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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
Useful RUSI article re Russian air force status, which I agree with given the observed evidence so far
rusi.org
Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?
More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
rusi.org
In the early 90s when the USSR broke up a number of the former republics had nuclear weapons they didn't want. There was an agreement made in Budapest in 1994 that had Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in exchange for security guarantees. Russia has clearly violated this.
Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances - Wikipedia
The Ukrainians hot down another Su-34. Twitter has pictures of the pilot, he looks like he has a head injury. The operations officer was not so lucky. There are pictures of his body on Twitter too, it looks like an ejection seat malfunction (a hazard in western jets too).
This is the pilot before the war:
He's the one standing next to the guy in the suit in the right hand picture. He has quite the beer gut, which is visible in the social media pictures after his capture. You can look them up if curious, showing pictures of POWs is against the Geneva Convention. He must be a senior officer to still be flying in such poor shape plus be in a photo op with Russian politicians (including Putin).
The Russians had 134 Su-34 operational at the beginning of the war, they have already lost two that we know of.
Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances - Wikipedia
The Ukrainians hot down another Su-34. Twitter has pictures of the pilot, he looks like he has a head injury. The operations officer was not so lucky. There are pictures of his body on Twitter too, it looks like an ejection seat malfunction (a hazard in western jets too).
This is the pilot before the war:
He's the one standing next to the guy in the suit in the right hand picture. He has quite the beer gut, which is visible in the social media pictures after his capture. You can look them up if curious, showing pictures of POWs is against the Geneva Convention. He must be a senior officer to still be flying in such poor shape plus be in a photo op with Russian politicians (including Putin).
The Russians had 134 Su-34 operational at the beginning of the war, they have already lost two that we know of.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Isn't the tall chap Bashar al-Assad ?
Does this make it two Su-34 lost by the Russians ? Using that aircraft to drop dumb bombs in this environment is lunacy
Crazy world we're living in.
I wonder where an AI bot would fall in wartime politics? Send them trained with the Patriots and all the Ukrainians have to do is say 'Optimus, shoot Russia' LOL. Oh, and hope they work better than FSD... And never allow Skynet as a username... Okay, I'll see myself out...
I wonder where an AI bot would fall in wartime politics? Send them trained with the Patriots and all the Ukrainians have to do is say 'Optimus, shoot Russia' LOL. Oh, and hope they work better than FSD... And never allow Skynet as a username... Okay, I'll see myself out...
We'll see what happens with them.
Useful RUSI article re Russian air force status
Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?
More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
Good article. The Russian involvement in Syria was really a small operation. This has a list of unit strengths on the right bar down a ways. They committed aircraft by the handful only. A total of 8 Su-34 for example.
I was surprised they are using the aircraft at low altitude. I read that the presence of MANPADS in such high numbers was going to drive the helicopters out completely and push the fighter bombers to above 10,000 feet. Apparently they are going in low instead. Dumb move when your opponent's AA is prevalent at low altitude.
The Russians should own the skies at this point. Things would be even worse for them if the Ukrainians got those aircraft from eastern Europe. I expect the Ukrainians will be re-equipping with F-16s after this. It will take a year or so for the pilots to get trained, but their air force will be much more modern and compatible with NATO. The US has something like 4000 F-16 in mothballs that can be put back into service in a matter of weeks.
Russian troops in the north are starving, their convoy is stuck dead in the water, they are running out of smart weapons, their vehicles are breaking down or being abandoned all over Ukraine, and their air force is a wet squib. Their military may be large, but it's quality is on par with the Arab armies Israel has fought over the years.
I've been surprised at how bad they are, and most of the experts I read are too. I knew the Russian military was not as good as most of NATO, but I didn't know they were this bad.
I absolutely, positively do not want to find out, but if all their other equipment is so poorly maintained and poor quality, I wonder how bad their ICBMs are? They have been sitting unused for many decades at this point. The warheads have to be renewed from time to time (the fissionable material degrades). Of course USAF doctrine keeps up on the maintenance like clockwork, and I'm sure France and the UK do the same. Who knows what state Russia's arsenal is in?
Again, it's one of those things I (and probably everybody) does not want to find out. But I was wondering about that earlier.
Isn't the tall chap Bashar al-Assad ?
Does this make it two Su-34 lost by the Russians ? Using that aircraft to drop dumb bombs in this environment is lunacy
I think you're right. I thought he looked familiar.
I have heard about 2 Su-34s brought down so far.
The rumors are the Russians used up all their smart munitions so they are using their best fighter bomber to drop dumb munitions willy nilly.
