Russia/Ukraine conflict

[MC3OZ]

If the west can give Ukraine weapons, why can't they give them fighter planes?

This issue is taking off from a NATO airfield and entering airspace contested by Russia,

Russia is looking for any excuse to blame NATO for the war and claim, they are involved.

I've thought of towing the planes secretly across the border, even partially disassembling them and reconstructing in Ukraine,

Nothing to see here Putin .. just a shipment of spare parts

But this needs to be done in a way Russia can't detect or disrupt.

More drones, missiles and anti-aircraft systems are easier to do,

Where a city is encircled and the water supply is cut off, planes can stop the bombing, but ultimately Ukraine needs to counter-attack to liberate the city.

Ukraine is slowly counter-attacking around Kharkiv, but it seems like it will be a slow process.

 

[nativewolf]

Missile shield protects against ICBMs and SLBMs.

Russia’s bombers aren’t stealth either.

Also, if you can build a brilliant pebbles system, you could also build/combine it with a visual/IR/SAR mega constellation that when combined with recognition software could track the entire world’s military assets simultaneously in real time.

SAR might even be able track submarines!

You could also use starship as a weapons delivery system. A “squadron” of 12 of them could deliver 1200 tonnes of tungsten rods per sortie.

This is what I mean when I say that reusable spacelift and drones are going to obsolete most modern military equipment.

I've thought from my legal study days that space weaponization is simply a matter of time, treaty or not. It was not practical so treaties were really paper instruments. Now, with Starship the situation has changed and sadly I think it is a prisoners dilemma situation. First to weaponize wins. I don't think you'd use it deliver weapons to earth. You'd use it to push tens of thousands of kinetic weapon satellites into a GSO. Then remove others satellites. I believe it would also be effective vs any hypersonic weapon, you'd just plot a trajectory and path and send 100 to bracket the point. Anyhow, a bit depressing topic on a thread with enough depressing things already.

 

[nativewolf]

Russia has good long range air defence, I don't know if any of the Ukrainian planes would make it all the way to Moscow.

With no peace treaty, I think Ukraine may eventually win the war, but it could take up to 1 year to happen,.

The full implications of a war like this lasting for a year need to be factored in, it will probably be even more intense for the next 2-3 months, and/or Russia will get desperate and resort to tactical nukes..

The worst peace treaty is better than the best war. There are no good wars, and especially not when civilian populations are being bombed in cities with no electricity and water supply.

Drones are probably taking care of the convoy, it looked like 2 separate strikes 1-2 days ago I imagine they can do more, but destroying tanks closer to Kyiv is probably the priority.

Russia has imposed capital controls to Sept 9th. Does that tell people anything? Could be they finally figured out it would be a long slog.

 

[nativewolf]

His real name is Justin King. He’s what’s called an adversarial journalist. He’s also an ex-private military contractor. He comes from a military family, born in Japan. He’s spent time in jail as a result of some of his military “work.”

• He’s an activist and an anarchist. He’s left-leaning (I think) but as opposed to many left-leaning activists of the Democratic Socialist ilk who are agitating for more government involvement and caretaking, he’s looking for less. He’s more of a survivalist.
• He’s also heavy into conservation – especially of wolves.
• I’m still baffled as to exactly what he’s about. But for anyone who is curious about politics – both global and domestic – and who is skeptical about current news (from all sources and political leanings), this is an intriguing new voice to add to the mix.
• I was not expecting to hear what I heard him say based on how he looks and sounds (and he often references that disconnect).

The last line is for bhzmark.

He's a youtuber looking for $. The family that reintroduced the wolf into Yellowstone are clients of ours, fyi, and advisors. Good folk. Anyway, General Petraeus gave an interesting discussion, the economists folks another view point. Both the European centric Economist and the very American Petareus are informed having been there and done that (in different ways). A wannabe soldier of fortune on youtube is not someone I'd suggest turning to, heck there are two posters here with much better references. One was in eastern europe in 89, in SE Asia in 90s etc. Another has been all over the world. Generally if a guy had a gun on the ground in the country in question and fired it...he's not the guy to listen to on policy.

