Russia/Ukraine conflict

[nativewolf]

The words change but the self-serving policies do not. Remember what you studied about colonies? How about trade agreements and treaties. The Silk Road initiatives combine all of those elements to a degree but direct Chinese financing of infrastructure is the key element.

Your historical suggestions are incorrect. You're talking about a term while the subject is content.

Colonies were from the get go an idiotic move and exactly support my arguments. The expenditures almost always exceeded investment. The countries in Europe with the greatest economic growth did so because they had no colonies. Various German States, Denmark, etc. Colonies In Africa, were not just risky but a complete farce economically. In Latin American the silver from Mexico and Boliva financed the trade with Asia but it actually never really benefited Spain. In fact, Spains economy moved sideways for centuries and not just because of wars. You couldn't make a better argument for abandoning the "silk road" development than the experience of Europe with colonization. It is more fundamental than that though, it is a nationalistic policy not supported by economic rationale.

Let the market sort it out, things like the silk road are actually the foundation of Adam Smiths arguments. It was mercantilism that he was arguing against. The silk road is a form of state supported mercantilism and is doomed to inefficient allocation of resources as anything else.

 

[nativewolf]

It helps to have some perspective. It is necessary, especially with China and Russia, to understand their histories (Most of us probably know that Russia owned Alaska and settled as far South as Northern California, before they sold Alaska to the US). The interplay between China and the Far East of Russia has operated for centuries, so a quippy cartoon or two do not begin to describe the reality:

The Russian Far East and China’s Northeast: A Decade in the Shadow of the Belt and Road Initiative - The Asan Forum

The Russian Far East and China’s Northeast: A Decade in the Shadow of the Belt and Road Initiative Gaye Christoffersen In 2013, the same year the Silk Road […]

theasanforum.org

The linked brief article describes a few recent highlights, there is always shared interest and perspective difference between them ALWAYS. Inherently Vladivostok has more trade with China than does , say, Novosibirsk or Saint Petersburg, just as Saint Petersburg deals quite closely with Finland.
China will not and has not 'colonized' Eastern Russia any more than China has 'colonized' Walmart.
China today is much more like the USA of the early 1950's that we care to admit. When any party, whoever they are, have gigantic influence over others, strange things happen. The winners carefully brush away their blunders.

Xi's China is in just about the same positions as was Eisenhower's USA. Just think about the parallels without, if possible, preconceptions. Then view the perspective as an Iranian, a Saudi, an Indian or Pakistani, a Vietnamese or a citizens of any South or Central American country. After that, it is a trifle more difficult to demonize China, or even Russia. Individual leaders are capable of destroying almost anything, more so today, perhaps.

I will not and cannot defend any given politician 'leading' in the current was, with the exception of Ukrainian leaders, and the current leaders of present day countries of the Baltic and those adjoining Ukraine. Some of them are deeply flawed, as are most. politicians and other people. All of them are standing for the right of countries to select their own destiny. Then there are many Russians who actively protest, not a traditional Russian response.

What we all need to understand is that not any of these things can withstand superficial generalizations.
Of that come really horrible consequences.

Oh I think the cartoon sums up my view just fine. No skin off my back what happens between Russia and China but it wasn't me making the cartoon and if someone is making the cartoon I'd say it is generally accepted. And you may ask yourself why? Go to Birobidzhan this May and tell us what it looks like to you, Russians leaving and Chinese moving in is what I think you'll see. We looked at the forestry situation there..gosh a decade ago now. Wow...rough stuff wild west sort of. But Chinese moving in and Russians leaving...and old. I don't see how some towns survive as Russian towns much longer.

To me it looks much more like ...as an analogy, Texas. American settlers moved in while Hispanic settlers were selling and moving back to Mexico. In 1950s you never saw 100k American farmers headed to Central America or Brazil and bringing with them 500k contract American workers. Even the bananna republics never had serious American feet on ground, they were just exploitive situations that actually were horrible investments. Horrible. If they'd put that money into IBM they'd have become truly wealthy and it wasn't until they exited that they ever made real $. Don't get me started on the bananna republics and fruit companies. Suffice it to say Leon Black family was involved...apple grew right beside the tree.

