and Chinese Navies.

Will the West escalate to shoot? History has suggested that West will back down. Just look at South China Sea. The World stand by and allowed China to make Naval bases illegally.

You're really out of touch with the realities of logistics and infrastructure. No port along Ukraine's coast or Russia's northern coast has the infrastructure for exporting oil. Further, there's really only two avenues for. One those avenues would go through Turkey. It's a narrow channel that Turkey can easily blockade.

The other avenue is Russia's north coast which is ice packed right now, meaning it's a no-go.

And sorry, but China's not going to go to war just for Russia when the entire world is against Russia. I have zero clue as to why people think China would take Russia's side in the case of escalation or war. China's economy is entirely based on the world economy. Right now they're trying to play both sides of this to try and get a win/win, but when push comes to shove, China isn't going to destroy everything it worked for over the past 30 years in terms of it's economy.

And yes, it would cripple the Chinese economy if war broke out and China sided with Russia. Even if there was de-escalation and return to norms, China would then be known as the country that sided with Russia in arms and appetite for anything China made would crumble on the world economy. You can bet China is fully aware of that

 

[dipper]

Again. You think with logic.

China's current leader makes Donald Trump look like Mickey Mouse interms of crazy.

China is already distroying their own economy with crazy laws. Chinese stocks have been tanking and cracking down on billionaires (and especially their money from going aboard). China wants to be like 1960s communism again.

South Korea and Japan are abandoning/exiting China. Even Apple. Only folks like Elon Musk haven't seen that yet.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Again. You think with logic.

China's current leader makes Donald Trump look like Mickey Mouse interms of crazy.

China is already distroying their own economy with crazy laws. Chinese stocks have been tanking and cracking down on billionaires (and especially their money from going aboard). China wants to be like 1960s communism again.

South Korea and Japan are abandoning/exiting China. Even Apple. Only folks like Elon Musk haven't seen that yet.

Ok I clearly see now your thought process on this so there's no point. You have your own view/bias which is fine but I don't think registers with reality.

Again.......logistics and infrastructure rule everything and the fact is, neither are there right now for Russia to be exporting oil on a mass scale on the sea.

 

[SageBrush]

Russian military aggression has to be stopped, but I wonder how many people here are familiar with the Jewish tragedy in Ukraine ? Wikipedia is a pretty good summary, but below is a tl;dr version:

• Violent anti-semitism has been rampant in the Ukraine for hundreds of years. Wholesale slaughter of Jews was so common it got its own name -- the pogrom (invented by the cossaks, adopted by the ukrainians.)
• During WW II the most extreme genocide of Jews occurred in Nazi Germany, Poland, and Ukraine. The Ukraine stood out in particular for not only passively supporting the slaughter, but carrying out the slaughter themselves.
• The few Jews left today in Ukraine (about 17k today, 900k 100 years ago) remain a political dog whistle for the Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian Nazi supporting descendants, both of whom use Jewish hate propaganda to rally the population to their side.

I can think of better candidates for the EU.

 

[traxila]

Russian military aggression has to be stopped, but I wonder how many people here are familiar with the Jewish angle in Ukraine ? Wikipedia is a pretty good summary, but below is a tl;dr version:

• Violent anti-semitism has been rampant in the Ukraine for hundreds of years. Wholesale slaughter of Jews was so common it got its own name -- the pogrom
• During WW II the most extreme genocide of Jews occurred in Nazi Germany, Poland, and Ukraine. The Ukraine stood out in particular for not only passively supporting the slaughter, but carrying out the slaughter themselves.
• The few Jews left today in Ukraine (about 17k today, 900k 100 years ago) remain a political dog whistle for the Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian Nazi supporting descendants, both of whom use Jewish hate propaganda to rally the population to their side.

I can think of better candidates for the EU.

How Zelensky Gave the World a Jewish Hero

As the Ukrainian president captivates the world with his bravery, he offers a reminder of the inroads Eastern and Central European Jews have made in overcoming their status as perpetual outsiders.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Russian military aggression has to be stopped, but I wonder how many people here are familiar with the Jewish angle in Ukraine ? Wikipedia is a pretty good summary, but below is a tl;dr version:

• Violent anti-semitism has been rampant in the Ukraine for hundreds of years. Wholesale slaughter of Jews was so common it got its own name -- the pogrom
• During WW II the most extreme genocide of Jews occurred in Nazi Germany, Poland, and Ukraine. The Ukraine stood out in particular for not only passively supporting the slaughter, but carrying out the slaughter themselves.
• The few Jews left today in Ukraine (about 17k today, 900k 100 years ago) remain a political dog whistle for the Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian Nazi supporting descendants, both of whom use Jewish hate propaganda to rally the population to their side.