In Benghazi the islamic terrorist army was there to kill Stevens (great great guy). Not the two navy seals sent to protect him. It was Stevens that was a threat to the Islamic terrorists. If you want to understand what's really happening find someone like Stevens (RETUNED PEACE CORPS VOLUNTEER) who spoke the local languages, who had been stationed in Morocco, who knew arab tribal alliances, and who organized the killing of Ghadafi and the destruction of his army without the loss of an American life or more than a few million in expenses (he got Italy to pay the rest) and who did that without a single navy seal guarding his life when it was completely at risk- he was alone.

THAT is who to listen to if you truly care to understand the dynamics of Ukraine. Not saying that all returned peace corps volunteers go into a line of work that involves them taking subs into dangerous lands, they often become teachers, bankers, farmers, researchers, some work overseas the rest of their life. I'm saying that a returned Peace Corps Volunteer would be able to help you understand how Ukrainians think, maybe how Russians think, and would understand how to discuss this with you in a way that should make sense to you. That's really the job of the peace corps. Help other countries understand America, help Americans understand other countries. See if there is a RPCV association in Oregon (sure there is) and see if they have some volunteers that served in Ukraine. Reach out, buy a few beers or a pizza. Make a friend, learn something. It's hit and miss like any interaction with the society at large, meet a 2-3. Stevens was the real adventurer, we miss him. Somewhere I suspect there is a Stevens in the State Dept or some other organization in DC that is advising Biden.

 

[wdolson]

Anyone know why the Ukrainian air force haven't bombed Moscow to get back at Putin?

If 40 million Ukrainian citizens waved white flags and walked up to the 40 mile long convoy and said they want to surrender, it would be over a million people per mile. How would the Russians handle that? Or if they all decided to take Putin's offer and go into Russia. How would their infrastructure handle that. The US Mexican border has only a fraction of that and has trouble placing people on planes in the middle of the night to get them dispursed.
Would Putin just kill them all and be worse than Hitler or would his economy take a major hit from the cost of keeping them in his country?

While a novel thought experiment, I don't think it would work out very well in the real world. Putin would likely send them home unarmed and them occupy the country which is now completely disarmed.

Getting NATO involved in the conflict would be a big win for Putin.

Right now, war against Ukraine is really not popular in Russia, that's why the whole operation was kept secret until the very beginning.

If NATO gets involved, he can say that war is between Russia and NATO, instead of Russia and Ukraine. And russian public would buy this.

Getting NATO involved would be a mixed blessing for Putin. On the one hand he would get the Russian people on his side, but on the other the Russian army is scared to death of facing the US Army. More than any army in the world.

Didn’t Hitler do something like this with false flag ops on the border with Poland bck in 1939?

Yes, Putin tried to gin up the same sort of thing Hitler did with Poland in 1939. It was even less successful now.

 

[madodel]

Biden sends two Patriot missile batteries to Poland after calling plan to send all their MIG-29 jets to Ukraine 'unworkable': VP Harris will arrive in Warsaw today as 'hand-to-hand' combat breaks out in Kyiv suburbs

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501723064865902598

This is good news, I've got some faith in Ukrainians developing and manufacturing some fairly handy weapons.

They have a bit of a tech/space industry, parts supply isn't a problem, and motivation isn't a problem.

 

[wdolson]

Honestly, if it wasn’t for both Elon Musk and fracking, the west would be completely screwed right now.

Elon/Tesla probably pulled forward peak oil demand by at least five years by proving you can make electric cars that don’t suck and produce them for less money. Also ended the west’s dependence on Russia for space launch and leapfrogged the world to wholesale dominance of the sector.

North America being a net energy exporter gives the west huge geopolitical leverage. I know fracking isn’t popular here, but if the US needed to import ~70% of its oil like it did back in the Bush years, we would currently be living in a 1939 nightmare world.

The bad news is that we still need oil and will for the next few decades at least. There are solutions to reduce the use of oil like EVs, but it's going to take time to spin up production.

Oil plunges as much as 17% as UAE says support output hike | REUTERS

Oil prices fall most in 2 years as UAE supports output hike

Global oil prices fell on Wednesday by the most in nearly two years after OPEC member the United Arab Emirates said it supported pumping more oilinto a market roiled by supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

USA supplies concerns instantly vanished. EU will probably get the oil they need too.