 

[petit_bateau]

Latest former Ukrainian minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501686139157192704

https://www.facebook.com/arsen.avakov.1/posts/4998174646939268

Summary: 200 thousand people were involved in the invasion. Loss of the aggressor so far on the morning of the 14th day of war:
Killed - 10 235 (regular forces) + 2400 (of the composition of the CEC active with the enemy) total about = 12,635 (according to the Russian data)
Wounded - about 35,000
About 3,000 captive
The total loss of the Russian Federation military forces involved in the aggression = about 50,635 people. out of 200k. 25%

 

[elasalle]

A spokesman for US European Command said in a statement Tuesday night that the US was sending two new Patriot missile batteries to Poland as defensive weapons to counter any potential threat to US and NATO allies amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Patriots are air defense missile systems designed to counter and destroy incoming short-range ballistic missiles, advanced aircraft and cruise missiles.

 

[Skipdd]

A spokesman for US European Command said in a statement Tuesday night that the US was sending two new Patriot missile batteries to Poland as defensive weapons to counter any potential threat to US and NATO allies amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Patriots are air defense missile systems designed to counter and destroy incoming short-range ballistic missiles, advanced aircraft and cruise missiles.

Yes, this complements the one that is already there. As someone upthread observed, Patriots reqiure a lot of infrastructure and training to support. It seems that is already in place in Poland, plus the US has active force personnel there to help.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

There's already a shield over Chernobyl, more exactly a sarcophagus. Problem is, cracking that open salts the earth (well, much of the EU) with a very large DB.

The only people in a position to show Putin the door are in his inner circle, including the autocrats. The West should make Putin's departure a condition of the peace, along with seizing assets sufficient to pay for the recovery.

However, if Putin is so foolish to crack a DB, in reply we should salt his hydrocarbon infrastructure. That ensures he can never use that leverage again (at least for 18K years).

What's a DB?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ Summary: 200 thousand people were involved in the invasion. Loss of the aggressor so far on the morning of the 14th day of war:
Killed - 10 235 (regular forces) + 2400 (of the composition of the CEC active with the enemy) total about = 12,635 (according to the Russian data)
Wounded - about 35,000
About 3,000 captive
The total loss of the Russian Federation military forces involved in the aggression = about 50,635 people. out of 200k. 25%

What does CEC stand for?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

‘Pure genocide’: civilian targets in Mariupol ‘annihilated’ by Russian attacks

Deputy mayor of southern Ukrainian city says people living in ‘medieval conditions’ after week of continuous shelling

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

What does CEC stand for?

DB = Dirty Bomb, i.e. a conventional explosion to spread radioactive material. Generally a poor person's nuclear bomb, the sort of thing that a terrorist might be easily able to make (in comparison to a fission or fusion device). However the risk is that a large nuclear reactor could be targetted and breached, in which case one has a very large dirty bomb, similar in many respects to the Chernobyl incident. The problem is that Russia could very well stage a 'false-flag' operation on a Ukraine reactor then pose as the defender of good things.

CEC = a poor translation of PMC. A PMC is a Private Military Company, i.e. the polite term for mercenaries. The better translation would have been "2400 [killed] ...from PMCs operating together with the enemy". From from the context this may be the military forces of the so-called independent Donbass regions, or it could be pseudo-mercenaries such as the Wagner and Chechen forces. Or both, or also including the Syrians etc who I believe they are trying to fly in. Edit - I should add that there is evidence of the Russians trying to use these as pseudo special forces / shock troops / saboteurs / plainclothes / etc, and they seem to be taking a higher % of casualties than the main force. Some reports are that the Chechens have gone home after taking 50% casualties.

 

[sundaymorning]

Some people here think that the Saudis turning down a convo with Biden is a bad thing, here’s some context to consider:

Saudi and Abu Dhabi 'won't drop oil prices til US backs them in Yemen'

Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan of the U.A.E. have both refused to speak to Joe Biden as the White House tries to find alternatives to Russian oil.

www.dailymail.co.uk

• The Gulf leaders are angry by the White House's seeming failure to back them in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen, and concerned about a new nuclear deal

No thank you Saudis, you’re not going to hold the US of A hostage with your oil to coax us into your battles. Right now the threat is Russia, we’ll gladly pay $7 for gas, in the long term, you’ll lose. $7 gas pushes the mass towards renewables. Good luck fighting your own wars when demand for your oil declines.