As a follow up to the post earlier about Russians emigrating. Aeroflot has now stopped all external flights with the exception of those to Belarus. Thereby limiting the possibility of leaving even if you could afford it.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Re: no-Fly zone discussion
Understanding that leads to worse scenarios. "Let's talk about No-fly zones and other options..."
Great YT video. I watch them at x1.75 speed (lower right gear icon to change speed)
Understanding that leads to worse scenarios. "Let's talk about No-fly zones and other options..."
Great YT video. I watch them at x1.75 speed (lower right gear icon to change speed)
Interested in others’ thoughts about this.
Putin and the Nuclear End Game
https://www.thebulwark.com/putin-and-the-nuclear-end-game/?amp
Putin and the Nuclear End Game
https://www.thebulwark.com/putin-and-the-nuclear-end-game/?amp
Russian State TV Just Blew Up Putin’s ‘Nazi Ukraine’ Bullsh*t
https://www.t
This was an interesting article. It helped me understand Putin’s reference to de-Nazification. In short, it is just a purposeful branding of an enemy with an emotional label for propaganda and disinformation - in this case aimed at the Russian population, to help them process/support what their government is doing. I read this before I read the Bulwark article on nuclear end game. I am (scarily) coming to the conclusion, that the ruling parties in Russia are so far down the rabbit hole that they won’t see logic or reason from current actions, ie, stymieing their assault, exposing their military weakness; it will not deter them from their objective and they may be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons to achieve it. I believe that needs to be met with a red line in a clear and decisive manner. Perhaps fear is the only motivator that would propel those in Russia who could stop this, to do so?
https://www.t
This was an interesting article. It helped me understand Putin’s reference to de-Nazification. In short, it is just a purposeful branding of an enemy with an emotional label for propaganda and disinformation - in this case aimed at the Russian population, to help them process/support what their government is doing. I read this before I read the Bulwark article on nuclear end game. I am (scarily) coming to the conclusion, that the ruling parties in Russia are so far down the rabbit hole that they won’t see logic or reason from current actions, ie, stymieing their assault, exposing their military weakness; it will not deter them from their objective and they may be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons to achieve it. I believe that needs to be met with a red line in a clear and decisive manner. Perhaps fear is the only motivator that would propel those in Russia who could stop this, to do so?
scottf200
Well-Known Member
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
In case someone missed it:
Retired Admiral William McRaven
Former Commander of the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM)
Retired Admiral William McRaven
Former Commander of the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM)
scottf200
Well-Known Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
So Russian air foece losses as of 5-Mar are:
- 39 planes
- 40 helicopters
Per this link they had approx 300 modern combat aircraft in the area pre-invasion, which I think means fixed wing aircraft. If so they have already lost over 10% of their fixed wing aviation and it would appear a similar fraction of their rotary fleet. And aircrew. These losses are even greater than the ~5% troop losses (KIA) so far.
Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?
More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.
rusi.org
Each morning I wake up thinking ok Russia will surely have made some progress today and each morning, they haven’t taken major objectives.
If Ukraine can hold out for another week or two, as bad as it’s going to sound, Putin will just bomb the hell out of the country and in two weeks declare “the Ukraine threat has been disabled” and move his troops out of Ukraine. The country will be left in rubbles unfortunately.
But I really don’t see how the Russian economy and Putins own military logistics/supply survives longer than 2 weeks from this point. Both are already breaking down faster than I thought they would and with each passing day, it becomes more apparent how weak the Russian army is.
If Ukraine can hold out for another week or two, as bad as it’s going to sound, Putin will just bomb the hell out of the country and in two weeks declare “the Ukraine threat has been disabled” and move his troops out of Ukraine. The country will be left in rubbles unfortunately.
But I really don’t see how the Russian economy and Putins own military logistics/supply survives longer than 2 weeks from this point. Both are already breaking down faster than I thought they would and with each passing day, it becomes more apparent how weak the Russian army is.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
First, @wdolson , I want to say thank you for your very detailed posts regarding the Ukraine situation, I find them very valuable and look forward to reading them and reviewing the links you post.
Second, I'm wondering if Russia is not using it's best equipment (Planes, Missiles, tanks, etc) so they they dont 'show their hand' to the western countries and NATO. But the more I think about it though, I think everyone over estimated Russia's military capability and while they do have nukes, their conventional military is extremely lacking and outdated. It seems like Ukraine keeps finding military vehicles stripped of their important/valuable equipment but I am starting to wonder if they never had much of it in the first place. Maybe AA missile tubes filled 1/3 of the capacity, high tech radar never installed, not using digital encrypted communications, etc.
CLK350
Member
Yes, that's why it would make sense to also send Starlink terminals to Putin's Russian opponents in Russia, even some of Putin's inner circle so they can see the uncensored views - which I'm sure is being figured out by Elon.