It's the geopolitical game the US has been playing for years to manipulate the price of oil to punish one country or another.

I'd be surprised if NATO, or even just the U.S. couldn't get rid of Putin in short order.

Putin has hiding in Russia's equivalent of NORAD. Russia is also the largest country on Earth. Lots of places to hide.

Russia has good long range air defence, I don't know if any of the Ukrainian planes would make it all the way to Moscow.

With no peace treaty, I think Ukraine may eventually win the war, but it could take up to 1 year to happen,.

The full implications of a war like this lasting for a year need to be factored in, it will probably be even more intense for the next 2-3 months, and/or Russia will get desperate and resort to tactical nukes..

The worst peace treaty is better than the best war. There are no good wars, and especially not when civilian populations are being bombed in cities with no electricity and water supply.

Drones are probably taking care of the convoy, it looked like 2 separate strikes 1-2 days ago I imagine they can do more, but destroying tanks closer to Kyiv is probably the priority.

The Ukrainians don't have any long range aircraft to attack Moscow.

This attack the Russians are building up for on Kyiv has all the signs of a hail mary pass. They don't have the infrastructure to keep the army in the field all that long. They are pressing civilian vehicles into service trying to keep the army fed. They are hoping the Ukrainians will just roll over and surrender if Kyiv falls and they hope the Ukrainian defense of Kyiv is weaker than it looks combined with their forces perform better than they have so far.

They are trying to pull off an urban assault with a smaller force than the defenders' force. That's got a very low probability of success. The chances Ukraine will give up if Kyiv falls is also zero. Zelensky is far more dangerous to Russia dead than alive. He will be a martyr and the Russians don't seem to realize that, or they are just hoping he won't be.

I don't see this lasting a year. Russia may refuse to strike a peace deal which will leave Ukrainians hunting down the remnants of their army and their economy continue to spiral, but the main fighting will probably be over in a few weeks. Especially in the north. In the south the campaign may drag on longer, but attrition is eating away at the Russian forces there too.

 

[Alset Srotom]

This forum never ceases to amaze. We have:

Battery Chemistry Specialists
Economic Advisers
Virologists
Market Analysts
AI Scientists
And now Strategic Warfare Consultants

 

[wdolson]

If the west can give Ukraine weapons, why can't they give them fighter planes?
Not following the logic.
Giving planes is not the same as participating in the no-fly zone, which Putin has drawn a red line on.

Poland should auction off the MIGs and make sure they are purchased by Ukraine for $1 each.

Russia has been putting intense pressure on some eastern European countries especially when it comes to aircraft. They know getting more aircraft would be a game changer for Ukraine.

He's a youtuber looking for $. The family that reintroduced the wolf into Yellowstone are clients of ours, fyi, and advisors. Good folk. Anyway, General Petraeus gave an interesting discussion, the economists folks another view point. Both the European centric Economist and the very American Petareus are informed having been there and done that (in different ways). A wannabe soldier of fortune on youtube is not someone I'd suggest turning to, heck there are two posters here with much better references. One was in eastern europe in 89, in SE Asia in 90s etc. Another has been all over the world. Generally if a guy had a gun on the ground in the country in question and fired it...he's not the guy to listen to on policy.

In Benghazi the islamic terrorist army was there to kill Stevens (great great guy). Not the two navy seals sent to protect him. It was Stevens that was a threat to the Islamic terrorists. If you want to understand what's really happening find someone like Stevens (RETUNED PEACE CORPS VOLUNTEER) who spoke the local languages, who had been stationed in Morocco, who knew arab tribal alliances, and who organized the killing of Ghadafi and the destruction of his army without the loss of an American life or more than a few million in expenses (he got Italy to pay the rest) and who did that without a single navy seal guarding his life when it was completely at risk- he was alone.