Siding with Saudi misinformation at this point is unamerican and untesla. Don’t forget that the Saudis also declined to talk to Elon during the midst of 420. Anyone spilling Saudi bs right now needs to check themselves. Who side are you on?

 

[sundaymorning]

For a bit of comparison, the Battle of Stalingrad a city of 450,000 in 1939, significantly smaller than Kyiv.

At start:
Germans
270,000 experienced troops
3000 artillery
500 tanks
600 aircraft

Soviets:
187,000 soldiers (quite a few green recruits)
2200 artillery
400 tanks
300 aircraft

The Germans assaulted a city much smaller than Kyiv with an experienced force that was larger than the Soviet force defending. The Russians were able to stop the Germans and hold them in a grim battle of attrition that dragged on from August 1942 to February 1943 (interestingly almost the exact same time frame of the Battle of Guadalcanal on the other side of the world).

Both sides fed in more and more troops trying to win the battle. Both sides suffered heavy casualties, but it broke the back of the German army.

The Germans had adequate supply for the assault in the first phase of the battle. There were just too many Russians holding the city to win an easy victory.

The Russians only have about 150,000 troops in Ukraine right now considering their losses. They might have as many as 180,000, but no more than that. A significant percentage of their troops are fighting in other parts of Ukraine. They might be able to scrape together 90,000 for the assault. Their supply situation is terrible which means the troops they are committing are largely underfed, they have been out in sub-freezing weather for two weeks, they are low on fuel and probably low on ammunition.

They are going up against a force that is at least 100,000 regular troops strong backed by close to that many militia with an AK-47 and a few molotov cocktails. Almost all the defenders know their terrain intimately and have had months to dig in.

This isn't an assault, it's a Banzai charge.

I haven’t been back to TMC for a long time, but decided to come back here as I scour the internet for news on Ukraine. I have to say I enjoy reading all your analysis the most, keep up the good work . Regarding Germany’s resupply mission during WW2 when fighting Russia: Hitler and his henchmen were more interested in using their trains to move Jewish prisoners than they were interested in resupplying their army.

 

[sundaymorning]

As much as I like the analysis of the unfolding of the conflict, I am disappointed by musings on how the Russian people must be hating on Putins. Hating on Putin is a minority view, (navalnys small size survey in the relatively cosmopolitan Moscow notwithstanding) and one reason why sanctions may make him move powerful in Russia.

This is a good thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500996394659696640

As a bonus, this thread gives you a lot of insight on Russians economy and why it's politics is the way it is.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501360272442896388

Putin’s propaganda saw support for the invasion of Ukraine at 70% initially, now it sits around 55% as of a few days ago. Putin’s misinformation campaign can only get him so far, his powers are expanded during wartime, but it will end in disaster as the war progresses and Russia runs out of funding. We’ll revisit this convo in 30 days and see where his popularity lies when thousands more of his soldiers are dead/wounded, his citizens unemployed, their stock market remains closed, their currency in tatters, etc.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Putin’s propaganda saw support for the invasion of Ukraine at 70% initially, now it sits around 55% as of a few days ago. Putin’s misinformation campaign can only get him so far, his powers are expanded during wartime, but it will end in disaster as the war progresses and Russia runs out of funding. We’ll revisit this convo in 30 days and see where his popularity lies when thousands more of his soldiers are dead/wounded, his citizens unemployed, their stock market remains closed, their currency in tatters, etc.

And more Russians begin to learn more accurately what is going on in Ukraine.

 

[sundaymorning]

And more Russians begin to learn more accurately what is going on in Ukraine.

You’re absolutely right, and it’s happening in real time. Here’s an article about Russians downloading VNP (virtual private networks) to get information:

More than 4.6 million Russians have downloaded VPNs following media bans: Report - Washington Examiner

Virtual private networks have surged in Russia in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine — and in even greater numbers since the country's crackdown on mass media. In total, the top 10 VPN apps have been downloaded more than 4.6 million times in Russia since the beginning of the invasion Feb...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

Virtual private networks have surged in Russia in the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine — and in even greater numbers since the country's crackdown on mass media.