I can think of better candidates for the EU.

I'm reasonably familiar with some of this for all sorts of reasons.

It is notable that "Zelenskyy is the first Jewish President of Ukraine. With Volodymyr Groysman as Prime Minister, Ukraine became the second country to have both a Jewish President and Prime Minister. "

Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I can think of no country that is a better candidate for EU entry than the Ukraine we see under Zelensky.

 

[SageBrush]

I knew someone would bring up Zelensky. It reminds me of the local trope that "some of my best friends are black."

He is actually an anti-semitic flashpoint that Russia uses to manipulate Ukrainians against the 'West.'

 

[petit_bateau]

I knew someone would bring up Zelensky.

He is actually an anti-semitic flashpoint that Russia uses to manipulate Ukrainians against the 'West.'

Yeah, so much so that they all voted for him and he has a 91% approval rating in Ukraine

Now, remind me who was the first Jewish president of the USA ?

Ukrainian Support for President Zelensky Skyrockets Amid Russia Invasion

Zelensky's resistance to Putin's attempts to take over Ukraine and his calls for people to rise up and fight for their country appears to be a popular strategy.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Skipdd]

Russian military aggression has to be stopped, but I wonder how many people here are familiar with the Jewish angle in Ukraine ? Wikipedia is a pretty good summary, but below is a tl;dr version:

• Violent anti-semitism has been rampant in the Ukraine for hundreds of years. Wholesale slaughter of Jews was so common it got its own name -- the pogrom
• During WW II the most extreme genocide of Jews occurred in Nazi Germany, Poland, and Ukraine. The Ukraine stood out in particular for not only passively supporting the slaughter, but carrying out the slaughter themselves.
• The few Jews left today in Ukraine (about 17k today, 900k 100 years ago) remain a political dog whistle for the Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian Nazi supporting descendants, both of whom use Jewish hate propaganda to rally the population to their side.

I can think of better candidates for the EU.

My paternal grandmother was Ukranian and Jewish. Her father was a rabbi. They emigrated to Scotland and from their to the US because of the pogroms. So, yes, I know. As has been reported, Zelensky is Jewish. Anti-semitism is in many places, including in the US; I grew up in SW Virginia and experienced it first hand. I don’t think the past should disqualify them, nor do I think we should ignore racial hate of any flavor anywhere. Tribalism sadly exists everywhere; racial hate starts with a belief that I am a part of a group that is better than you.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Anti-semitism has been a problem in eastern europe and russia forever. Ukraine is no different in that regard. Zelensky is jewish and got over 70% of the vote. That's Putin's narrative- that's he's there to de-nazify. Total crap.

 

[madodel]

I can understand why somebody would be a bit gun-shy. We all have big weapons, while some of us have civilization-altering weapons. And mistakes are easy to make, leading to inadvertent escalation.

Many are talking tough now, but the West has a lot of long-term coordination issues. For instance, should the US let the EU expand into its frontiers when it is the US security guarantee that underpins it all?

Distance from Puerto Rico to Sint Maarten is 374 km. So the EU is here. Should we be worried?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The convoy for the last 24hrs has been "frozen in place by logistics problems, short on fuel and food, and perhaps pausing to reassess tactics."

Russia bombards Ukraine urban areas as armed convoy stalls

Russia bombed a TV tower in Ukraine's capital on Tuesday and rained rockets on the city of Kharkiv as Moscow intensified its bombardment of Ukrainian urban areas in a shift of tactics after its six-day invasion stalled.

www.reuters.com

 

[SageBrush]

That's Putin's narrative- that's he's there to de-nazify. Total crap.

9 parts lie and manipulative propaganda, 1 part a kernel of truth.

The 'nationalist' movement in Ukraine has German and rabidly anti-semitic elements. To this day they use Jewish hate propaganda. It is not by chance that both Putin and the Ukrainian nationalists use anti-semitic propaganda. It plays well in that populace.

Zelensky is the Colin Powell of Ukraine.