THAT is who to listen to if you truly care to understand the dynamics of Ukraine. Not saying that all returned peace corps volunteers go into a line of work that involves them taking subs into dangerous lands, they often become teachers, bankers, farmers, researchers, some work overseas the rest of their life. I'm saying that a returned Peace Corps Volunteer would be able to help you understand how Ukrainians think, maybe how Russians think, and would understand how to discuss this with you in a way that should make sense to you. That's really the job of the peace corps. Help other countries understand America, help Americans understand other countries. See if there is a RPCV association in Oregon (sure there is) and see if they have some volunteers that served in Ukraine. Reach out, buy a few beers or a pizza. Make a friend, learn something. It's hit and miss like any interaction with the society at large, meet a 2-3. Stevens was the real adventurer, we miss him. Somewhere I suspect there is a Stevens in the State Dept or some other organization in DC that is advising Biden.

In western militaries the enlisted are trained to think tactically and the officers strategically and logistically. Someone who was enlisted in the US military probably has a good handle on the tactics of whatever their discipline was, but they were never trained to think of the big picture.

Anyone who has been flag rank (general or admiral) is a graduate of the US war college which requires in depth study about how wars happen, logistics, and strategy. All very big picture stuff. I consider those sources to be more reliable about what's going on in the big picture of the war.

In Senate testimony with General Milley a US Senator was going on about people reading Karl Marx like reading it would brainwash you and make you a communist. Milley pointed out that Marx is required reading at the war college and every flag officer in the US military has read it. None are communists.

Professional militaries take the idea of know your enemy (and potential enemies) well.

 

[stopcrazypp]

LIVE: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Attacking Chernobyl Power Grid

“I must note with great regret that the Ukrainian nationalists committed another provocation, an extremely dangerous provocation," the Russian Deputy Defense Minister said.

www.telesurenglish.net

This might be a better option than the planes.

Looking them up, these are like the stingers already provided by the US, too short ranged to cover the gaps that Ukraine is trying to fill. They are looking for something with medium to high altitude capability that can fight against fighters. Plus they can't do ground attacks with these from the sky (while fighters can).

 

[stopcrazypp]

This issue is taking off from a NATO airfield and entering airspace contested by Russia,

Russia is looking for any excuse to blame NATO for the war and claim, they are involved.

I've thought of towing the planes secretly across the border, even partially disassembling them and reconstructing in Ukraine,

Nothing to see here Putin .. just a shipment of spare parts

But this needs to be done in a way Russia can't detect or disrupt.

More drones, missiles and anti-aircraft systems are easier to do,

Where a city is encircled and the water supply is cut off, planes can stop the bombing, but ultimately Ukraine needs to counter-attack to liberate the city.

Ukraine is slowly counter-attacking around Kharkiv, but it seems like it will be a slow process.

I think the US plan was likely to sneak them across the border in some way. Poland just outright announcing that they would be flown from the NATO Allied Air Command base in Ramstein, Germany into Ukraine is a horrible idea, as it gives Russia a very strong case this is NATO intervention. Other NATO nations are also unlikely to agree with it. Not sure what Poland was thinking with this, especially without consulting with the US beforehand.

If the operation was going to happen, the best way to have done it is to do it secretly and announce it later after it was done. Not to give Russians a heads up where there can be interference.

 

[nativewolf]

I think the US plan was likely to sneak them across the border in some way. Poland just outright announcing that they would be flown from the NATO Allied Air Command base in Ramstein, Germany into Ukraine is a horrible idea, as it gives Russia a very strong case this is NATO intervention. Other NATO nations are also unlikely to agree with it. Not sure what Poland was thinking with this, especially without consulting with the US beforehand.

If the operation was going to happen, the best way to have done it is to do it secretly and announce it later after it was done. Not to give Russians a heads up where there can be interference.

Yes Poland blew it. Poland could have just sold them.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think the US plan was likely to sneak them across the border in some way. Poland just outright announcing that they would be flown from the NATO Allied Air Command base in Ramstein, Germany into Ukraine is a horrible idea, as it gives Russia a very strong case this is NATO intervention. Other NATO nations are also unlikely to agree with it. Not sure what Poland was thinking with this, especially without consulting with the US beforehand.

If the operation was going to happen, the best way to have done it is to do it secretly and announce it later after it was done. Not to give Russians a heads up where there can be interference.