In total, the top 10 VPN apps have been downloaded more than 4.6 million times in Russia since the beginning of the invasion Feb. 24. This allows Russian users to browse the internet freely despite countrywide bans.

Here’s an article on how activists are sneaking news into Russia:

Activists are using ads to sneak real news to Russians about Ukraine

“We’ve seen the powerful role that civil society can play in telling the story of Ukraine, advocating for its interests, and rallying international support,” says Jack Pearson, a foreign policy communications specialist who previously worked for the UK Foreign Office specializing in digital diplomacy. “Now we’re seeing efforts from communities around the world to break the Kremlin’s information stranglehold, to reach ordinary Russians.”

My analysis is that the greater the lie Putin spins, the greater the setback he’ll face in the end. The longer this drags out, the effectiveness of his misinformation campaign diminishes. Putin is bluffing, Ukraine needs to call his bluff and press on.

 

[sundaymorning]

Former President Donald Trump was on the "Full Send" podcast and when asked about how the war Ukraine could play out.

Guys, there’s more pressing issues to discuss than Ukraine right now according to our former president that we so proudly elected, I’m completely serious about this:

MSN

The economic ramifications from possible birds dying will be ginormous. Imports/exports will cease, oil prices won’t stop rising, may God help us all if the former President is correct.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't think they are going birdspotting

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501973187202064392

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm surprised that the Russians didn't adopt a more constructive approach at the talks in Turkey...

I can only put that down to "delusional pride" or "wishful thinking".

Are things going well for Russia? *Spoiler Alert* - pretty much across the board - NO.

Check out this Twitter handle:- https://twitter.com/mhmck

The Ukrainian counter attack in the north is going very well, making more progress than I expected.

Then we have the soldiers out of action mentioned above:, roughly 50,000 out of the original force of 200,000.

Russian TV bares no relation at all to reality, Russians are installing VPNs, Twitter and Facebook now have Dark Web versions in Russia accessible via the Tor browser. So one way or another Russians will increasingly find out the truth..

The one place the war is going badly for Ukraine is Mauripol, not much can be done to help the city. But even here the city has a large ethnic Russian population, hence to offer from Russia to evacuate people to Russia. If the status quo is preserved, a lot of Russians will die inside Mauripol.

Finally the economic situation can best be descripted as a "train wreck".

Only a very poor gambler chases losses from an impossible position.

 

[EVNow]

All news and numbers coming out of Ukrain and Russia should be taken with liberal helping of salt.

Fog of war + propaganda = nothing is certain.

 

[stopcrazypp]

All news and numbers coming out of Ukrain and Russia should be taken with liberal helping of salt.

Fog of war + propaganda = nothing is certain.

It's also very hard to get a feel of how everyday Russians feel. If Russia did its disinformation war successfully, most people within may feel it is the western powers that are at fault for all of this, and thus even economic collapse may not necessarily threaten Putin's grip on power. There are antiwar protests, but we don't know if that presents majority opinion (much less vast majority).

There may also be the case that is common in many totalitarian governments in which people from the bottom are reluctant to report negative things, so those on the top live in a bubble where it seems everything is going a lot better than it actually is. So they may be making decisions from a different perspective.

 

[EVNow]

It's also very hard to get a feel of how everyday Russians feel. If Russia did its disinformation war successfully, most people within may feel it is the western powers that are at fault for all of this, and thus even economic collapse may not necessarily threaten Putin's grip on power. There are antiwar protests, but we don't know if that presents majority opinion (much less vast majority).

There may also be the case that is common in many totalitarian governments in which people from the bottom are reluctant to report negative things, so those on the top live in a bubble where it seems everything is going a lot better than it actually is. So they may be making decisions from a different perspective.

At this point .. I won’t be surprised if the outcome in 3 months is any of these.
- Ukraine taken over by Russia
- Coup against Putin
- Stalemate
- Russia withdraws after an agreement