The Ukrainian defence mister has asked people to keep quiet about weapon supply from other countries..

I think the Western governments are saying far too much, maybe in this case to pre-test the Russian reaction.

 

[madodel]

Yes Poland blew it. Poland could have just sold them.

I'm sure the CIA has pilots who could steal these briefly unguarded jets and fly them to Ukraine. No one is going to tell us anything about this now. It will be revealed in a book years after this ends. But yes Poland didn't help this.

 

[JRP3]

Part of the problem may be that the replacement F-16's that Poland wanted are already promised to Taiwan

Taiwan dismisses talk of US F-16V jet swap with Ukraine and Poland

Island’s defence ministry says it’s still on track to get its 66 fighters by 2026.

www.scmp.com

 

[stopcrazypp]

Part of the problem may be that the replacement F-16's that Poland wanted are already promised to Taiwan

Taiwan dismisses talk of US F-16V jet swap with Ukraine and Poland

Island’s defence ministry says it’s still on track to get its 66 fighters by 2026.

www.scmp.com

That rumor was largely based on this passage, in this NY Times report:
"There are numerous practical questions, including how to provide replacement planes to Poland and how to get the Polish planes to Ukraine. The next tranche of F-16s for export are set to go to Taiwan, American officials said, and they are reluctant to delay them."
U.S. is exploring how to send Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine.

This has blown up in Chinese media (by largely KMT aligned Taiwanese media like TVBS) as US considering giving F-16s earmarked for Taiwan to Poland (when it's actually the opposite, we are unwilling to).
用我F-16先援？ 紐時：美考慮轉送波蘭助烏
Video associated with article has close to 200k views, among the top in their video selection in recent days.

Here's an article pointing out TVBS is largely pro-KMT (which itself is more aligned with mainland China given they still support eventual unification, while the current DPP party in power in Taiwan opposes):
The legacy of the 2005 KMT chairmanship election - Taipei Times

Note SCMP has recently been bought by Alibaba in China in 2016, and since then their editorial direction has headed to more pro-China (with rumors China is looking to solidify this further by pressuring Alibaba to sell to a Chinese government controlled entity).
South China Morning Post - Wikipedia

Reality is that US has no need to provide brand new planes at this moment (plus brand new planes will take too long for delivery to fill in the gaps in Poland's defense), used planes would be fine. Poland is providing used planes that they got for cheap anyways. Getting a (presumably free or close) upgrade to F-16s would be a bonus regardless, especially if Poland is offloading all the risks of getting them into Ukraine onto the US (while getting credit for it in the world stage).

I also saw other suggestions that Poland's recent moves might be explained by them being ruled by a right wing party that previously may have benefited from the same Russian backed election meddling that Trump previously did.
Was Polish scandal a Russian test for US election tampering?
And they are trying to curry favor in the EU with right wing factions that are more pro-Russia to achieve the direction they want the EU to go.
Why is Poland’s ruling party building closer links with right-wing Eurosceptic groups?
However, I don't have familiarity on Poland's politics, so can't say much further, just pointing out I saw these suggestions that might explain some Polish moves that seem bizarre.

 

[wdolson]

I'm sure the CIA has pilots who could steal these briefly unguarded jets and fly them to Ukraine. No one is going to tell us anything about this now. It will be revealed in a book years after this ends. But yes Poland didn't help this.

I have thought a solution would be to allow the Ukrainians to steal them (with a nod a wink). The Poles can make a bunch of noise about it, but let it happen.

Part of the problem may be that the replacement F-16's that Poland wanted are already promised to Taiwan

Taiwan dismisses talk of US F-16V jet swap with Ukraine and Poland

Island’s defence ministry says it’s still on track to get its 66 fighters by 2026.

www.scmp.com

The US has around 3900 F-16s in storage. There are also 1300 F-15s in storage.

It will take time to bring the F-16s out of storage and convert them to the Taiwan specs, but Taiwan is not a critical problem right now. The odds of China invading Taiwan anytime soon is probably the lowest in a long time. China is watching what the world is doing to Russia and they are laying low.

Additionally China doesn't have much of an amphibious navy yet. They have just commissioned their first ships in an amphibious naval expansion. The Hainan, lead ship of a class of 8 LHDs (Landing Helicopter Dock) was commissioned in April 2021 and the Guangxi was commissioned in December. These are comparable to the USS Wasp and USS America class ships in the USN.

Under war conditions a warship can go from commissioning to ready for war in a few months, but it usually takes a year or more, especially for a more complex ship like a carrier. The Chinese have zero experience with amphibious warfare and any landing they do on Taiwan would be opposed. The Chinese have learned from watching the US and they are professionalizing their military along US lines, but they have a ways to go.

They are building the capability of invading Taiwan, but any invasion is off in the future. Taiwan can go a few more months to a year without the F-16s.

 

[AZRI11]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501787807223885829

 

[stopcrazypp]

I have thought a solution would be to allow the Ukrainians to steal them (with a nod a wink). The Poles can make a bunch of noise about it, but let it happen.

The US has around 3900 F-16s in storage. There are also 1300 F-15s in storage.

It will take time to bring the F-16s out of storage and convert them to the Taiwan specs, but Taiwan is not a critical problem right now. The odds of China invading Taiwan anytime soon is probably the lowest in a long time. China is watching what the world is doing to Russia and they are laying low.

Additionally China doesn't have much of an amphibious navy yet. They have just commissioned their first ships in an amphibious naval expansion. The Hainan, lead ship of a class of 8 LHDs (Landing Helicopter Dock) was commissioned in April 2021 and the Guangxi was commissioned in December. These are comparable to the USS Wasp and USS America class ships in the USN.

Under war conditions a warship can go from commissioning to ready for war in a few months, but it usually takes a year or more, especially for a more complex ship like a carrier. The Chinese have zero experience with amphibious warfare and any landing they do on Taiwan would be opposed. The Chinese have learned from watching the US and they are professionalizing their military along US lines, but they have a ways to go.

They are building the capability of invading Taiwan, but any invasion is off in the future. Taiwan can go a few more months to a year without the F-16s.

I argue the opposite. Poland can be given used F-16s given Poland is trading in used planes anyways (even if it is temporary and Poland eventually gets new ones).

Taiwan has no use for used F-16s. They already have 141 F-16 A/Bs that are being converted to F-16Vs (64 were recently finished):
Taiwan rolls out upgraded F-16V jets
They also have a mix of other fighters (129 fairly modern F-CK-1C/D with first flight 1989, 55 Mirage 2000-5EI/DIs, and 5 RF-5Es, and a bunch of F-5s largely as trainers). They bought the 66 new F-16 Block 70s because they needed newer airframes with modern tech.
Republic of China Air Force - Wikipedia

Keep in mind the initial development funding for the F-16V upgrade was provided by Taiwan and US is piggy backing on that to offer Block 70s to other countries, as well as for upgrades to its own USAF F16 fleet that was recently announced.
First F-16V Developed for Taiwan Requirement Takes Flight
Meet the F-16V: The Most Technologically Advanced 4th Generation Fighter in the World
US Air Force Undertakes 'World's Biggest Upgradation Program' For F-16 Fighter Jets; Says Warplanes Will Fly Upto 2070
Although there were some suggestions by Taiwan media that Taiwan might get royalties, I have seen no US source that mentions that possibility.
Taiwan earns money off Korean fighter jet purchase | Taiwan News | 2018-02-23 14:07:00

That means if the US lets Poland cut in line, not only is Taiwan unlikely to be getting royalties, they also are put further back in line in a program that might not have even existed if they did not provide the initial demand.

While perhaps there is no immediate military urgency for the planes, it would be a huge blow to Taiwan resolve if it is seen that US is giving them lower priority, especially when the USA's official position is more focus in the Pacific, especially while China aggression in terms of flying military planes into Taiwan's ADIZ has reached an all time high. It has long been the propaganda war by mainland China that the US is not dependable and this only adds more to the support to that position.

A follow up report by the NY Times to the original one pointed out the strategic importance of Taiwan:
"But the deal is contingent on giving Poland, in return, far more capable, American-made F-16s, an operation made more complicated by the fact that many of those fighters are promised to Taiwan — where the United States has greater strategic interests."
Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps